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NavarreDon

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Posts posted by NavarreDon

  1. I’ve got friends  in Grayton  Beach and in laws at  Seagrove  and Grayton had dramatic picture of leading edge.
    Where are those two spots in relation to you and projected landfall?
    Thanks 

    I’m in between Pensacola & Fort Walton Beach. Grayton & Seagrove are on 30A in Walton county. They are about halfway between me and the projected landfall area.


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  2. Under a warning now.
    A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the coast of theFlorida Panhandle from Indian Pass to Steinhatchee River.A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the coast of theFlorida Panhandle from Navarre to the Wakulla/Jefferson County line.


    A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
    * Coast of the Florida Panhandle from Navarre to the Wakulla/
    Jefferson County line.

    A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
    * Coast of the Florida Panhandle from the Alabama/Florida border to
    Navarre


    The wording is confusing it should start with Mary Esther FL for the warning


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    • Confused 1
  3. Here we go…..

    A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the coast of the
    Florida Panhandle from Navarre to the Wakulla/Jefferson County line.


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    Just an update TS warnings start at the Santa Rosa/Okaloosa county line. Navarre is actually under a TS Watch.


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  4. Storm Banter threads are a good place for many of us who come here for entertainment, but from what I've seen they only come up when something gets serious.
    We all come for what the mets say, of course. With this site having almost 17,000 members, like it or not, these threads are fun for we who are weather nerds looking for a place to hang out. I know I post too much, but try to add graphics or occasional attempts at serious opinions, etc. But personally enjoy other people's thoughts who are on the same level as myself.
    Maybe Banter should come up before a storm is a dangerous threat so we who just have fun sharing "banter" are free to entertain ourselves. It is a balance hard for people like me who sometimes (always) get excited about any little weather thing.
    But then we must ask, what is "normal" anyway.
    I'm a web developer, wonder if the world needs a Weather Forum for non-mets...
     
     
     

    My post wasn’t directed at you, I enjoy your enthusiasm. Some of the tangents the that posts take the direction of the thread in, are a bit over the top.


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  5. This. It's obviously something to track but 1) there's nothing too exciting happening right now IMO and 2) there are a lot of tropical snobs on the board. Some only show up if there's a major (wind) event in the cards. 
    That said, let's talk tropical  
    I've been lukewarm on Fred's future, and it seems that the guidance has pulled back as well. Keep in mind that runs like the HWRF and that one GFS run were outliers, and even GEFS and EPS guidance were more bearish on the possibilities of a strong system coming into Florida. 
    83Xg0u3.png
    To be clear, Fred is not dead. It has developed a pretty impressive burst of convection. However, you can see clearly from the visible loop below that shear is present, as the cloud tops are being blown away from the center. 
    giphy.gif?cid=790b76116d4b988ea322b678dfaa498f6bda6ca65754d678&rid=giphy.gif&ct=g
    WU0nRZN.gif
    Despite the very warm SSTs and OHC, it's going to take time for a weakened Fred to be in a low enough shear environment to allow for any type of significant intensification. That's why the current NHC forecast doesn't get this to hurricane or even high end TS status. 
    One caveat could be if Fred is able to avoid land interaction (GFS and Euro take it into the FL Peninsula before getting to the Gulf) perhaps it can intensify a bit more because it'll have more time, but I think the ceiling is minimal hurricane if everything became aligned. 
    I think a mid-strength TS much like the NHC is forecasting is the eventual outcome, and it should be mentioned again that this looks to be a significant rainmaker for someone. 
    68uJs2k.png
    Huv4ZyL.png

    Great post! Some normalcy in the thread has returned!!!


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    • Thanks 1
  6. This is great news.  Where do you think the best place for me to set up to see guaranteed Tropical Storm force conditions with the possibility of Hurricane conditions?

    I would recommend the Panhandle. Base of Panama City Beach, this allows relocation both E & W in pretty quick order.


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  7. Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 PM EDT Wed Jun 30 2021

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad low pressure area
    and tropical wave located about 1300 miles east-southeast of the
    Windward Islands have become better organized since yesterday.
    However, recent satellite wind data indicates that the disturbance
    does not have a well-defined circulation. Environmental conditions
    appear generally favorable for continued development, and a tropical
    depression or storm is likely to form during the next day or two
    while the system moves west-northwestward at 20 to 25 mph.
    Interests in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor the progress
    of this system, as advisories on a potential tropical cyclone,
    accompanied by tropical storm watches for portions of this area, are
    likely to be issued later today.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.


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