NavarreDon

Bertha might look the best I’ve seen her yet! Maybe a center reformation nearer the convection?

We almost certainly had sustained winds pushing 40 with higher gusts between 2 & 3 this afternoon in FWB. Very little rain as expected on the N side due to the shear. I will say I was taken back by the wind speed. Things are calming rapidly now as expected. NHC did well extending the TS warning eastward earlier today.


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OBS from Fort Walton Beach, sustained winds of 25 mph with some higher gusts. Spotty bands of light precip. Typical set up as to when the bands move thru it drags the wind down to the surface with it.


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From a satellite protestation, I agree w/ the NHC upgrade to TS at 00z, sheared as it may be. 

Look at the last VIS, it seems one LLCC is moving farther away from the convection to the N, and it looks like there may be another LLCC to its WSW that is drifting SSW.  This is common for broad, nascent TCs -- more than one LLCC.

For a sheared system, I am surprised the convection on the downshear side is not more intense.  It has struggled to get to -75 C for cloud tops.  Often, sheared TCs have much colder convective tops (
Not the best looking TC on sat or radar, but they come in all sorts of types.  A Spectrum, not one-size-fits-all!
Such a formatio outside the MDR/deep tropics) is consisten for a strong El Nino year.

NHC agrees, we have TS Bertha.


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Pretty close to TS status if not already there. 

Just had the first precip from a band storm here in Fort Walton Beach. It lasted literally a minute but, the rain rate was extreme.


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We have orange,

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Northern Gulf of America and near Florida (AL91):
Satellite images and surface observations indicate that a broad
surface low is forming over the eastern Gulf of America. However,
the associated winds remain light, and the showers and thunderstorms
are still disorganized. Gradual development of this system is
possible, and it could become a tropical depression while it moves
slowly northward or north-northwestward during the next few days.
Interests along the Florida Gulf coast, southern Alabama, and
southwestern Georgia should monitor the progress of this system as
it is expected to bring heavy rain to portions of that region during
the next several days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
is scheduled to investigate the system on Sunday, if needed.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.


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Hey Don. Sitting at not quite 6.5 inches. Not booming like some, but a steady increase. 

I thought I was done a long time ago, but it has just kept snowing.  Tremendous snow! 

Great pics & OBS folks! Keep them coming. Sounds like a classic overachiever.


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Good luck folks, I will be rooting for all of you to cash!


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More phasing means a stronger cyclone, the stronger the cyclone, the more latitude it gains to move poleward. It’s also plowing into an increasingly transient high. A big thing that’s changed the past few days is that our high isn’t as “locked in” as we thought. It’s scooting into a less and less favorable position as the storm progresses.

I’m not sure that run of the GFS is accurate with the track of the low. It’s moving the HP kinda strangely. I think based on history and synoptics the low track may be a bit further south before making the turn. My guess (only a guess) is that for the Mnts. there is a bit more snow & a bit less sleet with the system. Of course the warm nose will have its say in this.


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Morning folks, just wanted to let you know I’m watching from afar. Everything that a typical big Southern snow entails is in play here. Good, bad, and ugly as seen in the models. Lots of good advice on living and dying with every model run in this current part of the thread. The chase is so much of the fun, don’t let it consume you. I’ll give some thoughts a bit later as things come into better focus. Enjoy the ride as this could be a really fun one!


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Congrats fellas!!! I’m enjoying living vicariously through your posts & especially pics. Keep em coming!!!


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The Water Vapor RGB paints an interesting picture! Maybe a name change from Melissa to the Energizer Bunny is in order?


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Late to this one & not sure if this has been posted….but if you’re on X this is just a jaw dropping thread!!!

https://x.com/flynonymouswx/status/1982911146266075605?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA


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Don, I have a special place in my heart for the Gulf Coast. I was stationed at NAS Pensacola, and spent some time at the NCBC Gulfport and New Orleans. Great people, great region! I could not be happier for you folks.

https://x.com/nwsmobile/status/1882145805613838512?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA


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https://x.com/iembot_mob/status/1882022996195389884?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA


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Navarre FL 7.75” for a final tally. 16 degrees for the low this morning. Milton FL 20 miles north of me shattered the all time Florida record for snow with 8.8”. It’s been an event that I can’t wrap my head around!






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Good morning from the Panhandle of Florida Mnt & Foothill Peeps, we ended the event with 7.75” of snow & some drifts upwards of 16”. It’s currently 16 degrees. This has truly been a historic storm down this way. Records have been shattered from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Thank you for letting me share my excitement in your thread!!!







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Up to an astounding 7” here in Navarre & still snowing!!! Finding it hard to wrap my head around it.





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Last pics before dark of what has been one of the most surreal snow days of my life! 24 degrees and still snowing!



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