pasnownut

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Huh...so we need to root against the EPO, then?...

No.  Just not too much.  You've seen this long enough to know that there are no absolutes in weather. 

To give you an analogy that might help, it's like making soup and ingredients used. 

Somethings missing....no good. 

Too much of something.....no good. 

Wrong blend.....

capiche?

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GFS doesn’t like the euros Thursday or Sunday snow showers, but gives us an awesome rain clipper/Miller B next Monday. lol 

watch the L between 120-136 if ya wanna chuckle.  Sheesh.

FWIW Fv3 Post Xmas spoiler alert. No worries. I don’t believe it. Santa’s gonna deliver. 

41 minutes ago, Ji said:

45 minutes ago, BTRWx said:

No change from fv3 from NCEP.  Not looking good.

Wont be till 0z till big changes

Boy i hope you know something we don't, but i have to say that while i have been an advocate for the northern trend, just not seeing enough wobble to see that happening.  That NS energy has been far too consistent to see enough notable changes happen.  If you have a voodo doll...i'll send you more pins.

28 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Well, I wouldn't say I doubt the chaos element...I just don't like it, lol Like...I wanna be able to see something 5-7 days and know for a fact either it will work or not. 

But really...it's the close misses that outright depress me the most. I hate seeing somewhere just above or below getting the snow we should've gotten...particularly when it happens multiple times a year! (Feels like someone intentionally robs us just because)  And the tracking leading up...I get nervous with model runs, and the bad trends are draining. (and then if it misses it takes me a day to recover...it's awful. And I get ticked when I hear about other people's snow)

And really...you mentioned having realistic expectations...well, I think, prior to 2013/14, I knew it wouldn't snow every year, but I had no clue as to how close it can come (because I wasn't following weather models until that winter).

then you picked a bad sport to play in pal.....

close misses are tough on the mind/heart, but that's sorta the fun of it if you think about it.  If you dont enjoy that, then I'd suggest to stop looking at weather maps.  Not being mean, but being honest.  Its just how it is sometimes.

1 hour ago, MillvilleWx said:

As a meteorologist, I can say, the times you are wrong certainly weigh on you. Mother Nature is humbling. Just have to learn and take a loss. I still love it and that's why I love this forum and the ability to talk weather and be a weenie without someone telling me I have a problem lol

I get ya and agree. While no met, I, like many are here for similar reasons and sharing our love/fascination of winter storms. Just feel it premature to be pissy and grading others forecasts and outlooks in week 1. If this doesn’t work out the next one may.  Step back....relax. 

16 minutes ago, frd said:

Your post is like therapy for some here, myself included, makes me feel great inside!  Thanks :-) 

Oh, I am also pumped for some biggies in the Jan to March time frame.  Bring it !!!!   

 

Yeah...he's a keeper....even if he's with us from Texas.

Its gonna be fine, and its just weather.  Keep it in perspective and we'll all be fine.

12 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

It's pretty sad to know we are on the 11th page of the Panic thread in early December when the area has already had a snowstorm reach Advisory and Winter Storm Warning status for a majority of the sub-forum. Long range looks great, and I for one am LOVING the look in mid-late January when I'm in town 

Yep, at this pace....it gonna be a long year.    

Glad some of us just like to chat about weather....right or wrong. 

Totally agree.  Its week 1 of met winter, and weather isnt instant gratification like a "smart" phone.

Looking forward to the next one....whenever that is (which looks to be not too far away.  

6 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

I think it’s reasonable to stay tuned.  We’ve seen the models jump at this range before. Probably going to slide south but we could still still get an advisory level event if things fall our way

IMO we still have time for the northerly adjustments, as we have basically been watching this like a hawk from almost a week ago, so I think we all got a little invested really early on this threat.  I'm likley out, but could see somewhere between DC and Balt, still getting in on some fun.  Hoping it happens for you guys.

54 minutes ago, Round Hill WX said:

It’s not the high pressure that is our problem. It is the 2 features circled. The energy diving into Quebec is pushing our storm eastward. The other circle over ~60W is a wave breaking tropospheric piece of energy which is creating the confluence over the northeast, also shunting the southern stream LP eastward without latitude gain. 

That's a great snapshot of what is and has been one of the problems.  Even though they have shown up at slightly varied degrees, they've always been showing up to spoil the party.  Nice Round Hill.  

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Just keep it close baby. I don't want to be in the bullseye until the final 72 hours.  Just keep it right on our doorstep for now and I'm happy. 

Absolutely.  i know I'm likely fringed, but as we live so close, i root for the same evolution as you guys and what happens, happens.  Congrats to your backyard.  Mine may still get white.  All good and a win nontheless.

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Still squashed. But a stronger vort this time and a much better precip field as well. It is a miss. But just barely.

And SW VA gets blasted on this run as well. 

yeah, i like this run.  Reasonable improvement so far.  Little better ridging out in front before it hits "the wall"

21 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

You'll have to forgive me if I'm having a hard time buying a storm missing us low and inside in early December. That just seems opposite of anything that has ever happened here. 

I feel like when we get weekend storms, the model tide turns on Wednesday. Let's see what happens.

Seeing that we are still at 4+ days out, this is correct and why we shouldn't invest every minute parsing through op runs at this juncture.  Look for overall trends and subtle shifts on pattern, trough axis, jet structure etc, and weigh on Ens guidance until tomorrow, then you can start nitpicking the ops apart and seeing how it can go right...or wrong.  This is far from over.  

23 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

How is this barely precip into bwi?? Farthest N of every op and by a fair amount.

 

This suite was full of corrections.  Better data sampling likely the cause.  Fully expect more improvements on Wednesday maybe not in succession, but I've seen these corrections enough in the past to get a sense where we are headed. Fasten your seatbelts guys and gals fun times ahead.

Yeah, I too was pleased w/ the shifts noted on the 0z's and think that BWI and N still get in the game.  

2 hours ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Actually, this run compared to previous runs are significantly further north.  As you said, measurable precip now reaches the M/D line.  That's improvement.  Way too early to give up on this one.

looking over 0Z's, I'm liking where we sit right now.  Nice trend N on precip maps on old GFS, Fv3 was about the same and CMC ticked S.  Euro came north as well.  You can also see the confluence looking better in the NE, and should lead to less suppressed solutions if that continues.  L structure is rather unique as it leaves behind a piece and the ULL closes off briefly.  I have a feeling this may turn into something as Showme suggested the other day.  Not sure it does anything for us, but its not something I've seen very often, so fun to watch.  

7 minutes ago, canderson said:

Fv3 is the updated GFS correct, and they'll retire the "old" GFS after a few months? Or am I incorrect? 

correct.  Just had this discussion over in the MA forum.

Op run goes operational in 2019, but the Ens will be in Q2 of 2020.  

17 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Maybe in caps like the original

there has got to be a dozen or so of us that have been regulars since early 2000’s

ahh....the good ol days.  Welcome back

Fv3 has been rather unwaivering in its presentation, so it should gain alot of traction.....or go down w/ the ship.  Grades out in next 96-144 hours.  

1 hour ago, paweather said:

The OP GFS was still pretty darn suppressed. DT is going nuts out on FB My goodness still so much time.

And its replacement still gives alot of hope.  That is right where we want it, if past tendencies show up with this model.

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Was just about to post something to this effect. I don’t think the 12z made things any clearer. Every thing basically held, which still leaves us in limbo where climo, history, and analogs suggest we should get into the northern piece of this at least, but no NWP consensus on that. Certainly western NC and VA look golden. Models today are just more scattershot where small differences in shortwave placement and strength are the difference between us smoking citrus and shoveling. Still think we have at least 24 more hours of this too. 

IMO holding the line/minor vacillation is a good thing.  If we would be seeing notable shifts this early, it could end up with Albany in the jackpot (if the NS vort gives way too soon).  We've done this enough to know that tomorrow and Thursday is when notable shifts show up (if they are going to).  Big unknown is that the Fv3 is showing good continuity between runs, so that might throw a wrench into things, but no reason to jump...yet.

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

The 240 Euro will come out before the 102 panel of the FV3

I think it senses the interest from this board, and the wizard is just f'in w/ us.

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Dunno...yea that slp is south of where we want but look at the GFS as the same time...the GFS kind of has a secondary development as the upper energy catches up too but its way too suppressive for anything to come of it.  But look at the UKMET at the same time...there is an opening there.  This turn probably isnt good as is, but like I said I wonder if things arent still more in flux with how this evolves then thought.  There are some attempts to key on a secondary development behind the initial stj wave and phase the NS in.  That would open a whole other can of worms...and maybe introduce temperature issues if the cold has vacated the area by then...but its an interesting twist.  Just thinking out loud.  

this was showing up a couple days ago and showme though it had a chance.  Wonky @ss evolution verbatim, as i'm not sure what the mechanism is to leave behind a piece, but hey, stranger things have happened.  Just dont see how it could come up unless the NS energy in NE is lifting out.

is it me or did someone break the new toy?

I'm stuck at 36

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There were enough good things in that run to keep me entertained a while longer.  

Agreed.  Consolidate the LP and it should be able to push further NE.

1 minute ago, Ji said:

the STJ Sw was not as robust....was the biggest issue

and a strung out mess.  hence the loss of vertical push.