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Posts posted by NavarreDon

  1. I'm sorry if I still think of last year too much...
    It's likely to hit west of NO close to the Texas border as a Cat3+.
    A late September TS is kind of welcome here in TB, FL. A Cat 1 would be a bit over the top. Seriously, being in a solid mid-TS is an experience to remember. Yet, mostly, clean up and cost would not be real extreme. Granted, sometimes even a thunderstorm clean up costs are too much. 70 mph sustained winds turn a "fun" storm into a serious pain in the behind, if not a total nightmare. When trees start toppling and roofs start blowing apart, it's not fun anymore.
    Fall Tropical Systems are part of our lives around and we do miss them when they stay away.

    Completely agree! We have a family reunion planed in your neck of the woods (Riverview) right in the storm timeline. The aftermath of a system is a royal pain but deep down we want to experience it.

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  2. Forward motion matters with respect to the Pandhandle and shelf waters as well. Sure, if the potential TC is intense but gets left behind prior to landfall, it would stall, upwell itself plus entrain continental airmass. However, if it remains at a decent northerly forward motion into the panhandle, shelf waters are still currently running hot. There has yet to be a significant cold front pass through or at least one to bring down SSTs. So the shallow shelf would be more than sufficient to fuel a Cat 5 just like Michael or Camille. Of course, a hook to the right, 300mb flow, trough ventilation, structure, trough bypass, all speculation for a week or more and we don't even have a TC yet.

    Close to or record high temps forecast along the northern gulf coast over the next few days. Low 90’s along the coast & mid to upper 90’s inland. Here is my NWS pinpoint:

    Sunny, with a high near 91. East wind around 5 mph becoming south in the afternoon.

    Mostly clear, with a low around 74. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming north after midnight.

    Sunny, with a high near 92. North wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west in the afternoon.

    Thursday Night
    Clear, with a low around 73. West wind around 10 mph becoming north after midnight.

    Sunny, with a high near 90. North wind 5 to 10 mph.

  3. Pensacola gusted to 47 when the “center” went by. Based on radar I’d say there was a strong possibility this became a TD just before landfall 

    Agreed, will they do post analysis & if so wonder what it’ll lead to?

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