NavarreDon

Landfall?




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South central Broward county in between Hollywood & Pembroke Pines.




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You can sure see how Ian would have weakened coming into the Northern Gulf coast.  DP's right to the gulf coast in the mid to upper 40's and PW generally just about .50".  Definitely not the case from Tampa southward.  Also very dry over the southeast so very cautious about Ian maintaining fully tropical characteristics once off the N FL coast if that track is realized.  Will have ample supply of dry air to ingest.  Most of the wind generated over the GA/SC/NC coast I think would come from the pressure gradient with big high to the north and lower pressure of Ian to the south.  We'll see.  I'm not looking for any notable second landfall.

Full GFS track. I really hope we see this shift west tomorrow.

12z CMC takes it into Gulf Shores, AL

Wow -- 12Z Euro WELL to the south/left of yesterday's 12z run at 96 hours vs. 72

I'm sorry if I still think of last year too much...
It's likely to hit west of NO close to the Texas border as a Cat3+.
A late September TS is kind of welcome here in TB, FL. A Cat 1 would be a bit over the top. Seriously, being in a solid mid-TS is an experience to remember. Yet, mostly, clean up and cost would not be real extreme. Granted, sometimes even a thunderstorm clean up costs are too much. 70 mph sustained winds turn a "fun" storm into a serious pain in the behind, if not a total nightmare. When trees start toppling and roofs start blowing apart, it's not fun anymore.
Fall Tropical Systems are part of our lives around and we do miss them when they stay away.
 

Not a big fan of the last 2 GFS runs. Navarre looks like ground zero! Thankfully it's early in the game and changes should be plentiful.

Forward motion matters with respect to the Pandhandle and shelf waters as well. Sure, if the potential TC is intense but gets left behind prior to landfall, it would stall, upwell itself plus entrain continental airmass. However, if it remains at a decent northerly forward motion into the panhandle, shelf waters are still currently running hot. There has yet to be a significant cold front pass through or at least one to bring down SSTs. So the shallow shelf would be more than sufficient to fuel a Cat 5 just like Michael or Camille. Of course, a hook to the right, 300mb flow, trough ventilation, structure, trough bypass, all speculation for a week or more and we don't even have a TC yet.

18Z GFS is further west on this run. At this point anywhere from LA down to the FL Keys should have an eyebrow raised.


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Pensacola gusted to 47 when the “center” went by. Based on radar I’d say there was a strong possibility this became a TD just before landfall 

Let’s kick things off.

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Is the red sleet/mixed precipitation?

I realize it’s off topic for this thread but, I thought you all might get a kick out of this.


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Don’t see this everyday!



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I wanna stay in here 

16° and over a foot of snow now in Wolf.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

Congrats to all & thanks for letting me ride along!!!


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Not familiar with the area yet, how does the Spruce Pine area in Mitchell County set up for Flow Snow?

My Brother (4100’) outside of Glenville has about 14”, multiple measures, as best as he can figure. Here’s a pic he snapped a while ago.


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Just got a text from my brother (4100’) just outside of Glenville. Best he can tell he’s over a foot with heavy snow now & very windy.


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The backside of this system means business, it’s currently 39 with a stiff NW wind down at the beach.


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Just talked to a buddy in Woodstock GA and he’s gone over to snow.


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