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NavarreDon

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    2024-2025 Fall/Winter Mountain Thread

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    My thoughts and prayers are with all of you!!! Twitter is absolutely ablaze with WNC right now. If you have coverage and are on Twitter post it up. If you can’t and need something to be relayed post it here and I will send it. Jesse Farrell posted this is Asheville’s & WNC Katrina. The death toll will almost certainly rise and based on my knowledge it will take years to recover from this event! I am here to help how I can. Reach out to me & I will do my best. In the meantime be safe, Godspeed brothers!!!


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    • Like 3
    • 100% 1

    2024-2025 Fall/Winter Mountain Thread

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    What up Mnt peeps! Just wanted to stop by and wish you all well. This will exceed the back to back 2004 impacts of Frances & Ivan (if you know you know!). Be ready for torrential rains or should I say more of it! Gusty wind with saturated soil will bring many trees down. Debris & mudslides will be likely. You’re a veteran group but for any newer residents it’s critically important you stay weather aware! Godspeed to all of you & you’ll be in my thoughts! Stay safe.


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    • Like 5

    Hurricane Francine

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    Did not expect this!!!


    000
    WTNT31 KNHC 112056
    TCPAT1

    BULLETIN
    Hurricane Francine Advisory Number 13
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
    400 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024

    ...FRANCINE BECOMES A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE AS THE EYE APPROACHES
    THE LOUISIANA COAST...
    ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING
    ONTO THE LOUISIANA COAST...


    SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...29.2N 91.5W
    ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
    ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


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    • Like 2
    • 100% 2

    Hurricane Francine

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    That evening convective burst might just send Francine over the edge into hurricane status.

    000
    WTNT31 KNHC 102330
    TCPAT1

    BULLETIN
    Hurricane Francine Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
    700 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024

    ...FRANCINE BECOMES A HURRICANE...
    ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED
    TO BEGIN IN LOUISIANA ON WEDNESDAY...


    SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...25.8N 94.8W
    ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM E OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
    ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


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    • Like 3

    Tropical Storm Alberto--Mexico Landfall at 50mph/993mb

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    Some of those northern gulf rigs have been gusting 55-60 mph since yesterday. While I doubt that mixes down, it just shows that this storm has a very broad amount of energy. TS gusts showing up on multiple land based sites now in Texas 

    To your point on broad. The wind here in Navarre has been sustained at 15-20 with a pretty regular gust pattern of 30+ since yesterday morning.


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    • Like 3

    Pretty remarkablly anomolous severe event Jan. 8/9 over panhandle

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    YIKES!!!

    National Weather Service Mobile AL
    345 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024

    ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

    .NEAR TERM...
    (Now through Tuesday)
    Issued at 345 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024

    No mincing words here, our concerns for the overnight period
    tonight is serious. A incredibly impactful system has begun across
    our area and conditions will rapidly deteriorate throughout the
    night. The potential for significant severe appears likely across
    most of the area including the potential for several significant
    tornadoes (EF-2+) and damaging winds in excess of 70 mph. While
    the current severe risk is at an enhanced, the ceiling of this
    environment could easily support a more significant severe threat
    and only minor confidence questions are holding back from higher
    severe probs. Nonetheless, these confidences may not improve until
    we see the white of its eyes and this event needs to be treated
    seriously. On top of significant severe, intense wind gusts of 50
    to 60 mph, minor to moderate coastal flooding and extremely high
    surf will all be possible overnight tonight. Coastal and wind
    impacts will likely be on the higher end for non-tropical systems
    for the Mobile area.

    I`ll keep the synoptics short here as by this point its about
    small scale things and impacts. I think we all understand by this
    point there`s a rather strong system moving through.

    Severe Threat...The makings of a significant severe thunderstorm
    threat looks likely tonight and into Tuesday morning. An intense
    low level jet will usher plenty of warm air and rich Gulf moisture
    into the area with temperatures/dew points rising nearly 20
    degrees over the next 18 hours. These factors will likely have no
    issue working instability inland across our area as the marine
    boundary lifts northward. All the high resolution guidance
    continues to have around 1000 J/KG of MLCape making its way to
    the highway 84 corridor with some guidance hinting at near 2000
    J/KG near the I-10 corridor. On top of the instability the shear
    will be absolutely insane with 0-1 KM SRH values in the warm
    sector hovering around the 500 to 700 m2/s2 and with no surprise,
    forecast soundings continue to indicate very significant low
    level curvature. Intense jet dynamics in the right entrance
    region of the upper jet will likely lead to widespread convective
    coverage beginning around midnight, likely overcoming the intense
    shear allowing for storms to rapidly organize. This event will go
    from 0 to 100 very quickly as the upper jet moves in and the
    intense low level jet increases. Rain will likely begin well
    before the severe weather arrives and things will likely go from
    showers and a few elevated thunderstorms to numerous severe storms
    in a couple hours. DO NOT LET YOUR GUARD DOWN BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

    Expect two possibly three rounds of severe weather to be possible
    with rounds two and three capable of significant severe. The
    first of three rounds is a little more conditional as the marine
    boundary moves inland. Given the shear environment, relatively
    low freezing level heights and deep EL`s, elevated storms would be
    possible with some hail probably around 1 inch in diameter. This
    will likely occur prior to midnight and in the grand scheme of
    things this threat is a mole hill compared to the mountain ahead.

    The second round is when things will begin to rapidly go downhill
    as the clock strikes midnight (or around that time). Recent high
    res-guidance continues to uptrend in the possibility of a few
    discrete to semi-discrete supercells developing along a
    confluence band ahead of the main line as the marine boundary
    lifts north shortly around midnight or just after. Given the shear
    environment and the boundary, this environment would be more than
    supportive of strong tornadoes and if these cells truly are able
    to take full advantage of the environment then the ceiling may be
    higher. The big question for higher end potential is can these
    storms sustain themselves with a lot of cell interactions,
    intense shear, modest but quickly increasing instability and stay
    within the optimal boundary spot to remain tornado producers.
    Unfortunately, some of our strongest tornadoes locally have
    occurred in environments along these marine boundaries and warm
    fronts when they are able to sustain themselves within the
    optimal boundary mode. While we are still unsure about this
    potential, the high impact nature of this period warrants great
    concern and if confidence continues to increase this would likely
    be the driving force into any potential severe upgrades heading
    into the evening.

    Then final punch will arrives shortly after round two in the 2 am
    to 8am timeframe in the form of a rather strong QLCS. This
    heavily forced squall line will only intensify as the upper jet
    overspreads and the LLJ increases. The combination of strong
    kinematics and low level instability with 0- 3km cape values
    likely approaching 100k/kg or more will support strong vertical
    stretching in a incredibly rich vorticity environment. This
    environment will truly peak east of I-65 across the western
    Florida Panhandle and into south central Alabama. Based off recent
    research this environment will be primed for QLCS tornadoes and
    given the upper echelon shear environment, strong QLCS tornadoes
    (EF-2+) could be possible. Along with the tornadoes, strong
    damaging winds will also be likely with wind gusts in excess of 70
    mph given 850 and 925 mb winds will already be high. This has the
    potential to be a rather intense severe event occurring
    overnight. Be sure to continue to stay updated and have multiple
    ways to receive warnings that are battery operated and charged as
    power may go out well before severe thunderstorms arrive.

    Wind Impacts...An extremely tight pressure gradient will develop
    over the area through tonight as the surface low pressure drops into
    the upper 980s. This will result in very windy conditions. Winds
    have already been gusting to 30 mph across the area this afternoon
    and are expected to increase into the evening. Winds well offshore
    have continued to climb with gusts to near 55 mph already. These
    winds will steadily move towards the coast this evening. A high
    end Wind Advisory has been issued for much of the area for wind
    gusts of 40-50 mph. Winds will be even higher along the coast with
    gusts up to 60 mph possible late tonight and early Tuesday
    morning as a powerful low level jet pushes into the area. A rather
    rare High Wind Warning has been issued for these coastal areas.
    The compounding impacts of increased winds and ongoing rainfall to
    saturate the soil will make trees and power lines more
    susceptible to being blown over outside of any thunderstorms.
    Because of this, power outages will be possible well before any
    severe thunderstorms arrive so it is very important to have
    multiple ways to receive warnings overnight. Be sure to charge
    battery powered methods of receiving warnings before going to bed
    and be sure to secure loose items outside.

    Beach/Coastal Hazards....Very strong onshore flow will result in
    dangerous rip currents and extremely high surf conditions at all
    area beaches. Surf heights of 10 to 15 feet are expected and will
    likely lead to beach erosion and coastal overwash along flood
    prone barrier islands. A High risk of Rip Currents is in effect
    through early this week and a High Surf Warning remains in effect
    through Wednesday morning. On top of the intense wave action,
    strong and persistent low level winds will push water inland
    leading to coastal flooding. The current forecast supports solid
    coastal flooding with coastal flood warning conditions potentially
    occurring within Mobile Bay. Given that these strong low level
    jet scenarios tend to over perform with coastal flooding, we went
    ahead and upgraded Mobile Bay to a Coastal Flood Warning. Expect
    potentially moderate coastal flooding across most of the barrier
    islands and Mobile Bay.

    Heavy Rainfall... PWATS will steadily climb in advance of the system
    with values approaching the climatological maximum for this time of
    year. This moisture combined with better instability will result in
    some heavier rain rates this afternoon and overnight. Storms will be
    capable of producing heavy rainfall in a short period of time, but
    given the progressive nature and the fact that we are still in a
    drought, there is still low confidence in significant flooding
    impacts. Most areas will likely see 2-4 inches of rainfall now
    through Tuesday with some areas potentially picking up 6 inches in
    this time frame. A localized advisory or warning cannot be ruled
    out.

    This is about as serious as it gets across our area with respects
    to impacts. Please remain weather aware tonight and have an
    emergency plan in place. Be sure to have a way to receive
    warnings that will wake you up and quickly go to your safe place.
    Prep your safe place now as power outages might make things
    difficult tonight. Trust us we do not want to be issuing tornado
    warnings at 4 am either and hopefully things find a way to pan out
    to the better. We will be right here with you through the night!
    BB/03


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