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mahk_webstah

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Everything posted by mahk_webstah

  1. mahk_webstah
    Wow, that seems to have gotten dramatically better for Maine.
  2. mahk_webstah
    Seems like five straight days or something where the GFS has had a big storm. I think the euro has had a signal, right? No one is really talked about the other model suites during this timeframe.
  3. mahk_webstah
    Why is it increasing?
  4. mahk_webstah
    That’s not a good sign
  5. mahk_webstah
    I sacrifice $5000 of work in 1996 for that blizzard in Philly was probably 15,000 inflation right now. You can’t spend $2000 on the flight ticket get home to a big storm?
  6. mahk_webstah
    Up here GYX is saying we don’t start until after 5 PM on Sunday. That seems late based on what I’ve been seeing and reading. And I don’t think it would be more than maybe three or four hours after you start.
  7. mahk_webstah
    If it makes it across
  8. mahk_webstah
    I haven’t told anyone yet, but Taunton is my life coach
  9. mahk_webstah
    Maybe the thread title, if this continues, could be “I wanna have HECS with you”
  10. mahk_webstah
    I don’t remember the exact set up, but I do remember several days of signals from multiple model suites that there would be a band up here in Dendriteland.
  11. mahk_webstah
    I wish the bulk of this wasn’t falling overnight
  12. mahk_webstah
    I think my forecast has it around four or 5° on Sunday night during the heaviest snow. Don’t think I’ve seen that since maybe 2013 or 14.
  13. mahk_webstah
    The worst punishment for a snow weenie would be no phone or computer and no looking out the window
  14. mahk_webstah
    Seems the GFSAI has a deeper and closer coastal low than the euro AI
  15. mahk_webstah
    And you might be able to say that is quite possible
  16. mahk_webstah
    991 at the Cape? That seems pretty significant.
  17. mahk_webstah
    Unfortunately, there’s still plenty of time for things to go wrong
  18. mahk_webstah
    Oh, I think you’re right. But I think it’s not just weenies who assume that the top range of a forecast is what will verify. The general public I think falls into that trap.
  19. mahk_webstah
    Well, you know a lot more than I do lol. Maybe 10 to 20 would’ve been better.
  20. mahk_webstah
    You are reflecting the trap in snowfall forecasting. if a meteorologist forecasts 6 to 12 inches people immediately say there’s gonna be a foot of snow. One to 2 feet reflects the reality of the models as Jeff said earlier, which is regionwide 12+. It would not be surprising that there would be lollies 2 feet. Yes it’s aggressive three days out, but it lets people know this is gonna be an exceptional storm. Just the cold itself is gonna make it exceptional beyond heavy snow.
  21. mahk_webstah
    With consistent QPF over 1 inch and some case? And ratio is projected to be quite high due to a frigid air mass and very deep DGZ. Most models have had this for Southern New England at least for two days now, right?
  22. mahk_webstah
    Yes, it does. It’s kind of hard to believe given where this was three days ago. Now we see if we can trend to a stronger coastal that might put a heavy band somewhere up around you or me. But even if that doesn’t happen, if we get those projected ratios and the snow is falling in the low single digits temperatures that’s really gonna be something
  23. mahk_webstah
    The ones that just slowly get better and better as we get to start time are the best. But on the other hand, this thing is still three days away, which seems like forever.
  24. mahk_webstah
    You’re gonna have helluva pack
  25. mahk_webstah
    And that’s 10:1 so add at least 20% and maybe up to 50%
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