NavarreDon

000
WTNT65 KNHC 300157
TCUAT5

Hurricane Idalia Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1000 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

...IDALIA FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TONIGHT...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS LIKELY TOMORROW
MORNING WHERE THE CORE OF IDALIA MOVES INLAND...

NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate
that Idalia has strengthened further. Maximum sustained winds have
increased to 110 mph (175 km/h). The minimum pressure based on
dropsonde data from the aircraft has fallen to 960 mb (28.35
inches).

The National Hurricane Center has begun hourly position and
intensity updates on Idalia. The hourly updates will continue as
long as Idalia's eye is easily trackable in ground-based radar data.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.4N 84.6W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM S OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...29 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


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First of a few tornado watches:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0660.html


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The linemen have arrived!!!




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https://x.com/nwstallahassee/status/1696544257451216896?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA


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No expert here but looking at the water vapor, it looks like dry air might still be feeding into the SW side of Idalia?


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Pressure dropping like a rock

1:00 PM CDT Mon Aug 28
Location: 21.2°N 85.1°W
Moving: N at 8 mph
Min pressure: 987 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph


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https://x.com/treycejoneswx/status/1695944488068186158?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA

https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/1695972446049112416?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA


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Dry air to the north still remains upshear of the storm. While this recent pulse is the most impressive we've seen, Idalia hasn't done much to moisten the environment ahead of it, as such this dry air will continue be pushed into and entrained within the circulation. Unlikely that this current convection over the center will maintain itself long enough to facilitate substantial organization before dry air eats away at it a bit.

Looks like St Marks area for landfall, FD was on point about strength errors.


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Levi has a great video up on Tidbits from yesterday. He goes into good detail with info on LL & UL atmosphere conditions that should affect 93L’s development. 6Z GFS looks odd to me but I’m no expert. Definitely have an eye towards this here in Navarre.


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Kinda surprised with the data they didn’t go 40. Dr Knabb said it’s a coin flip & the forecasters decision. Not a big discrepancy though.

Recon enroute now. Curious to see what they find.

Thoughts on 91L?

Edit: up to 50% on the 6/1 8am update.

Was shocked to register 1001.2 imby this morning at 6:30 CDT, accompanied with wind gusts to 50mph+. It blew a portion of fence & gate down on the side of my house!


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Mike Seidel is reporting from Banner Elk on TWC. Just showed a web cam from Highlands and it’s snowing pretty good.


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Lots of love for WNC on the weather channel! Not telling you folks anything you don’t know but low placement & strength are going to be key in this one. Really hard for the models to pinpoint this. Synoptically the far SW Mnts except at high elevations will have boundary layer issues, the escarpment areas do well, the Balsams rake, the French Broad valley snow hole may appear, the Northern Mnts will have great variations but will generally over preform, the Foothills will be very tricky. Will be a exciting and frustrating chase for you guys. All in all a typical southern winter system for WNC!


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Hello mountain/foothill peeps! Just wanted to announce I’m lurking and here for some vicarious living. Definitely have an eyebrow raised for this event. Lot’s of ifs left to iron out and definitely some bust potential but, the event has me watching. Good luck to all!!!


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Hmmm….gotta be really close to hurricane Nicole. Maybe 70mph.



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Missfired into the seasonal thread. Shear vector is pivoting easterly. New strong convection should now wrap the LLC. At any rate, BOOOM!!!

000
WTNT43 KNHC 071455
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Julia Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
1100 AM EDT Fri Oct 07 2022

Earlier this morning, a concentrated burst of deep convection with
a high density of lightning developed near the center of the
cyclone while it was over the Guajira Peninsula, and microwave
imagery shows that convective banding has increased somewhat over
the adjacent waters. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
currently investigating the system so far has found maximum 925-mb
flight-level winds of 47 kt and SFMR surface winds of 34 kt, and on
that basis, the depression is upgraded to a 35-kt tropical storm.

Based on the latest aircraft fix, Julia is moving a bit faster
toward the west than expected with an initial motion of 280/16 kt.
A strong east-northeast to west-southwest oriented ridge which
stretches into the southern Gulf of Mexico should keep Julia on a
quick westward path during the next 48 hours. Since the track
guidance has sped up a bit over the past few forecast cycles, the
official forecast now brings Julia to the coast of Nicaragua by
Sunday morning, which is a little sooner than was previously
forecast. After landfall, the track guidance currently indicates
that Julia and its remnants should remain over Central America and
southern Mexico through Tuesday.

Stiff north-northwesterly shear (15-20 kt) is affecting Julia, and
that can be seen in the suppression of the northern edge of the
recent convective burst. Shear diagnostics suggest that this shear
should abate soon, and Julia should commence a steady strengthening
trend during the next two days while it crosses the southwestern
Caribbean Sea. Julia is forecast to become a hurricane by Saturday
evening, and the forecast peak intensity at the time of landfall in
Nicaragua is unchanged from the previous advisory. The official
forecast at that time is a bit above HCCA and the IVCN consensus
aids, but it's still below SHIPS and LGEM guidance. The NHC
forecast shows 72- and 96-hour remnant low points to indicate the
expected track over Central America, but it is highly likely that
the center will have dissipated by those times.


Key Messages:

1. Julia is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane by Saturday
evening while it moves over the southwestern Caribbean Sea, and a
Hurricane Warning is now in effect for San Andres, Providencia, and
Santa Catalina Islands. A Hurricane Watch is also now in effect for
much of the Nicaragua coast. Hurricane-force winds and a dangerous
storm surge are expected in areas where the core of the system
crosses the islands and moves onshore.

2. The risk of flash flooding continues today over portions of the
Guajira Peninsula. The potential for life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides is expected to spread to portions of Central America
this weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 12.7N 73.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 13.0N 75.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 13.2N 78.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 13.1N 81.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 13.1N 83.6W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
60H 10/0000Z 13.6N 85.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 10/1200Z 14.5N 88.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 11/1200Z 16.2N 93.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


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This should be Julia on the next advisory package. Very intense hot tower going up right adjacent to the center that looks to be a formative eastern eyeband. You can make the outline based on GLM lightning data, which is pretty neat. This thing is about to go off.

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1150 AM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022

Special Tropical Weather Outlook to update discussion of the
tropical wave east of the Windward Islands

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:


East of the Windward Islands:
Updated: Visible satellite images and recent satellite-derived
wind data suggest that a broad low-level circulation could be
forming in association with the tropical wave located a few hundred
miles east of the southern Windward Islands. Although the wave
is currently being affected by strong upper-level winds, conditions
could become more conducive for a tropical depression to form while
moving westward at about 15 mph, crossing the Windward Islands
tonight and early Wednesday. Conditions appear to become more
conducive for development later this week when the system reaches
the central and western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected over portions of
the Windward Islands tonight and Wednesday. Interests in the
Windward Islands, the ABC Islands, and the northern coast of
Venezuela should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to
investigate this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg


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Now I'll look at how these models did for the SC landfall for Ian by looking at the 9/26 12Z through 9/30 0Z runs: 
* = goes offshore FL
12Z 9/26:
CMC just E of Columbus, GA
GFS Albany, GA
Euro Columbus, GA
Icon SE GA
*UKMET CHS
0Z 9/27:
CMC 100 miles NW of Gainesville, FL
GFS Gainesville, FL
Euro: JAX
*ICON: SAV
*UKMET: CHS
12Z 9/27:
CMC just SW of JAX
GFS JAX
*Euro just S of SAV
*iCON Beaufort
*UKMET CHS
0Z 9/28:
CMC JAX
*GFS HHI
*Euro HHI
*ICON CHS
*UKMET 20 mi NE of CHS
12Z 9/28:
*CMC Beaufort
*GFS HHI
*Euro HHI
*ICON CHS
*UKMET just SW of MB
0Z 9/29:
*CMC CHS
*GFS CHS
*Euro Beaufort
*ICON Beaufort
*UKMET G'town
12Z 9/29:
*CMC G'town
*GFS G'town
*Euro CHS
*ICON CHS
*UKMET 25 mi NE of G'town
0Z 9/30:
*CMC MB
*GFS G'town
*Euro CHS
*ICON CHS
*UKMET G'town

 Based on the above, I'm giving these grades for the four days of runs preceding the SC Ian landfall:
CMC D
GFS C-
Euro C-
ICON B
UKMET A

Back to lemon from orange.




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