mahk_webstah

New from CPC and not encouraging, although the 8-14 day sounds more encouraging with systems moving into some troughing over the central and eastt: US Hazards Outlook NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM EST December 23 2020 Synopsis: The forecast circulation during Week-2 continues to feature mid-level high pressure near the West Coast that extends northward through mainland Alaska, with mid-level low pressure over the Great Lakes and Bering Sea. Another area of mid-level high pressure is forecast south of Greenland. Surface low pressure is forecast to be intensifying near the Great Lakes at the start of the period, before shifting east of North America. During the middle to late portion of the forecast enhanced moisture from the Pacific may take aim at parts of the West Coast. Hazards Slight risk of heavy precipitation for much of the eastern U.S., Thu, Dec 31. Slight risk of high winds shifting eastward with time from the Northern and Central Plains through the Northeast, Thu-Fri, Dec 31-Jan 1. Slight risk of heavy precipitation (mostly rain, with high-elevation snow) for portions of the Pacific Northwest, Northern California, and the Sierra-Nevadas, Sat-Wed, Jan 2-6. Slight risk of high winds for portions of the Pacific Northwest and Northern California, Sat-Wed, Jan 2-6. Detailed Summary For Saturday December 26 - Wednesday December 30: WPC Days 3-7 U.S. Hazards For Thursday December 31 - Wednesday January 06: Both the tropics and extratropics are likely to have a role in shaping precipitation over North America during Week-2. La Nina continues to dominate the observed circulation and conditions over the Pacific, with the Week-2 mean 500-hPa height anomalies showing a robust positive Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern among the various ensemble suites. This supports extension of the jet across the Pacific, bringing heavy precipitation and high wind concerns to parts of the West. Over the Atlantic, the 500-hPa height anomalies project strongly onto the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. A blocking ridge is forecast in the full-field 500-hPa heights south of Greenland, which would historically help lock in colder air upstream over eastern Canada and the Northeast. Despite this favorable pattern, limited cold air appears built up over the higher latitudes of North America, much to the dismay of snow-lovers along the East Coast. At the beginning of Week-2 model guidance shows a deepening surface cyclone likely to be lifting northeastward from the Middle Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes downstream of a mid-level trough. Earlier in the week there were some indications this system could redevelop off the Carolinas as a "Miller-B" nor'easter, although models have backed off this solution and are instead keeping the disturbance away from the coastal baroclinic zone. Despite the lessened concern from a system remaining over land while impacting the U.S., the origins of the disturbance fairly far south should help the feature tap into moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. This yields a slight risk for heavy precipitation (generally rain, outside of the highest elevations and portions of the Northeast) for much of the Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast on New Year's Eve. With a tightening pressure gradient forecast on the back side of the surface low, an eastward shifting slight risk for high winds is posted on New Year's Eve and New Year's Day from the Northern and Central Plains eastward through the Northeast. Sustained winds could exceed 30 mph, while also triggering reduced visibility due to blowing snow for areas that saw frozen precipitation from the system. The positive PNA projection is likely to help advect Pacific moisture into the Pacific Northwest during the middle to end of Week-2. This results in a slight risk of heavy precipitation (generally rain, with snow for higher elevations of the Cascades and Sierra-Nevadas) during January 2-6. This is supported by calibrated reforecast guidance from both the GEFS and ECMWF ensembles showing a better than 20% of the 85th climatological percentile of precipitation being exceeded. Similar probabilities exist for at least 2 inches of liquid equivalent precipitation along the immediate coast and windward facing slopes of the higher terrain during this period. The GEFS is the more bullish of the two models in terms of atmospheric river potential and coverage, with highest chances on the 3rd through 5th (generally poleward of the Oregon/California border). The ECMWF has a firmer boundary for atmospheric river chances south of this region, with its overall probabilities more muted. Since atmospheric river events historically are tied to much of the high wind hazards across the west, and additional support from reforecast guidance, an accompanying slight risk for high winds is posted on January 2-6 for coastal portions of Northern California, Oregon, and Washington state. Southerly flow is forecast across Alaska, resulting in above-normal temperatures favored for the state during Week-2. Reforecast tools show mixed wet and dry signals over southern portions of the state, although the probabilities for enhanced precipitation are fairly muted when present. Models show periodic disturbances over the Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska during the forecast period, although these features are often displaced in time and space from run-to-run and model-to model. Given the poor predictability, no associated precipitation or wind hazards are noted at this time. Forecaster: Daniel Harnos 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 31, 2020 - JAN 06, 2021 The week-2 500-hPa geopotential height pattern looks to feature eastward propagation, with weak troughing across the central and eastern CONUS. Near to below normal heights are forecast across much of the central and eastern CONUS, with the exception of Northern New England. Troughing is forecast to persist across the Bering Sea and western Mainland Alaska, favoring negative height anomalies for Alaska. Weak ridging favors near to slightly above normal heights over the western CONUS. With the troughing in place over much of the CONUS, the week-2 temperature forecast favors near to below normal probabilities across the southern tier of the U.S. However, there is some uncertainty over the Southwest, where the reforecast guidance is warmer than the uncalibrated guidance. Probabilities of above normal temperatures are favored across the northern tier of the CONUS, consistent with the above normal 500-hPa heights. Ridging along the West favors increased probabilities of above normal temperatures for coastal areas of the Pacific. Persistent troughing over the Bering Sea favors a continuation of southerly flow and increased above normal temperature probabilities over much of Alaska. Mean troughing over the central and eastern CONUS favors periodic shortwave disturbances propagating through the mean flow, bringing increased precipitation chances over the eastern CONUS. Below normal precipitation probabilities are increased for the Southwest, Rockies, Great Plains and western Great Lakes, behind the mean trough axis and underneath anomalous northwesterly mid-level flow. Precipitation chances are forecast to increase across the Pacific Northwest, as depicted in the GEFS reforecast tool. Troughing across the western Gulf of Alaska favors increased near to above normal precipitation probabilities across southeastern Mainland Alaska and the Panhandle, with ridging favoring increased odds of below normal precipitation across central and western parts of the Mainland. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 20% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 20% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 20% of Yesterday's 12z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 10 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Below average, 2 out of 5, due to increasing uncertainty in the mid-level height pattern in the week-2 period, combined with weak and conflicting temperature and precipitation signals in the guidance. FORECASTER: Qin Z

Was walking all over the fields and into the woods today. Basically open exposed-to-sun fields have 8-12, less sunny fields 10-14, woods probably 12-16. It isn't the fluff it once was, very compressed and dense now. I expect the sunny parts of the fields to be green/brown by Friday afternoon but to retain snow elsewhere. Will be happy to see our 1500' driveway which goes up a hill, be clear. I was feelling very envious reading the zones from MSP Erie and Western NY. but of course I have nothing to complain about...

should we maybe wait and see how this plays out over the next couple weeks?

When it all goes to shite, there's a point at which I let go of expectations and just focus on other things. Fortunately, it is the holiday season so it is much easier to focus on other things. I think there is a good chance we get back on track soon. For the sledders sake, lets hope the base on the trails in the woods stays and solidifies, and then they'll have a fun winter and I'll get some good walks.

lol just saw this after I commented same.

Tip are you this week's Pope? At least you'll stay in the thread...

An artistic, comedic, and rhetorical masterpiece

30 is the new foot

This is what happened before I moved up her in 07-08 yes? You cadded and kept pack while others torched

Well we had a base of more than 2 feet from which to groom. I imagine that’s a nice firmly packed base trail that is not going to be affected by the torch too badly. Then some powder should come to freshen it up

I’m excited about what’s coming over the next two weeks. As far as I can tell it doesn’t look like an overwhelming suppression kind of blocking that is setting up, it looks more like something that will just slow things down and allow things to amplify near us. I hope that’s right because that can lead to really cool things like February 69 or February 78. I hope we don’t see a replay of that kind of blocking they gave us rain while DC in Philly blizzarded in 2010, but I’m not getting that vibe

We can’t avoid it. Some places will achieve at least a hard frozen snowpack that will be difficult to melt away in subsequent thaws. By Jan 5 or so there may be very happy snowmobilers and pack queens

you can imagine that you are at the end of a huge event. they are my favorite types of storms...6" on top of a 20" pack

I like Nashua's downtown.

I’ve accepted I’ll lose a lot of my pack, but it is Sunday morning so there is still the possibility of changes that could make it less extreme. Then it gets cold and we’ll see what pops. Fantastic winter conditions up here, and I’m enjoying it. The pup just hops right into it. I’m getting amazing glute and cardio workouts walking across fields and up hills. Pretty awesome week really.

Post frontal Fraude!!!

Interesting reading overnight WPC. They are onboard for big rain and warmup but also meaningful snow behind front. There frozen probs are higher for New England on 25th. Surprise to see that

When you said that I was hoping it was going to join the Ukie

-5 with about 16-17”in the open fields. Went to downtown CON this morning. Lots of snow there!

All hope isn’t lost. They also have some low probs for frozen on 24-25th https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=med

the next 2 weeks includes the new year....just sayin. Looks shaky for the next week basically.

I agree with that 100%. I think the whole white Christmas thing is overblown. But on the other hand could that be because I just had a white Hanukkah?

Those totals from andover, franklin, danbury, newport, springfiels, claremont, even new london, were impressive. They and you maxed that band. 4 miles see if Boscawe n reported 24. I'm on a hill North side of boscawen, closer to that band. My max was 24 depth and yours was 30. Way too exposed and windy up here. I'll go 6" below you. What was your final? 32.8?

Neither GYX nor WPC seem that they are leaning snowy for Monday Tuesday

Same here. Shower and then cocktail. And then Chanukkah.