pasnownut

Just now, maytownpawx said:

Fortunately for us, it does look less likely we see significant impacts up here. Unfortunately, our win is gonna be someone else's loss...

Tru dat.

We are all saturated n soggy.  While NC is in crosshairs, my hope is that it gets in and gets out in a more expeditious fashion.

It isn't outside the realm of possibilities that it can still do a lot of damage once it becomes extra-tropical in nature.  We've seen that before, and early next week is the next period to focus on.  

As currently modeled, I could see the frontal boundary mid next week being quite wet as it collides w/ What Flo Was and pulls her outta here.  Thats way too far out to hold much if any merit, but its bouncing around the hamster wheel in my head..

10 hours ago, sauss06 said:

I hope you're correct! 

He may be.  Looking at overnight blend and early am suggest a slightly more southerly track as only GEPS has come slightly north.  Surely not out of the woods but precip max is well south of our area and remains similar from yesterday.  The unfortunate part is that this really wants to just hang out until a frontal boundary looks to push it east mid next week.  So while we may further pad totals, the long duration should help to keep from major flooding concerns being realized IMO.

1 hour ago, MAG5035 said:

The rain has finally started to relent around here, after being non-stop since about this time SATURDAY afternoon. In terms of the flooding on the local rivers this is probably the worst since Ivan in my immediate local area. Lots of road closures. 

322 just reopened today in Northern Lanco after being closed for almost 10 days.  Welcome to the club buddy..

This is getting quite old.  Team GFS Ensemble shifted East w/ precip max and while we get a "refresher", we dont get a shellackin.  I'd say a fair consensus for today's runs that south of Hatteras is not where I'd want to be on Friday.

12 minutes ago, canderson said:

I have a suspicion we miss most all of the moisture, which unfortunately means those south and especially in the Blue Ridges are going to get really hammered with floods. 

While i initially worried about that as well, the NW (yes NW) verbatim, the precip stays tightly wrapped through @ 132 and only opens up slightly before trekking ENE pulling precip shield along w/ it.  GEFS was farthest N solution so I'm looking due to MBY implications.  Other ENS guidance keeps this far enough S for S appalachia Boone/Asheville to get the goods.  

I hope it goos poof today....for all of us.  the whole east coast needs sun....lotsa sun.

Good to see you Mag. 

While Mag has due cause to be alarmed (as we all do after the last few days and what we have in store for today), it does appear that as currently modeled, that Florence hits a wall at the MD line and skirts/retrogrades/stalls (model dependent), but for now, we seem to get into it, but on the more northern side of precip shield.  The stall shown on hrs 96-168 on GEFS would make many bay folks quite nervous.  Infeed up int the bay from NE quad from the atlantic would be nuts.  GEPS has similar look with the stall, but further south into GA Carolinas and would "save the bay".  EPS track from free panels looks like it follows GEPS (or GEPS follows EPS - depending on what model you worship).

Interesting week coming up.  Stay dry if you can...

Nut

edited  to NE quad due to my issues w/ left and right...N....S...blah blah....like i tell my wife when we are driving, just look at my fingers for direction i'm pointing to....and dont listen to me.  LOL  I do that all the time.  

3 hours ago, maytownpawx said:

Saw 5" in 1 hour right here in Lancaster county  in 1983!

I dont remember that...But i'll take it!!

2 hours ago, canderson said:

Nice little storm came through. Hello cold front!

Not a drip here.  Just came in from loading up trailer for cabin, and let me tell ya, that its still swamp @ss sticky down here.  Looks like frontal boundary hangs up just south so will likely take until morn until we get the lower levels scoured out.  Counting the minutes.

BTW....Go Eagles!!

3 hours ago, Superstorm said:

Saw at least 5”/hr in that Nov 2014 LES in Buffalo area. It’s unreal.


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Yeah buddy.  Been to Buffalo once and just missed out by a day or 2 (new years eve a long long time ago).  They can get it done up there as well.

3 hours ago, Wmsptwx said:

I'm in lol...insane rates they get up there. I'm coming down with you guys if another 30 incher looks possible.

Until you've seen 5"/hr rates, ya just havent lived.  Like snow or not, its just something to witness.

Let me paint you a picture.....sideways snow and we had to pull over in Turin as we could'nt see where the intersections were.  Goggles would just fill up w/ snow every 100yds.  You had to go so slow that the sled was sinking and you'd just get stuck...

Blackrock...enjoy every stinkin flake.  I will live vicariously through you pal.

Just now, Wmsptwx said:

Good Luck Steve, need my fellow warm bro healthy for long time to come!

fixed.....

and agreed.

1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said:

Hey, all. This is "blackrock" whose hometown is Lancaster. Well, it is official....I have made the move from Michigan to Redfield, NY on the Tug. Much closer to family in PA again...so will be joining you guys during my travels home in the time to come. Looking forward to 300" snowfall winters!

 

Hey buddy welcome "back"....lol

uh....thats closer to 200" #bragger

I may invite me and my sleds up this year if we get a ratter going round here.  You've been warned.....hehe

1 hour ago, canderson said:

Two things:

1) our friend Steve (@Voyager) is having thyroid surgery tomorrow. He could use good thoughts.

2) Might want to keep an eye on Florence in the Atlantic. Got a bad feeling about her,.

Hope it goes well. 

Hate to say it but we need something notable to change this pattern. Hope Florence gets close enough to do just that. 

17 hours ago, maytownpawx said:

PSU is very young at too many skilled positions to make a serious run. Having said that, there is no player in the country that I want on my team more than McSorley. He is a winner. Period. My wife sensed my apprehension before kickoff Saturday and asked if I was feeling good about the game. I said I was not, but my gut said that Trace wouldn't let them lose. Pretty much accurate on that one.

Not excited about the entire week of weather. 90+ through Thursday and then days of rain. Will it ever end? 

one of these days i will make it up to happy valley for a game.  I hear too many great stories of the fun to be had.....plus i like beer

Not sure how PSU will do but I enjoy watching them for sure.

yeah this week is added onto a pile of 90+weeks w/ crazy humidity.  Not going to know how to act w/ lower humidity days that hopefully are coming soon.

1 hour ago, canderson said:

Penn State probably loses 3 or 4 games. 

To the weather, looks like we're getting another big round of soaking rains starting Thursday. Good news though - the weekend looks like it'll be in the low 70s max for the LSV and the northern tier guys might struggle to hit 65. 

I saw that for this weekend and plan to be up there to enjoy the nice weather.  Hope i need a sweatshirt around the campfire Saturday night.....

25 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

No I did not, and for that i am very thankful. Also grateful we didn't have to evacuate the Beav like Canderson did down at Fedex. 

It turned out to be pretty good football weather except for the humidity. Hats off to App. State for playing their freaking hearts out. Honestly, they deserved to win. 

much closer than I expected (not that i was paying much attention, but the score sorta startled me.  Good to see the smaller schools givin it a go.  Good on them.

28 minutes ago, maytownpawx said:

I feel special today. Lanco is the only county in the CTP area to be under a Heat Advisory. Such joy...

We are special. Im so tired of looking at the inside of my house.  I want to be outside doing stuff, but its just not fun.  You know its bad when my normal warmie buddies, are sick of it....

22 hours ago, canderson said:

This week is going to suck. That is all.

Yeah, looks like we are stuck in the rut for the forseeable future, but at least a few breaks look to be showing up.  We need a wholesale pattern change though.  SER is just relentless.

Figured its no longer spring, so here's a more current thread to play in.

Nut

Hope y'all had a great summer.

Figured it might be a good time to start a new thread as meteo autumn is here.  

Here's to frosty pumpkins and perty colors of autumn.  

Discuss..............

Nut

19 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Maybe, but 88 / 72 wont be hard to come by.

Yeah i guess i find myself grasping for air....cool less humid air.

15 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Don't count on it.

I see the maps and like i said, the worst should SOON be over....no matter how extended the stay of SER is, we are entering a time when climo says 90's are going to be hard to come by.  

11 hours ago, canderson said:

This is NUTS.

As of 6 p.m., KMDT had recorded .29” of rain.

Mt. Joy recorded 10.57”.

THE STATIONS ARE 13 MILES APART 

Im telling ya, it was like a literal wall of rain in such a short distance.

Good Lord this is nuts. 8.88” just north of me and hearing unofficial report of 12.84” near me in Manheim/My joy area. I was driving in Sheafferstown and got turned around when 897 had a tractor trailer stranded near Kleinfeltersville. 

NEVER saw flooding in the areas I did. It is surreal. 

17 hours ago, Superstorm said:

Not into “yellow” beers, but if it means snow, I’ll have a case on ready.


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the sh!t we do for a little snow.....

@canderson it looks like some showers and to me the Landover area may get a little more in the sustained category, but I wouldnt worry too much about it.

btw, that pic was shared w/ sauss last winter prior to us getting reved up for a snowstorm.

I hope to use it often this year :).

Nut