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Posts posted by NavarreDon
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Not a big fan of the last 2 GFS runs. Navarre looks like ground zero! Thankfully it's early in the game and changes should be plentiful.
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Forward motion matters with respect to the Pandhandle and shelf waters as well. Sure, if the potential TC is intense but gets left behind prior to landfall, it would stall, upwell itself plus entrain continental airmass. However, if it remains at a decent northerly forward motion into the panhandle, shelf waters are still currently running hot. There has yet to be a significant cold front pass through or at least one to bring down SSTs. So the shallow shelf would be more than sufficient to fuel a Cat 5 just like Michael or Camille. Of course, a hook to the right, 300mb flow, trough ventilation, structure, trough bypass, all speculation for a week or more and we don't even have a TC yet.
Close to or record high temps forecast along the northern gulf coast over the next few days. Low 90’s along the coast & mid to upper 90’s inland. Here is my NWS pinpoint:
Today
Sunny, with a high near 91. East wind around 5 mph becoming south in the afternoon.
Tonight
Mostly clear, with a low around 74. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming north after midnight.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 92. North wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west in the afternoon.
Thursday Night
Clear, with a low around 73. West wind around 10 mph becoming north after midnight.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 90. North wind 5 to 10 mph.
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18Z GFS is further west on this run. At this point anywhere from LA down to the FL Keys should have an eyebrow raised.
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Pensacola gusted to 47 when the “center” went by. Based on radar I’d say there was a strong possibility this became a TD just before landfall
Agreed, will they do post analysis & if so wonder what it’ll lead to?
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Let’s kick things off.
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Is the red sleet/mixed precipitation?
It is, mainly some freezing rain.
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I realize it’s off topic for this thread but, I thought you all might get a kick out of this.
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Don’t see this everyday!
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I wanna stay in here
LOL!!!
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16° and over a foot of snow now in Wolf.
Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
Wolf Ridge cam shows it snowing hard currently!
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Congrats to all & thanks for letting me ride along!!!
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Not familiar with the area yet, how does the Spruce Pine area in Mitchell County set up for Flow Snow?
You’ll be pleased!
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My Brother (4100’) outside of Glenville has about 14”, multiple measures, as best as he can figure. Here’s a pic he snapped a while ago.
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Just got a text from my brother (4100’) just outside of Glenville. Best he can tell he’s over a foot with heavy snow now & very windy.
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The backside of this system means business, it’s currently 39 with a stiff NW wind down at the beach.
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Just talked to a buddy in Woodstock GA and he’s gone over to snow.
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That dry slot seems to be filling in. Interesting seeing the SW flow of moisture swing through in eastern GA
http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/radimg/anim_nrc.gif
That’s a great view! It gives a good look at what’s to come!
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Hey hey looky here….lol!
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1 minute ago, ncjoaquin said:
That's what's unreal. If this one doesn't mix, this could be one for the ages. Hoping to avoid this dry slot also.
Awesome Jason! pics?
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Congrats to all of you!!! To say I'm jealous would be an understatement. Keep the obs, pics, & vids coming.
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Downstream obs from Navarre in the W FL Panhandle. Storm is over performing. Already with 1.17” & more to come.
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Edit to add no convection so far that could rob upstream moisture.-
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Isn’t it sustained >25 for 24hr or is that just down here in Piedmont? That may be wrong too though
Sustained 35 mph with 1/4 mile or less visibility for at least a 3 hr period.
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It’s basically go time now. Model watching is about over. If I was up there I’d be looking at the strength & placement of the HP & watching the track, speed of the developing LP.
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You can Blame Cantore for the Frz rain in Asheville, as he's headed there lol
TWC has boots on the ground in AVL already, Felicia Combs reporting this morning.
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Hurricane Ian
in Tropical Headquarters
Posted
Completely agree! We have a family reunion planed in your neck of the woods (Riverview) right in the storm timeline. The aftermath of a system is a royal pain but deep down we want to experience it.
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