mahk_webstah

If that’s mostly front end I approve. Could be 8 in 8 hours

You are still in the game for a quick thump man!

It is pretty juicy so could be a nice thump where a band sets up for a few hours. Really could be awesome up here by end of day Thursday with cold coming.

Seems the front end is where to invest even up here, as if it runs inside the coast like WPC has it, we can dry slot to drizzle.

And they hint at this possibly slipping a bit s and e, and their discussion implies a zone of heavier wolf. I bet we see more orange in the next map.

Nice overnight trends for CNE and far western SNE: WPC Recent 00Z guidance has shown a little stronger confluence over Quebec than previous runs that is limiting the northerly extent of the precipitation field. Guidance does maintain a potent upper trough over the Mid-South on approach, but the aforementioned confluent flow is forcing the trough to remain more positively-tilted in the 500mb layers by 06-12Z Monday. This is leading to the best frontogenetical forcing and strongest vertical ascent beneath the right-entrance region of the 250mb jet streak to become positioned more offshore rather than over central New England, rather than a more robust, intense FGEN setup over northern New England. Think the latest PWSSI is showing a reasonable swath of >40% probabilities of Moderate impacts from the Catskills and southern Adirondacks to the Green and White Mountains of VT and NH respectively, and across central ME. These areas can still witness some banding on the northern flank of the 850mb low as it tracks south of Long Island and off the Massachusetts Capes by early Monday morning. GYX The keys to this forecast, especially the rain/snow line, will be pinning down the track of the low- and mid-level circulations amid only a marginally-supportive air mass for snow. Ensemble consensus brings the surface low SW to NE across Cape Cod or just beyond it before deepening over the Gulf of Maine; tracks closer to the coast introduce warmer air through the low levels... although it would be an outlier solution to come close enough to the coast to jeopardize snow accumulation over the interior, especially when considering the 21.00Z solutions flowing in this morning trending southward. Thus fairly strong confidence exists for interior zones to remain all-snow, except in the warm Merrimack Valley and toward the Mass border as a whole. Even slightly more southern tracks bring snow to the Maine coast with more favorable northerly drainage flow reinforcing sub-freezing conditions in the low-levels. Latest ensemble solutions also favor a near- or just-south-of- the coast track for the mid-level circulation... leaving the coast-ward half of the forecast area in a favorable region for classic deformation/FGEN forcing... most pronounced over central/southern Maine, where the amplifying low over the Gulf of Maine will increase forcing overhead. Regardless of the circulation`s track... UVVs are likely to be concentrated in the mid-levels with a fair amount of DGZ overlap before snow falls through a deep isothermal layer...likely to be right around freezing closer to the parent circulation. Latest ENS/GEFS solutions show about a 50-70% chance of keeping this layer below freezing at the coast; while I don`t think this is enough to include the Midcoast in the watch just yet, this would be the area to look at for trends favoring a more southern low track, which may allow strongest forcing to tap into cooler air and produce strong snowfall rates on Monday.

we sliver.

not as much as you'd think.

The thing is, with these kind of systems it sucks when SNE isn't in the game because many of you lose your enthusiasm. But when SNE is in the game, then we often get fringed up here!

I've put 25K on the table but reserving 50 for Wednesday

dilf storm?

good for CNE, and maybe western SNE? From WPC snow discussion just out an hour ago: ..Northeast... Day 3... The previously noted upper low moving east of the central Rockies tonight is forecast to lift northeast and phase with a northern stream trough digging across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Saturday. This will result in a highly-amplified trough moving east of the Mississippi Valley Sunday evening. Surface low pressure is forecast to develop along the right-entrance region of a strong upper jet and track north and strengthen along the Mid Atlantic to Northeast coast Sunday night. Additional strengthening is expected as the low moves along the New England coast into Atlantic Canada on Monday. The potential for heavy snow with this system remains high, however confidence in its placement is still limited by model spread and run-to-run discontinuities. The general trend of the 12Z guidance was toward a more a more easterly track -- supporting lighter QPF and a lesser threat for heavy snow from western to far northern New York and far northern New England. At this point, even with the more easterly track this still appears to a mostly to all rain event for the I-95 corridor up through Boston. Probabilities for snow accumulations of 8 inches or more are currently highest from the Adirondacks through interior northern New England, however with the shifting track, anticipate some changes of this axis of higher probabilities as well

at 625 nnw of CON I am dangerously emotionally in.

Its fine in my opinion if we bag 6 and then finish with a glaze for Wed-Thurs snow to lay on top of. But I am really hoping for at least a good thump Sunday night.

Regeneration up here to steady light snow. We’ll see if it can maintain

Great for some;disappointing for others. Unsure which group I’ll fall into. NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 200 PM EST Fri Jan 20 2023 Valid 12Z Mon Jan 23 2023 - 12Z Fri Jan 27 2023 ...Heavy snow threat for the interior Northeast with an exiting storm Monday... ...Second storm to spread a heavy rain/severe weather threat to the South early next week, working up the Eastern Seaboard midweek along with a heavy snow threat from the central Rockies/Plains through the interior Northeast... ...Synoptic Overview... The weather pattern will remain stormy but progressive across much of the nation going into next week with two well defined low pressure systems of interest. The first will be affecting the Northeast U.S. going through Monday and then exiting into southeast Canada by Tuesday, with coastal rain and interior snow. Meanwhile, the next closed/deep system will dig robustly over the Southwest into Monday then eject across the south-central U.S. early in next week, with a subsequent track in a general northeasterly direction across the Ohio Valley and then the Great Lakes by Wednesday and into Thursday. A building West Coast/western Canada upper ridge as a +PNA pattern will then herald a return to colder conditions from the West to across much of the central and eastern U.S. as amplified upper troughing works develops downstream.

Hopefully some of us will be going into that cold, active run with the foot and a half on the ground already

Latest WPC has the low at about the canal. Still plenty of qpf.

That same stripe keeps showing up

You should've done this in Gaelic.

very light though. I have no expectation that we get much more in terms of accumulation.

no change

I am just several miles south south west of Brian. I’m not sure what the differences between the IVT and upper level low snows. But it looks like some of the returns seem to be best south so we need to get that west south west to east north east band set up from our area to your area.

On radar can see the stuff backfilling around Winnepesaukee and Gene, and then the stuff rapidly filling in crossing the Vermont, New Hampshire border and heading east. Looks like there should be a pretty good wide band setting up across central and southern New Hampshire and down into southern New England. Fingers crossed that all of us, or most of us, but into smashing today.