NavarreDon

Congrats!!! .

I’ve never seen them pull the trigger 5 shifts away from an event!!! The wording in the disco suggests at this point it’s not a question of if but how much. They also usually start conservative with totals but not this time! Curious to see what Jason Boyer’s tune is after this? .

This was the biggest one for me while I lived up there 18” at my place off of New Stock Rd including flow snow. We were lucky to lose power for only 54 hours. It looked like a war zone with abandoned vehicles & trees down everywhere! https://www.weather.gov/gsp/18-20DecemberWinterStorm .

The only area in the Mnts where their might be any issues would be the extreme SW Mnts. Hayesville, Murphy, Andrews corridor at lower elevations. This area can be susceptible to missing the CAD. Possibly some mixing issues in this locale depending on micro climate, low track, ect. Obviously with varying amounts, the rest of the Mnts show a real possibility of getting clobbered! .

Man, that’s a tough one! You could get a great dump at home. The in laws spot is not that prone to dry slotting plus it’s a good spot for some flow snow. I think they will get a big one. As I said either will be a win for you with this system. I’d definitely be gathering info (models, afd’s from all the Offices around you GSP, Blacksburg, Raleigh) and make that final decision as late as possible. Sage advice from Octopus, & go with your gut. .

What’s the timeline, when does a decision have to be finalized? If you have time follow the model trends. Depends on what part of Hickory & what part of Black Mountain. I’d wait as long as possible to gather the most info then make the call. The great thing is either way will be a win! .

Good morning folks!, this is shaping up to be a nice thump for most of you. Still a ways out but I’m loving the trends for heavy snow even in the foothills. Of course it’s all up in the air because it’s the south. I love living at the beach but not gonna lie, this is one of those times I wish I was in the mix with you all. Just gonna have to settle for the vicariously route with you! .

I really like this setup for you Mnt peeps! Close call either way for areas surrounding the Mnts. Still time for changes to occur but this is shaping up as a pounder. .

Morning folks!, I’m checking in with my eyes on the system. I think the 6Z is over doing the ice for most of the mountains . Obviously the escarpment and foothills are susceptible. Lots of time for adjustments to come. Remember not to get to caught up on one model or run. Don’t forget about synoptics when you look at the big picture. Buckle up for a wild couple days…..my favorite part of winter storms!!! .

Congrats to all that cashed. My previous next door neighbor posted pics & it looked like 2” off of New Stock Rd. Any of you seeing flow snow? BTW it’s 44 & windy at the beach currently!

https://www.facebook.com/OkaloosaSheriff/videos/668211411008527/ .

Agreed & whoever gets lucky enough to be popped by the deform band is gonna be in for a treat. I still say don’t sleep on areas in the foothills. If things break right with the low track and strength…..surprise, surprise, surprise!!! .

From a purely weather vs snow perspective. I find the verbiage in this portion of the GSP disco so cool! Tons going on in the atmosphere in the next 18 hours. Minor adjustments will be made to the Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories with the high elevation warning expanded down into Macon and the Advisories expanded across the northern NC foothills. Uncertainty over accumulations remains very high given the present very warm profiles, the warm ground, and the speed of the system overnight through Monday morning. However, the forcing is tremendous tonight as upper jetlet divergence ahead of the approaching wave sharpens up quickly this evening. A mid-level deformation zone will cross the region mainly from 08Z to 12Z and bring locally very heavy snow rates, at least in the places cold enough for snow. Saturated geopotential vorticity fields also indicate some thundersnow could be possible in the heaviest rates late tonight. Amounts have been boosted to 10 to 12 inches in the highest peaks of the Smokies. The snow will end as NW upslope snowfall in the TN border counties Monday, tapering off in the afternoon. Black ice will be a concern beyond the Warning/Advisory period. .

A very veteran group in here but we all get excited and tend to fall all over every model run (I know I was guilty of it when I lived in Weaverville!). 85’s post is spot on & very realistic. Temper your expectations to avoid disappointment. .

I’m at work And can’t look, is that for the airport or proper? What does your pinpoint forecast call for Jason? Earlier today my old one for Newstock Rd area was saying 3-5”. I think this at a minimum will hold true for north of proper. .

Sorry for the double post, please delete.

Good morning & HNY folks, this system has some potential for sure! Lots of variables in play here. Low placement & path, amount of tilt, how quickly temps crash, & dynamics. Things are looking good for a lot of you. I certainly wouldn’t be shocked to see someone report thunder snow. I liked the fact that the models aren’t showing the infamous FBV dry slot. Elevational areas look golden. N Buncombe up through Burnsville, Boone, W Jefferson look prime to me. Depending on low track portions of the Foothills might surprise. I expect someone will report 10” if this maintains. Remember it’s weather and models can only do so much. Be ready for shifts both good & bad. Good luck to all of you and I’ll be living vicariously thru OBS, pics, & vids! .

Just wanted to pop in and wish you all a very Merry Christmas! Hope you guys get a present of a pattern shift & then plenty of white stuff. .

Currently cloudy & 47 in the W FL Panhandle. Rain is on the way, really cold & raw day up here! .

Yikes!!! .

Don’t normally post in the SE, but when you have a 6hr rain event like this…..! .

Sorry to bug you but it’s 45mph & 1004 pressure with a special update at 5pm edt. .

https://www.fox10tv.com/news/2-dead-after-road-collapse-in-george-county-miss/article_4ea38026-0a42-11ec-8928-eb8dfc3a59f5.html Hearing this was caused by excessive rainfall from Ida. .

We’re getting raked by a band right now. Extreme rain and 35mph wind mixing down. .

This is correct!!! .