NavarreDon

Here we go…..

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the coast of the
Florida Panhandle from Navarre to the Wakulla/Jefferson County line.


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1 hour ago, Modfan2 said:

What are you prepping? 

LOL, not a lot to prep for! Secure some things in the yard, gas in vehicles (due to others), ect.

Up early this morning, prep will begin as watches have been hoisted.


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Looks like some towers around what was the center of Fred?


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Obviously it’s a filthy mess but this always raises the eyebrow!!!!




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18z models trended way west

Storm Banter threads are a good place for many of us who come here for entertainment, but from what I've seen they only come up when something gets serious.
We all come for what the mets say, of course. With this site having almost 17,000 members, like it or not, these threads are fun for we who are weather nerds looking for a place to hang out. I know I post too much, but try to add graphics or occasional attempts at serious opinions, etc. But personally enjoy other people's thoughts who are on the same level as myself.
Maybe Banter should come up before a storm is a dangerous threat so we who just have fun sharing "banter" are free to entertain ourselves. It is a balance hard for people like me who sometimes (always) get excited about any little weather thing.
But then we must ask, what is "normal" anyway.
I'm a web developer, wonder if the world needs a Weather Forum for non-mets...
 
 
 

This. It's obviously something to track but 1) there's nothing too exciting happening right now IMO and 2) there are a lot of tropical snobs on the board. Some only show up if there's a major (wind) event in the cards. 
That said, let's talk tropical  
I've been lukewarm on Fred's future, and it seems that the guidance has pulled back as well. Keep in mind that runs like the HWRF and that one GFS run were outliers, and even GEFS and EPS guidance were more bearish on the possibilities of a strong system coming into Florida. 

To be clear, Fred is not dead. It has developed a pretty impressive burst of convection. However, you can see clearly from the visible loop below that shear is present, as the cloud tops are being blown away from the center. 


Despite the very warm SSTs and OHC, it's going to take time for a weakened Fred to be in a low enough shear environment to allow for any type of significant intensification. That's why the current NHC forecast doesn't get this to hurricane or even high end TS status. 
One caveat could be if Fred is able to avoid land interaction (GFS and Euro take it into the FL Peninsula before getting to the Gulf) perhaps it can intensify a bit more because it'll have more time, but I think the ceiling is minimal hurricane if everything became aligned. 
I think a mid-strength TS much like the NHC is forecasting is the eventual outcome, and it should be mentioned again that this looks to be a significant rainmaker for someone. 

At work & just saw this, looks like a shift to the west….thoughts?


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This is great news.  Where do you think the best place for me to set up to see guaranteed Tropical Storm force conditions with the possibility of Hurricane conditions?

 
Tapatalk still not working

5 minutes ago, Stormfly said:

No dark mode!

And most importantly this update breaks tapatalk which is my goto from mobile!  Can this be fixed?

Really frustrating & yes is there a fix in the works!!!?

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Jun 30 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad low pressure area
and tropical wave located about 1300 miles east-southeast of the
Windward Islands have become better organized since yesterday.
However, recent satellite wind data indicates that the disturbance
does not have a well-defined circulation. Environmental conditions
appear generally favorable for continued development, and a tropical
depression or storm is likely to form during the next day or two
while the system moves west-northwestward at 20 to 25 mph.
Interests in the Lesser Antilles should closely monitor the progress
of this system, as advisories on a potential tropical cyclone,
accompanied by tropical storm watches for portions of this area, are
likely to be issued later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.


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As a seasoned web developer, if there is no backup available they are probably lost forever. Delete can be a terrible thing, believe me I know all to well. Especially when database records are deleted. Databases do not remember.

Probably gone unfortunately... but maybe [mention=2]Wow[/mention] may know?  I think he is our resident board technician?

https://www.news8000.com/i/claudette-regaining-strength-after-13-killed-in-alabama/

Our winds are sustained @ 30+ and gusting over 40 here in Navarre. I have certainly been thru better looking TS’s that weren’t as impressive.


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Welcome baby girl.....hahahaha!

WTNT43 KNHC 190859
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Claudette Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032021
400 AM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021

The system that we have been tracking for a few days finally has 
enough of a well-defined center and organized convection to be 
considered a tropical storm.  While the organization is not
classical by any means, and there are some hybrid characteristics,
the cyclone most resembles a sheared tropical storm, so the system
is now Tropical Storm Claudette.  The initial wind speed remains 40
kt, in line with surface observations and radar.  These winds are
primarily occurring in a strong band on the eastern side of the
cyclone well away from the center.

Came home from FWB to Navarre (7-7:45pm). Bands of rain, in FWB no wind to speak of, Hurlburt field to Navarre was about *20mph sustained with gust to 30mph. About .9" of precip so far at the home gauge.

*estimated winds

Much better convection developing today as it approaches landfall—like the models suggested. Still lopsided, but better organized per recon. 

The first outer band is coming ashore in FL,AL,MS, & LA now.

They got degrees, I don't, but unless it just never closes a low, the current center, as dry as a bone,  (still seeing 15C T/Td spreads) dissipates and a new center develops near 90W, or I suspect the entire cone should be shifted a couple of degrees to the East.  Only way a 40 or 45 knot storm will occur is if there is a center jump fairly soon.
 
Edit, I have a BS, but not in met/atmospheric science or anything close.  Engineering.

And away we go…..lol



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WTNT43 KNHC 172034
TCDAT3

Potential Tropical Cyclone Three Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032021
400 PM CDT Thu Jun 17 2021

Visible satellite images show that the cloud pattern associated with
the broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico is gradually becoming better organized. Deep convection is
beginning to form a broad curved band over the eastern portion of
the system, similar to what one might see in a developing
subtropical cyclone. Although the upper-level winds are not
particularly favorable for development, with lots of westerly shear
over the area, the global models do suggest tropical/subtropical
cyclogenesis within the next 12 hours or so. Given the proximity of
the disturbance to land, which requires tropical storm warnings at
this time, advisories are being initiated on this system as a
potential tropical cyclone.

Earlier scatterometer data suggested that the circulation was still
rather broad. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane is currently
investigating the system and has not yet found a well-defined
center. Maximum winds based on surface observations and the
scatterometer pass are near 25 kt. Numerical intensity guidance do
not indicate a great deal of strengthening before the system
reaches the coastline, and the official forecast is at the high end
of the guidance.

Since the center is not that well-defined at this time, the initial
motion estimate, 360/8 is quite uncertain. The system is expected
to move northward into a weakness in the subtropical ridge for the
next day or so and then, after landfall along the central Gulf
Coast, turn toward the northeast on the northwest side of a
mid-level anticyclone near Florida. The official track forecast is
closest to the GFS and ECMWF predictions. It should be noted,
however, that these models suggest some reformation of the center
near the Louisiana coast rather than just motion from the southwest
Gulf to the expected coastal landfall point.

Given the current and anticipated structure of this system, users
should not focus on the exact track of the center, as rainfall and
wind hazards are likely to extend well east of the center and arrive
well in advance of landfall.

Key Messages:

1. The system is expected to produce heavy rainfall and considerable
flash, urban, and small stream flooding beginning Friday and
continuing through the weekend along the central Gulf coast and
spreading northeastward into the Southern Appalachians.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin Friday in areas
near and well to the east of the center along portions of the
central Gulf Coast from Intracoastal City, Louisiana, to the
Alabama/Florida border, including New Orleans.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 22.9N 92.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 18/0600Z 24.5N 92.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 18/1800Z 26.5N 92.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 29.0N 92.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 31.5N 89.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 20/0600Z 34.0N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 20/1800Z 35.0N 84.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
96H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Brennan


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