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NavarreDon

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  1. 000
    WTNT65 KNHC 300157
    TCUAT5

    Hurricane Idalia Tropical Cyclone Update
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
    1000 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

    ...IDALIA FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TONIGHT...
    ...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS LIKELY TOMORROW
    MORNING WHERE THE CORE OF IDALIA MOVES INLAND...

    NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate
    that Idalia has strengthened further. Maximum sustained winds have
    increased to 110 mph (175 km/h). The minimum pressure based on
    dropsonde data from the aircraft has fallen to 960 mb (28.35
    inches).

    The National Hurricane Center has begun hourly position and
    intensity updates on Idalia. The hourly updates will continue as
    long as Idalia's eye is easily trackable in ground-based radar data.

    SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...27.4N 84.6W
    ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
    ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM S OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...29 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


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  2. Dry air to the north still remains upshear of the storm. While this recent pulse is the most impressive we've seen, Idalia hasn't done much to moisten the environment ahead of it, as such this dry air will continue be pushed into and entrained within the circulation. Unlikely that this current convection over the center will maintain itself long enough to facilitate substantial organization before dry air eats away at it a bit.

    Dr. Cowan’s video has some great info on this!




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  3. Levi has a great video up on Tidbits from yesterday. He goes into good detail with info on LL & UL atmosphere conditions that should affect 93L’s development. 6Z GFS looks odd to me but I’m no expert. Definitely have an eye towards this here in Navarre.


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    • Thanks 1
  4. Lots of love for WNC on the weather channel! Not telling you folks anything you don’t know but low placement & strength are going to be key in this one. Really hard for the models to pinpoint this. Synoptically the far SW Mnts except at high elevations will have boundary layer issues, the escarpment areas do well, the Balsams rake, the French Broad valley snow hole may appear, the Northern Mnts will have great variations but will generally over preform, the Foothills will be very tricky. Will be a exciting and frustrating chase for you guys. All in all a typical southern winter system for WNC!


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    • Like 4
  5. 000
    WTNT43 KNHC 071455
    TCDAT3

    Tropical Storm Julia Discussion Number 5
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
    1100 AM EDT Fri Oct 07 2022

    Earlier this morning, a concentrated burst of deep convection with
    a high density of lightning developed near the center of the
    cyclone while it was over the Guajira Peninsula, and microwave
    imagery shows that convective banding has increased somewhat over
    the adjacent waters. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
    currently investigating the system so far has found maximum 925-mb
    flight-level winds of 47 kt and SFMR surface winds of 34 kt, and on
    that basis, the depression is upgraded to a 35-kt tropical storm.

    Based on the latest aircraft fix, Julia is moving a bit faster
    toward the west than expected with an initial motion of 280/16 kt.
    A strong east-northeast to west-southwest oriented ridge which
    stretches into the southern Gulf of Mexico should keep Julia on a
    quick westward path during the next 48 hours. Since the track
    guidance has sped up a bit over the past few forecast cycles, the
    official forecast now brings Julia to the coast of Nicaragua by
    Sunday morning, which is a little sooner than was previously
    forecast. After landfall, the track guidance currently indicates
    that Julia and its remnants should remain over Central America and
    southern Mexico through Tuesday.

    Stiff north-northwesterly shear (15-20 kt) is affecting Julia, and
    that can be seen in the suppression of the northern edge of the
    recent convective burst. Shear diagnostics suggest that this shear
    should abate soon, and Julia should commence a steady strengthening
    trend during the next two days while it crosses the southwestern
    Caribbean Sea. Julia is forecast to become a hurricane by Saturday
    evening, and the forecast peak intensity at the time of landfall in
    Nicaragua is unchanged from the previous advisory. The official
    forecast at that time is a bit above HCCA and the IVCN consensus
    aids, but it's still below SHIPS and LGEM guidance. The NHC
    forecast shows 72- and 96-hour remnant low points to indicate the
    expected track over Central America, but it is highly likely that
    the center will have dissipated by those times.


    Key Messages:

    1. Julia is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane by Saturday
    evening while it moves over the southwestern Caribbean Sea, and a
    Hurricane Warning is now in effect for San Andres, Providencia, and
    Santa Catalina Islands. A Hurricane Watch is also now in effect for
    much of the Nicaragua coast. Hurricane-force winds and a dangerous
    storm surge are expected in areas where the core of the system
    crosses the islands and moves onshore.

    2. The risk of flash flooding continues today over portions of the
    Guajira Peninsula. The potential for life-threatening flash flooding
    and mudslides is expected to spread to portions of Central America
    this weekend.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 07/1500Z 12.7N 73.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
    12H 08/0000Z 13.0N 75.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
    24H 08/1200Z 13.2N 78.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
    36H 09/0000Z 13.1N 81.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
    48H 09/1200Z 13.1N 83.6W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
    60H 10/0000Z 13.6N 85.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
    72H 10/1200Z 14.5N 88.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
    96H 11/1200Z 16.2N 93.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
    120H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

    $$
    Forecaster Berg


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    • Like 1
  6. Special Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1150 AM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022

    Special Tropical Weather Outlook to update discussion of the
    tropical wave east of the Windward Islands

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:


    East of the Windward Islands:
    Updated: Visible satellite images and recent satellite-derived
    wind data suggest that a broad low-level circulation could be
    forming in association with the tropical wave located a few hundred
    miles east of the southern Windward Islands. Although the wave
    is currently being affected by strong upper-level winds, conditions
    could become more conducive for a tropical depression to form while
    moving westward at about 15 mph, crossing the Windward Islands
    tonight and early Wednesday. Conditions appear to become more
    conducive for development later this week when the system reaches
    the central and western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development,
    locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected over portions of
    the Windward Islands tonight and Wednesday. Interests in the
    Windward Islands, the ABC Islands, and the northern coast of
    Venezuela should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force
    Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to
    investigate this system.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

    $$
    Forecaster Berg


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  7. Now I'll look at how these models did for the SC landfall for Ian by looking at the 9/26 12Z through 9/30 0Z runs: 
    * = goes offshore FL
    12Z 9/26:
    CMC just E of Columbus, GA
    GFS Albany, GA
    Euro Columbus, GA
    Icon SE GA
    *UKMET CHS
    0Z 9/27:
    CMC 100 miles NW of Gainesville, FL
    GFS Gainesville, FL
    Euro: JAX
    *ICON: SAV
    *UKMET: CHS
    12Z 9/27:
    CMC just SW of JAX
    GFS JAX
    *Euro just S of SAV
    *iCON Beaufort
    *UKMET CHS
    0Z 9/28:
    CMC JAX
    *GFS HHI
    *Euro HHI
    *ICON CHS
    *UKMET 20 mi NE of CHS
    12Z 9/28:
    *CMC Beaufort
    *GFS HHI
    *Euro HHI
    *ICON CHS
    *UKMET just SW of MB
    0Z 9/29:
    *CMC CHS
    *GFS CHS
    *Euro Beaufort
    *ICON Beaufort
    *UKMET G'town
    12Z 9/29:
    *CMC G'town
    *GFS G'town
    *Euro CHS
    *ICON CHS
    *UKMET 25 mi NE of G'town
    0Z 9/30:
    *CMC MB
    *GFS G'town
    *Euro CHS
    *ICON CHS
    *UKMET G'town

     Based on the above, I'm giving these grades for the four days of runs preceding the SC Ian landfall:
    CMC D
    GFS C-
    Euro C-
    ICON B
    UKMET A


    Thank you for taking the time to post all this. I think most of us don’t look at the UKMET for tropical guidance, the moral of the story is don’t discount any model when forecasting.

    Side note: I remember well people saying the HWRF was out to lunch for its pressure falls during Michael.


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