NavarreDon

Here’s a nice write up from MOB. This might be beneficial to newer/less tropical savvy forum members. Sorry for the length!

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 114 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Things are looking a little more active for the upcoming days. The
entire next three days or so will be centered around Invest 93L and
what comes of that. Currently the mid level center is located near
the Big Bend Region of Florida embedded in a blob of storms. However,
it appears that what low level center we had has lost its way. We
have the body of a potential system but the legs wandered off into
north Florida and until we grow a new pair of legs this system is
likely to struggle. Unfortunately, the moisture will still arrive
eventually leading to a rather soggy next couple of days and the
potential of heavy rainfall on Thursday.

Today will be rather similar to Tuesday. Rain chances will likely
remain confined to the coast and east of I-65 during the afternoon
where the influences of the Invest are most felt. The biggest thing
will be the potential for heavy rainfall from slow moving storms.
PWATS will be above 2 inches with overall likely flow leading to
slow moving and efficient rain makers. However, with how weak the
low is and no true focus for training convection, any flooding rain
would likely be isolated and focused around the poor drainage areas
of the coastal cities. This is rather noticeable in some of the
ensemble guidance with some individual members hinting at some
higher totals approaching 3 to 5 inches but it is sporadic in nature
with an overall mean of around 1 inch. This does not give much
confidence in flooding and thus we will not go with any sort of
flood watch at this time. With the system likely remaining rather
weak and disheveled and the upper ridge in full control, expect
temperatures to get warm across areas northwest of I-65. Heat
indices will likely climb to the 106 to 108 range across
southeastern Mississippi during the afternoon and overall heat risk
will be high across this area. Could consider a heat advisory;
however, hotter times are coming and overall heat stress will likely
be confined to a rather short period. Thus have differed on issuing
one.

Heading into the end of the week, things will remain active with the
potential tropical low slowly meandering towards Louisiana. The good
news is guidance is far from enthused with this system as the upper
ridge continues to push back on the storm and its limited time over
water/proximity to land should keep things in check. Even if it did
organize more, the stronger ensemble members take it further south and
west into the Gulf (more time over water and further from land)
before making landfall in south central Louisiana well west of our
area. A stronger storm would also help boost the ridge to our north
and likely drive the storm west and keep us in the clear from most
of the nasty stuff. The biggest concern looks to be Thursday as rain
chances will be highest. PWATS will climb into the 2.25 to 2.5 inch
range along the northeastern side of the system. Much like
Wednesday, these moisture levels certainly support a risk of
efficient rain makers; however, the aforementioned weaker system
coupled with a stronger ridge really plays against a more widespread
heavy rain threat without a true focus. IF and thats a big if, the
system strengthens a little quicker, then a more focused rain threat
may materialize across coastal Alabama and maybe into southeastern
Mississippi. Overall guidance isn`t enthused and thats probably an
artifact of the system struggling overall. Rain chances will
continue through Friday before the ridge builds back in for the
weekend. A high risk of rip currents will begin on Thursday and last
til at least Saturday as increasing wave action and onshore flow
from the invest begins.


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Don, I have a special place in my heart for the Gulf Coast. I was stationed at NAS Pensacola, and spent some time at the NCBC Gulfport and New Orleans. Great people, great region! I could not be happier for you folks.

One of my best friends (now retired) was a flight surgeon and spent a good bit of time at NAS Pensacola. We will always have a piece of the Mnts in our hearts but we love living here. Thank you all for the kind words and letting me share my out of place posts in your thread!


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https://x.com/nwsmobile/status/1882145805613838512?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA


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https://x.com/iembot_mob/status/1882022996195389884?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA


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Navarre FL 7.75” for a final tally. 16 degrees for the low this morning. Milton FL 20 miles north of me shattered the all time Florida record for snow with 8.8”. It’s been an event that I can’t wrap my head around!






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Good morning from the Panhandle of Florida Mnt & Foothill Peeps, we ended the event with 7.75” of snow & some drifts upwards of 16”. It’s currently 16 degrees. This has truly been a historic storm down this way. Records have been shattered from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Thank you for letting me share my excitement in your thread!!!







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Up to an astounding 7” here in Navarre & still snowing!!! Finding it hard to wrap my head around it.





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Last pics before dark of what has been one of the most surreal snow days of my life! 24 degrees and still snowing!



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Keep em coming Don!

Still puking!!!


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Still puking in Navarre, over 4” best I can tell with the wind. We have some 12” drifts.



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Come to Florida they said, it’ll be sunny & warm! 25 and this….yes I’m loving it.



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I’m butting in again, I’m just floored! When I think it can’t get harder it does. This is truly a once in a lifetime event for the Gulf Coast.




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Puking snow in the Panhandle of FL!!!




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Double post

A through back to being AshevilleDon; nice!

Indeed!!!


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27.5 with this….


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Nice, Don!!! Hammer time. I love it!! Get some pics.

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Light snow has commenced in Navarre FL!!!


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Sorry for barging in on this thread but you guys are my snow homies! Consider me stunned!

https://x.com/nwsmobile/status/1881744640015311354?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA


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Temp 31 dew point 10, here at the beach in the FL Panhandle. 2”-5” is the forecast. Find it hard to believe but, we shall see!


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Hurricane Hunter is sampling out in the gulf to aid the models with this system.


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[mention=2594]NavarreDon[/mention]  If I was a MET I would have added another paragraph at the end of that statement.  Something like:
 Please keep in mind that we are talking about a storm that will most likely give us 3” of snow with some pockets of 6” possible. Roofs are not going to collapse and there will be no avalanches sweeping us into the Gulf.  As mentioned above it has not snowed this much in this area in over 100 years.   Layer up with sweaters and jackets, walk outside and enjoy something you will most likely never see again in your lifetime. Have a snowball fight, build a snowman, just take a walk and enjoy the sights with family and friends.

Hahahahahahahaha!!! A+!

I feel like I’ve entered some alternate reality and I’m back living off of New Stock Rd in N Asheville! Here is my pinpoint NWS forecast hot off the presses….

Tonight
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Wind chill values between 15 and 20. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Tuesday
Snow, mainly after noon. High near 35. Wind chill values between 15 and 25. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Tuesday Night
Snow, mainly before midnight. Low around 21. Wind chill values between 10 and 15. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.


Here is a snippet of the MOB AFD, I recommend a full read if you have a chance,

...A major, potentially historic winter storm is likely across the
area Tuesday through Tuesday night...

Overview:

Confidence has increased in a major to historic winter storm for the
forecast area, particularly across the southern half of the area in
the vicinity of the I-10 corridor Tuesday morning through Tuesday
evening. Forecast guidance this morning and so far early this
afternoon continues to favor a corridor of heavier snow nearer the
coast, with snowfall totals throughout the event on the order of 1
to 3 inches areawide, locally up to 4 or 5 inches over the southern
half of the area. Confidence on higher snowfall totals exists across
the southern half of the forecast area in the vicinity of the I-10
corridor. This storm has the potential to be historic for portions
of the forecast area, with Mobile`s 24hr snowfall record being 6"
set in 1895, and Pensacola`s 24hr snowfall record being 3" set in
1895.

Hello all, sounds like it’s been a decent January for you. I really thought this storm would trend north based on history with these systems. Boy was I wrong! I realize there is a dedicated thread for this but I wanted to share this here (mods please feel free to move if needed). Below is part of the MOB AFD from this afternoon. It’s certainly something I never thought I’d see. We are less than a mile from the water so I’m sure we’ll have some mixing issues. Sorry for the long post and the lack of relevance!

Winter Storm Likely... A potentially significant winter storm is
expected to affect areas along the northern Gulf Coast on Tuesday.
At this point, the "dry scenario" is pretty much off the table, and
with high probabilities suggesting that much of the area will see at
least 1 to 2 inches of snow, the entire local area is now under a
Winter Storm Watch from 6am Tuesday morning through 6am Wednesday
morning. Although there are still some precip-type uncertainties
along the coast, this will likely be an all-snow event for much of
the local area. Along the coast, there may be just enough of a warm
nose around the 850mb level to allow for some sleet pellets to be
mixed in. Otherwise, looking at temperature profiles prior to the
onset of precip, the dendritic growth zone looks to become fully
saturated by around 09z-12z overtop a very dry 0-1km layer. Precip
should initially start off as virga, or as very light flurries. Over
the following couple hours, the dry lower levels will begin to
moisten and cool (due to wet bulbing effects), likely bringing
surface temperatures/dew points into the 20s. By this point, heavier
snowfall rates will become realized and due to the colder
temperatures at the surface, snow will start to accumulate. Looking
at ensembles, the probability of accumulated snowfall greater than 3
inches continues to increase in comparison to previous days.
Probabilities now stand at roughly 40 to 60 percent, which is why we
are becoming increasingly concerned that this will be a significant
event for the local area. If snow amounts over three inches actually
occurred at KMOB, this would place us in the top 5 for historic
snowfall amounts on record for the site. If three inches of snow
occurs at KPNS, this would be actually be the highest accumulating
event since the late 1800s! It should also be noted that
probabilities have been pushed further to the south over the past
couple days, with the best probabilities lining up around the I-10
corridor. Although there could still be some more minor fluctuations
to where the heaviest snowfall will occur, these trends could lead
to some major problems along our coastal counties. We urge residents
and visitors to continue monitoring the forecast closely over the
next few days and to begin preparing for this event.


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Wowsers!!! If only….




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Several things to consider, a week or so out, synoptics, history, & so on. With all that being said. The 6Z GFS is about as good as it gets for a Mnt paste bomb. If the model holds on to this, look for it to tic north as time goes on.


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