NavarreDon

Evening all, just wanted to check in and make sure you all are safe. All of you & WNC are in my thoughts & prayers! Please be safe and choose wisely!!!


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I don’t know how things lay down there so can you break it down Into miles and east or west?
thanks 

I’ve got friends  in Grayton  Beach and in laws at  Seagrove  and Grayton had dramatic picture of leading edge.
Where are those two spots in relation to you and projected landfall?
Thanks 

From EVX it looks like landfall around the Indian pass/Cape San Blas area in the next 2-3 hours.


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Out on Navarre Beach, you can see the storm off in the distance, surf is up even with the offshore flow.





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Another E shift on the guidance for the 18Z run. I’m out of it now, & will have to mow tomorrow….ugh!




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Under a warning now.

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the coast of theFlorida Panhandle from Indian Pass to Steinhatchee River.A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the coast of theFlorida Panhandle from Navarre to the Wakulla/Jefferson County line.

Here we go…..

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the coast of the
Florida Panhandle from Navarre to the Wakulla/Jefferson County line.


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Here we go…..

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the coast of the
Florida Panhandle from Navarre to the Wakulla/Jefferson County line.


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1 hour ago, Modfan2 said:

What are you prepping? 

LOL, not a lot to prep for! Secure some things in the yard, gas in vehicles (due to others), ect.

Up early this morning, prep will begin as watches have been hoisted.


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Looks like some towers around what was the center of Fred?


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Obviously it’s a filthy mess but this always raises the eyebrow!!!!




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18z models trended way west

Storm Banter threads are a good place for many of us who come here for entertainment, but from what I've seen they only come up when something gets serious.
We all come for what the mets say, of course. With this site having almost 17,000 members, like it or not, these threads are fun for we who are weather nerds looking for a place to hang out. I know I post too much, but try to add graphics or occasional attempts at serious opinions, etc. But personally enjoy other people's thoughts who are on the same level as myself.
Maybe Banter should come up before a storm is a dangerous threat so we who just have fun sharing "banter" are free to entertain ourselves. It is a balance hard for people like me who sometimes (always) get excited about any little weather thing.
But then we must ask, what is "normal" anyway.
I'm a web developer, wonder if the world needs a Weather Forum for non-mets...
 
 
 

This. It's obviously something to track but 1) there's nothing too exciting happening right now IMO and 2) there are a lot of tropical snobs on the board. Some only show up if there's a major (wind) event in the cards. 
That said, let's talk tropical  
I've been lukewarm on Fred's future, and it seems that the guidance has pulled back as well. Keep in mind that runs like the HWRF and that one GFS run were outliers, and even GEFS and EPS guidance were more bearish on the possibilities of a strong system coming into Florida. 

To be clear, Fred is not dead. It has developed a pretty impressive burst of convection. However, you can see clearly from the visible loop below that shear is present, as the cloud tops are being blown away from the center. 


Despite the very warm SSTs and OHC, it's going to take time for a weakened Fred to be in a low enough shear environment to allow for any type of significant intensification. That's why the current NHC forecast doesn't get this to hurricane or even high end TS status. 
One caveat could be if Fred is able to avoid land interaction (GFS and Euro take it into the FL Peninsula before getting to the Gulf) perhaps it can intensify a bit more because it'll have more time, but I think the ceiling is minimal hurricane if everything became aligned. 
I think a mid-strength TS much like the NHC is forecasting is the eventual outcome, and it should be mentioned again that this looks to be a significant rainmaker for someone. 

At work & just saw this, looks like a shift to the west….thoughts?


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This is great news.  Where do you think the best place for me to set up to see guaranteed Tropical Storm force conditions with the possibility of Hurricane conditions?

 
Tapatalk still not working

5 minutes ago, Stormfly said:

No dark mode!

And most importantly this update breaks tapatalk which is my goto from mobile!  Can this be fixed?

Really frustrating & yes is there a fix in the works!!!?

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Jun 30 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad low pressure area
and tropical wave located about 1300 miles east-southeast of the
Windward Islands have become better organized since yesterday.
However, recent satellite wind data indicates that the disturbance
does not have a well-defined circulation. Environmental conditions
appear generally favorable for continued development, and a tropical
depression or storm is likely to form during the next day or two
while the system moves west-northwestward at 20 to 25 mph.
Interests in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor the progress
of this system, as advisories on a potential tropical cyclone,
accompanied by tropical storm watches for portions of this area, are
likely to be issued later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.


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As a seasoned web developer, if there is no backup available they are probably lost forever. Delete can be a terrible thing, believe me I know all to well. Especially when database records are deleted. Databases do not remember.

Probably gone unfortunately... but maybe [mention=2]Wow[/mention] may know?  I think he is our resident board technician?

https://www.news8000.com/i/claudette-regaining-strength-after-13-killed-in-alabama/