mahk_webstah

I was fooled by how robust that earlier band looked. I see now how it is coming together.

Snowing nicely now but back edge is near. I see the EPA stuff firing though.

Vape? Oy….

But will the mid levels have warmed…

GYX discussion appears that everything is on track as forecast. They must assume that the precipitation is going to fill in as the coastal continues to develop. At this point I’m just counting on the heavy burst of snow that’s about to come in last for an hour or two. they are the meteorologists, so I trust their judgment, certainly more than mine.

I think the primary is deeper and holding on longer. That means a bigger slot and less qpf I think

Is it eggplant Wednesday?

now that would be a capper

although I'm noticing a tendency to fill in the empty gaps up this way, and noticing the stuff building in Jersey and SEPA that is on a trajectory to be up here. Personally I'm happy we are getting some during the day. steady light snow here and 30, with a coating so far.

Yup

Light flakes starting to drift down

I used to be Mark_in_Philly. When we moved from Webster to Boscawen, I didn't want to give up the sound of "Mahk" and "Webstah"

Looking at the radar this morning compared to Monday, we can really see the difference, and why this storm is for farther into NNE than Monday. The primary is further west and well developed. Detroit is getting a pretty big storm. The coastal isn't really popping yet and the moisture is more inland from the coast; on Monday there was blob of moisture way down south along and off the coast, and you could see how that was going to develop soon enough to slow down warm air intrusion One thing that does give me optimism for a thump is the radar, which looks juicy with snow pretty far south. The first band looks strong and ahead of schedule. 6-8" for here this evening, some freezing rain and then a slot is the best outcome, and a possibility. We don't warm a lot at the surface and the pack is hardened. Incidentally very little compaction this morning. ON my morning walk across the field and into the woods, the depth felt the same as yesterday morning. Looking at the long range, we might approach a really deep snowpack by Feb 10.

I feel pretty optimistic about getting winter weather in New England the next 2-3 weeks. No big warm-up seems to be in sight, the pattern looks active, even in these coming few days after 3 straight storms in 6 days. We might get a little bit of snow Sunday and/or Tuesday, and I think a Feb 1 storm has been on the models for a few days now. Also, CPC says BN temps and AN precip next 14 days. Maybe I look at the window and that makes me optimistic, but for those of you suffering, I think good stuff is coming. Like Will and Scott said yesterday, the start of any significant warmup keeps getting pushed back. No Change? No. Change.

Expecting the lower end of forecast range; good stuff farther north. Hoping for 5 and the slot. Maybe we trend better overnight but I doubt it.

What is your pack these days?

Change!

Seem to be very little compaction this morning. Lots of attention from the last storm so I was walking across the field and 18 to 20 inches of snow and there might’ve been 22 and some parts of the woods. Should’ve put on my snow shoes. I’ll send a pic later of the dog hopping through. It was funny.

Deformation ratios probably helped

He's going to be driving through a heavy 1-2" hour band at some point I'd think. That's not fun.

wow and inch of rain! Was looking at WPC qpf and seems like about 1.2 here, and about the same for you. That would seem to translate to more like .25 rain for me and perhaps .3-.5 for you?

Seems like the main issue with this storm, at least up here, is logistical. There was a lot of blowing snow last night so the driveway needs to be snowblown again. That is a long process because it is a long open driveway. Then we get the dump from probably 5p-midnight? 6-10 inches fast? Then on top of that, in the middle of the night, sleet and then rain. Then everything freezes hard Thursday late afternoon evening. Seems we have to hope most of the snow is done early enough to snowblow it away before the rain comes and then it freezes into chunks. It is hard to remove slush with a snow blower. Any sense of how much rain we are getting in different parts of the region? Maybe we drizzle and slot at least in some places? In the end we should have a bullet proof pack compressed to 15-20 inches, fields to forest.

I think some are tired but I bet some posts will start showing up with 0z runs.

I think GYX wants to get people's attention after today. Unusual to have an aggressive numbers before a watch or warning. I am less optimistic after all of our recent luck. So I say 6-8 for me and then dry slot or drizzle. Wednesday A 30 percent chance of snow after 1pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 31. Light and variable wind becoming southeast 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Wednesday Night Snow before 4am, then rain and snow, possibly mixed with freezing rain. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 26. Breezy, with an east wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible. Thursday Rain and snow, possibly mixed with freezing rain before 7am, then rain likely, possibly mixed with freezing rain between 7am and 1pm, then a chance of rain after 1pm. High near 38. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

1) several models at various times kept showing strips of high qpf across the area from me-Brian-Jeff. 2) And WPC qpf numbers were solid for several days. 3) for me the clincher was the radar presentation yesterday. classic coastal redeveloper look loaded with moisture.