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NavarreDon

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    2024-2025 Fall/Winter Mountain Thread

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    Don, I have a special place in my heart for the Gulf Coast. I was stationed at NAS Pensacola, and spent some time at the NCBC Gulfport and New Orleans. Great people, great region! I could not be happier for you folks.

    One of my best friends (now retired) was a flight surgeon and spent a good bit of time at NAS Pensacola. We will always have a piece of the Mnts in our hearts but we love living here. Thank you all for the kind words and letting me share my out of place posts in your thread!


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    • Like 6

    2024-2025 Fall/Winter Mountain Thread

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    Good morning from the Panhandle of Florida Mnt & Foothill Peeps, we ended the event with 7.75” of snow & some drifts upwards of 16”. It’s currently 16 degrees. This has truly been a historic storm down this way. Records have been shattered from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Thank you for letting me share my excitement in your thread!!!
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    • Like 10

    2024-2025 Fall/Winter Mountain Thread

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    [mention=2594]NavarreDon[/mention]  If I was a MET I would have added another paragraph at the end of that statement.  Something like:
     Please keep in mind that we are talking about a storm that will most likely give us 3” of snow with some pockets of 6” possible. Roofs are not going to collapse and there will be no avalanches sweeping us into the Gulf.  As mentioned above it has not snowed this much in this area in over 100 years.   Layer up with sweaters and jackets, walk outside and enjoy something you will most likely never see again in your lifetime. Have a snowball fight, build a snowman, just take a walk and enjoy the sights with family and friends.

    Hahahahahahahaha!!! A+!

    I feel like I’ve entered some alternate reality and I’m back living off of New Stock Rd in N Asheville! Here is my pinpoint NWS forecast hot off the presses….

    Tonight
    Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Wind chill values between 15 and 20. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

    Tuesday
    Snow, mainly after noon. High near 35. Wind chill values between 15 and 25. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

    Tuesday Night
    Snow, mainly before midnight. Low around 21. Wind chill values between 10 and 15. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.


    Here is a snippet of the MOB AFD, I recommend a full read if you have a chance,

    ...A major, potentially historic winter storm is likely across the
    area Tuesday through Tuesday night...

    Overview:

    Confidence has increased in a major to historic winter storm for the
    forecast area, particularly across the southern half of the area in
    the vicinity of the I-10 corridor Tuesday morning through Tuesday
    evening. Forecast guidance this morning and so far early this
    afternoon continues to favor a corridor of heavier snow nearer the
    coast, with snowfall totals throughout the event on the order of 1
    to 3 inches areawide, locally up to 4 or 5 inches over the southern
    half of the area. Confidence on higher snowfall totals exists across
    the southern half of the forecast area in the vicinity of the I-10
    corridor. This storm has the potential to be historic for portions
    of the forecast area, with Mobile`s 24hr snowfall record being 6"
    set in 1895, and Pensacola`s 24hr snowfall record being 3" set in
    1895.
    • Like 4

    2024-2025 Fall/Winter Mountain Thread

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    Hello all, sounds like it’s been a decent January for you. I really thought this storm would trend north based on history with these systems. Boy was I wrong! I realize there is a dedicated thread for this but I wanted to share this here (mods please feel free to move if needed). Below is part of the MOB AFD from this afternoon. It’s certainly something I never thought I’d see. We are less than a mile from the water so I’m sure we’ll have some mixing issues. Sorry for the long post and the lack of relevance!

    Winter Storm Likely... A potentially significant winter storm is
    expected to affect areas along the northern Gulf Coast on Tuesday.
    At this point, the "dry scenario" is pretty much off the table, and
    with high probabilities suggesting that much of the area will see at
    least 1 to 2 inches of snow, the entire local area is now under a
    Winter Storm Watch from 6am Tuesday morning through 6am Wednesday
    morning. Although there are still some precip-type uncertainties
    along the coast, this will likely be an all-snow event for much of
    the local area. Along the coast, there may be just enough of a warm
    nose around the 850mb level to allow for some sleet pellets to be
    mixed in. Otherwise, looking at temperature profiles prior to the
    onset of precip, the dendritic growth zone looks to become fully
    saturated by around 09z-12z overtop a very dry 0-1km layer. Precip
    should initially start off as virga, or as very light flurries. Over
    the following couple hours, the dry lower levels will begin to
    moisten and cool (due to wet bulbing effects), likely bringing
    surface temperatures/dew points into the 20s. By this point, heavier
    snowfall rates will become realized and due to the colder
    temperatures at the surface, snow will start to accumulate. Looking
    at ensembles, the probability of accumulated snowfall greater than 3
    inches continues to increase in comparison to previous days.
    Probabilities now stand at roughly 40 to 60 percent, which is why we
    are becoming increasingly concerned that this will be a significant
    event for the local area. If snow amounts over three inches actually
    occurred at KMOB, this would place us in the top 5 for historic
    snowfall amounts on record for the site. If three inches of snow
    occurs at KPNS, this would be actually be the highest accumulating
    event since the late 1800s! It should also be noted that
    probabilities have been pushed further to the south over the past
    couple days, with the best probabilities lining up around the I-10
    corridor. Although there could still be some more minor fluctuations
    to where the heaviest snowfall will occur, these trends could lead
    to some major problems along our coastal counties. We urge residents
    and visitors to continue monitoring the forecast closely over the
    next few days and to begin preparing for this event.


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