NavarreDon
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Posts posted by NavarreDon
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933 mb / 155 kt as of 11 AM
MPH?
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Looks like there will be an associated PRE with this setup as well before the potential TC reaches the peninsula:
Hmmm….sounds familiar!
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Help coming from FL
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My thoughts and prayers are with all of you!!! Twitter is absolutely ablaze with WNC right now. If you have coverage and are on Twitter post it up. If you can’t and need something to be relayed post it here and I will send it. Jesse Farrell posted this is Asheville’s & WNC Katrina. The death toll will almost certainly rise and based on my knowledge it will take years to recover from this event! I am here to help how I can. Reach out to me & I will do my best. In the meantime be safe, Godspeed brothers!!!
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Navarre is currently 190 miles west of the center and my pressure is down 998.65!
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What up Mnt peeps! Just wanted to stop by and wish you all well. This will exceed the back to back 2004 impacts of Frances & Ivan (if you know you know!). Be ready for torrential rains or should I say more of it! Gusty wind with saturated soil will bring many trees down. Debris & mudslides will be likely. You’re a veteran group but for any newer residents it’s critically important you stay weather aware! Godspeed to all of you & you’ll be in my thoughts! Stay safe.
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Some amazing clouds this evening in Navarre, upper level outflow from the storm (ripping NE) & prefrontal storm clouds below.
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Perspective on the size of Helene, the TS wind field is jaw dropping!
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles
(555 km).
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Definitely have my eyes towards this situation as should anyone from Mississippi to Sarasota. So many variables at this point. Here is the first cone of PT 14 (Michael) just to drive that point home.
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Did not expect this!!!
000
WTNT31 KNHC 112056
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
Hurricane Francine Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
400 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024
...FRANCINE BECOMES A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE AS THE EYE APPROACHES
THE LOUISIANA COAST...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING
ONTO THE LOUISIANA COAST...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.2N 91.5W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES
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That evening convective burst might just send Francine over the edge into hurricane status.
000
WTNT31 KNHC 102330
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
Hurricane Francine Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
700 PM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024
...FRANCINE BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN IN LOUISIANA ON WEDNESDAY...
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...25.8N 94.8W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM E OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES
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Some of those northern gulf rigs have been gusting 55-60 mph since yesterday. While I doubt that mixes down, it just shows that this storm has a very broad amount of energy. TS gusts showing up on multiple land based sites now in Texas
To your point on broad. The wind here in Navarre has been sustained at 15-20 with a pretty regular gust pattern of 30+ since yesterday morning.
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The Mariana supercell is a dangerous one for sure moving into SW GA.
Indeed!
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Possible tornado in Panama City Beach this morning.
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https://x.com/jimmypatronis/status/1744738611122389464?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA -
Some sporty weather here in Navarre but overall an under performer for us in the west. Things cranking up as the line moves east of Okaloosa County. Stay safe Skip!!!
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YIKES!!!
National Weather Service Mobile AL
345 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday)
Issued at 345 PM CST Mon Jan 8 2024
No mincing words here, our concerns for the overnight period
tonight is serious. A incredibly impactful system has begun across
our area and conditions will rapidly deteriorate throughout the
night. The potential for significant severe appears likely across
most of the area including the potential for several significant
tornadoes (EF-2+) and damaging winds in excess of 70 mph. While
the current severe risk is at an enhanced, the ceiling of this
environment could easily support a more significant severe threat
and only minor confidence questions are holding back from higher
severe probs. Nonetheless, these confidences may not improve until
we see the white of its eyes and this event needs to be treated
seriously. On top of significant severe, intense wind gusts of 50
to 60 mph, minor to moderate coastal flooding and extremely high
surf will all be possible overnight tonight. Coastal and wind
impacts will likely be on the higher end for non-tropical systems
for the Mobile area.
I`ll keep the synoptics short here as by this point its about
small scale things and impacts. I think we all understand by this
point there`s a rather strong system moving through.
Severe Threat...The makings of a significant severe thunderstorm
threat looks likely tonight and into Tuesday morning. An intense
low level jet will usher plenty of warm air and rich Gulf moisture
into the area with temperatures/dew points rising nearly 20
degrees over the next 18 hours. These factors will likely have no
issue working instability inland across our area as the marine
boundary lifts northward. All the high resolution guidance
continues to have around 1000 J/KG of MLCape making its way to
the highway 84 corridor with some guidance hinting at near 2000
J/KG near the I-10 corridor. On top of the instability the shear
will be absolutely insane with 0-1 KM SRH values in the warm
sector hovering around the 500 to 700 m2/s2 and with no surprise,
forecast soundings continue to indicate very significant low
level curvature. Intense jet dynamics in the right entrance
region of the upper jet will likely lead to widespread convective
coverage beginning around midnight, likely overcoming the intense
shear allowing for storms to rapidly organize. This event will go
from 0 to 100 very quickly as the upper jet moves in and the
intense low level jet increases. Rain will likely begin well
before the severe weather arrives and things will likely go from
showers and a few elevated thunderstorms to numerous severe storms
in a couple hours. DO NOT LET YOUR GUARD DOWN BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
Expect two possibly three rounds of severe weather to be possible
with rounds two and three capable of significant severe. The
first of three rounds is a little more conditional as the marine
boundary moves inland. Given the shear environment, relatively
low freezing level heights and deep EL`s, elevated storms would be
possible with some hail probably around 1 inch in diameter. This
will likely occur prior to midnight and in the grand scheme of
things this threat is a mole hill compared to the mountain ahead.
The second round is when things will begin to rapidly go downhill
as the clock strikes midnight (or around that time). Recent high
res-guidance continues to uptrend in the possibility of a few
discrete to semi-discrete supercells developing along a
confluence band ahead of the main line as the marine boundary
lifts north shortly around midnight or just after. Given the shear
environment and the boundary, this environment would be more than
supportive of strong tornadoes and if these cells truly are able
to take full advantage of the environment then the ceiling may be
higher. The big question for higher end potential is can these
storms sustain themselves with a lot of cell interactions,
intense shear, modest but quickly increasing instability and stay
within the optimal boundary spot to remain tornado producers.
Unfortunately, some of our strongest tornadoes locally have
occurred in environments along these marine boundaries and warm
fronts when they are able to sustain themselves within the
optimal boundary mode. While we are still unsure about this
potential, the high impact nature of this period warrants great
concern and if confidence continues to increase this would likely
be the driving force into any potential severe upgrades heading
into the evening.
Then final punch will arrives shortly after round two in the 2 am
to 8am timeframe in the form of a rather strong QLCS. This
heavily forced squall line will only intensify as the upper jet
overspreads and the LLJ increases. The combination of strong
kinematics and low level instability with 0- 3km cape values
likely approaching 100k/kg or more will support strong vertical
stretching in a incredibly rich vorticity environment. This
environment will truly peak east of I-65 across the western
Florida Panhandle and into south central Alabama. Based off recent
research this environment will be primed for QLCS tornadoes and
given the upper echelon shear environment, strong QLCS tornadoes
(EF-2+) could be possible. Along with the tornadoes, strong
damaging winds will also be likely with wind gusts in excess of 70
mph given 850 and 925 mb winds will already be high. This has the
potential to be a rather intense severe event occurring
overnight. Be sure to continue to stay updated and have multiple
ways to receive warnings that are battery operated and charged as
power may go out well before severe thunderstorms arrive.
Wind Impacts...An extremely tight pressure gradient will develop
over the area through tonight as the surface low pressure drops into
the upper 980s. This will result in very windy conditions. Winds
have already been gusting to 30 mph across the area this afternoon
and are expected to increase into the evening. Winds well offshore
have continued to climb with gusts to near 55 mph already. These
winds will steadily move towards the coast this evening. A high
end Wind Advisory has been issued for much of the area for wind
gusts of 40-50 mph. Winds will be even higher along the coast with
gusts up to 60 mph possible late tonight and early Tuesday
morning as a powerful low level jet pushes into the area. A rather
rare High Wind Warning has been issued for these coastal areas.
The compounding impacts of increased winds and ongoing rainfall to
saturate the soil will make trees and power lines more
susceptible to being blown over outside of any thunderstorms.
Because of this, power outages will be possible well before any
severe thunderstorms arrive so it is very important to have
multiple ways to receive warnings overnight. Be sure to charge
battery powered methods of receiving warnings before going to bed
and be sure to secure loose items outside.
Beach/Coastal Hazards....Very strong onshore flow will result in
dangerous rip currents and extremely high surf conditions at all
area beaches. Surf heights of 10 to 15 feet are expected and will
likely lead to beach erosion and coastal overwash along flood
prone barrier islands. A High risk of Rip Currents is in effect
through early this week and a High Surf Warning remains in effect
through Wednesday morning. On top of the intense wave action,
strong and persistent low level winds will push water inland
leading to coastal flooding. The current forecast supports solid
coastal flooding with coastal flood warning conditions potentially
occurring within Mobile Bay. Given that these strong low level
jet scenarios tend to over perform with coastal flooding, we went
ahead and upgraded Mobile Bay to a Coastal Flood Warning. Expect
potentially moderate coastal flooding across most of the barrier
islands and Mobile Bay.
Heavy Rainfall... PWATS will steadily climb in advance of the system
with values approaching the climatological maximum for this time of
year. This moisture combined with better instability will result in
some heavier rain rates this afternoon and overnight. Storms will be
capable of producing heavy rainfall in a short period of time, but
given the progressive nature and the fact that we are still in a
drought, there is still low confidence in significant flooding
impacts. Most areas will likely see 2-4 inches of rainfall now
through Tuesday with some areas potentially picking up 6 inches in
this time frame. A localized advisory or warning cannot be ruled
out.
This is about as serious as it gets across our area with respects
to impacts. Please remain weather aware tonight and have an
emergency plan in place. Be sure to have a way to receive
warnings that will wake you up and quickly go to your safe place.
Prep your safe place now as power outages might make things
difficult tonight. Trust us we do not want to be issuing tornado
warnings at 4 am either and hopefully things find a way to pan out
to the better. We will be right here with you through the night!
BB/03
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Major Hurricane Milton
in Tropical Headquarters
Posted
Wow!!!
Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024
Milton's remarkable rapid intensification is continuing. Satellite
images show a small eye within the very cold central cloud cover,
and the eye is becoming better defined. Data from the Mexican
radar at Sabancuy show a small, closed eye with an intense eyewall
presentation. The Hurricane Hunter aircraft earlier reported a peak
flight-level wind of 146 kt, and dropsonde data show that the
pressure has fallen to around 933 mb, which is down about 22 mb in
4 hours. The initial wind speed is set to 135 kt, which is an
80-kt increase in 24 hours (only eclipsed by Wilma 2005 and Felix
2007 in our records).
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