pasnownut

2 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

That extended forecast is ridiculous. 80’s on October 11th?



. Pro

I'm just about sick of this sh!t!!

Whistler is getting snow.  Lucky b@stards

Weekend summary...

PSU -L (painful)

Eagles - L (extra painful)     

weather - going back to +departures    

Had a great time in the woods though Saturday.  Guess that'll have to do for now.   

Happy friggin monday.

40 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The sample size is too small. Since 1950, 2004-05 would probably be the closest potential ENSO match.

Yeah I know.  10 isn't a big number, but it you'da said they were all good.....I'd be just fine w/ that

#grasping

Looking forward to your reads as we approach show time. 

Nut

6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Seasonal snowfall for the following winters was as follows:

1889-90: 10.3”
1972-73: 13.3”
1975-76: 18.3”
1996-97: 22.8”
2003-04: 34.6”
2004-05: 27.9”
2011-12: 12.5”

Mean: 20.0”
Median: 18.3”

 

Thanks...I think.

Since your such a great stats guy.........can you pad them...a LOT!!

Ouch, but that was my worry.  Clouds wrung themselves out i guess. lol

In truth, it would be nice to see how those 10 winters looked like regarding major indicies (Enso etc) in relation to how we look as a low end Modoki Nino seems to be appearing more likely.  I'm hoping none of the above have a similar data set.

Appreciate the feedback.

Nut

1 minute ago, sauss06 said:

well, we know how 96 turned out

 

2003 was a good winter, i have 79.5" in my notes with a Miller B February 16/17

2004 i have 43" marked down

'11 was pretty ****ty

the other years i don't have in my journal 

not too shabby.  2 outta 3 aint bad

9 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

As of 11:45 pm, Harrisburg had received 0.29" rain. That brought Harrisburg's total precipitation for 2018 to 50.00". That is only the 8th time on record that Harrisburg has received 50.00" or more precipitation. Seven of those cases have come after 1970. Four have come after 2000. The last such year was 2011 when an annual record of 73.73" precipitation fell. Records go back to 1888.

Thanks for checking in.  Dare i ask how the winters were in those 8 "wetter" years?    

Nut

2 hours ago, canderson said:

I don't see OSU ever having to punt. 

i havent followed that closely....i just like PSU.  thats all.

3 hours ago, sauss06 said:

My wife said something the other day about going out to dinner Saturday night, my daughter said you'll be going by yourself, me and dad are watching the Penn State game  i think i created a monster, i believe she watches and pays more attention to sports then i do.  

 

but like Canderson said, should be perfect weather at kickoff. 

i just saw they're calling for another 3/4" tonight into tomorrow morning for our area. After last night, i had standing water in my yard this morning. The ground is saturated. I see you in Lancaster County as well as a couple other southern counties are under a flood watch.  

 

 

 

 

#getabiggerboat

4 hours ago, sauss06 said:

I don't have a ticket, but i'm thinking of going and tailgating 

someday i'm gonna do it....

4 hours ago, canderson said:

Perfect conditions for the OSU-PSU game to end up like 55-49. 

49-55

fixed 

2 minutes ago, canderson said:

Son of a 

lol

no biggie.  Its nice to have stepped away from the furnace, so to me, I'm fine w/ late september weather.  I have sweatpants on as i type, so thats a win so as it is...

Thought i'd take a peak at the maps and speaking of first flakes....will be in northern PA to celebrate my 25th anniversary at Cedar Run B&B with my lovely wife and looks like i get a little something extra from ol' mo nature.  While this likely doesnt verify, its nice to see blue showing up close to home.  Will trend warmer as we get closer, but thats fine.  Steppin down is good by me.

15 minutes ago, mattie g said:

October snow sucks for every reason one could think of. Let’s give it a miss.

x2

We'll just take some typical October fall w/ a couple dashes of indian summer and refreshing cool/cold fronts to help with the anticipation of the first flakes to show up inside of 240hrs on the maps.  We can all enjoy fall festivities with a little (lot) of spiced cider, Octoberfest of your choice, or some good ol' bourbon to pass the time in search of the first flakes.  

5 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said:

People always get salty about this information. You are a funny man but not very charming. I did not mention global warming but people are assuming that I am pushing an agenda because James Hansen is my profile pic. We are way past the point of being able to pretend that global warming is not already trashing our snowfall totals.

We are also past the point of needing to remind weather hobbyists/mets/pros whatevs.... that in every post you make that global warming is real....

No matter what your version of real is......

That makes you overbearing and more of an alarmist, which seriously diminished any credibility you try to establish.....

just sayin 

Well, it looks like we may have just ended this crazy stretch of heat and humidity, even though it may be temporary.  Just looking forward to opening windows and enjoying the sun.  Even if it does come back, climo helps to take the edge off the heat anyway. #glasshalffull

Happy Hump day y'all!

Nut

Looking like a nothin burger over this way.  Was suspicious of it this morning and i think so far it may just be the right suspicion.  Latest HRR 3k blend of total precip still looks like 2" for much of the susuqu valley but if the radar is any indication, i dont see that happening.

Man...I'm starting to sound like another poster from the land of Yuengling......

17 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Yeah, my concrete driveway was destroyed by this summer and levels here still really high from Gordon.

3 cracks in 6 yr old driveway are now becoming craters......

Gotta fix this fall.

10 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

WPC has us in moderate, last few we were in the slight category...just wondering if they were looking at different stuff. We had river flooding up until Wed and coming off 7 inches last Monday Tues so guessing FFGs are low.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
655 AM EDT Mon Sep 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
The remnants of Florence will track northeast across
Pennsylvania later today into early Tuesday. High pressure will
build into the region Wednesday and Thursday. A dying cold
front is likely to push south across Pennsylvania late Friday,
then stall out just south of the state next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Regional radar loop at 09Z shows the shield of rain associated
with the remnants of Florence approaching southwest Pa. Deep
southerly flow of tropical air will overrun high pressure and
pool of relatively stable air over central Pa, causing rain to
spread northeast across the area, reaching even the northern
tier by afternoon. As surface warm front lifts north, expect
stratiform rain to transition to convective activity across
southern Pa this afternoon. A low cape/high shear scenario appears
to be setting up late today along the southern tier counties,
where the threat of low-topped supercells and eve an isolated
tornado exists.

Main threat remains the possibility of flooding, due in part to
the extremely wet antecedent conditions. Have issued a flash
flood watch for nearly the entire forecast area, with a later
begin time over the eastern counties based on latest HREFV2,
which indicates a low probability of excessive rain until at
least 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
CAMS indicate steadiest stratiform rainfall will shift toward
the NY border tonight, while scattered heavy downpours and
possible tsra appear more likely elsewhere. WPC storm total qpf
ranges from 1-2 inches over the forecast area, which runs close
to FFG/FFH guidance from the marfc. However, given anomalous
pwats and instability noted in the models, believe
significantly higher spots amounts are likely, similar to the
2-4 inch max amounts in the HREFV2.

Will also have to continue to monitor the severe weather threat
tonight over the southern tier counties, where a combination of
instability and shear south of surface low track could support
supercells and even a possible tornado.

Improving conditions will overspread the region from west to
east Tuesday morning, as the surface low tracks passes east of
the state. By early afternoon, the bulk of model guidance have
pushed the low east of Pa. However, the back edge of the showers
will likely lag by a few hours, due to passage of mid level
shortwave. Brightening skies by afternoon should help push
temperatures well into the 70s to near 80F.

33 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Seems wpc is concerned but nws is oddly mehhhhh.

alot of the local ponding that was largely evident last week, seems to have subsided around here.  I'm sure we still are at high saturation levels, but think it fair to say that the dry weekend and sun yesterday has lessened the potential impacts to the Susky valley.  i'd still be nervous if i lived in low lying areas, but my guess is 1-2" wouldnt do anything close to what we've seen.  Beyond that we get what appears a much less dreary pattern with an early fall preview.

23 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

 

I like those tendencies....alot.

29 minutes ago, Voyager said:

 

What we miss on is the exciting rains and events. Since the rainy season started on July 21st. many areas have had out and out deluges. We, on the other hand, were mostly on the moderate side. Duration, and not intensity is what got my location to where it is.

I'd rather an intense deluge than a long, drawn out, dismal event.

I/we get it.  Like maytown said, just bustin ya.  I guess the reality is that MOST of us are in the normal camp and share extremes on rare occasion.  Just dont think you are as "jipped" as you sometimes let off.

Hope your all healed up.  Winters coming and you need to be ready to shovel 

1 minute ago, maytownpawx said:

Well if you have over 52" on the year them stars are aligning a lot...:)

Was thinking the same thing.  He's the best misser i know.

Voyager should change his name to Copernicus.

Onto the next miss........

2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Now you have gone and done it. Now going to have two pages of people arguing back and forth about if one great storm makes a great winter even if the rest of the winter sucked. 

And the correct answer there is that one storm does not make a good winter. 

x2

10 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

We have had just occasional light rain down here near the Harrisburg area today.

i don’t think we have seen the sun since last Thursday or Friday.

at least we don't have the oppressive heat.  Just need to drop the other H.  Looks like frontal boundary mid next week ushers in relief.

Looking at the last couple model cycles, it looks like the MA forum put up the Hurricane defense shield as it retrogrades west right around us and then heads into NY.  Pretty crazy. 

Nut 

18z looks like it was watchin my hamster wheel for next week.