NavarreDon

Nice, Don!!! Hammer time. I love it!! Get some pics.

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Light snow has commenced in Navarre FL!!!


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Sorry for barging in on this thread but you guys are my snow homies! Consider me stunned!

https://x.com/nwsmobile/status/1881744640015311354?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA


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Temp 31 dew point 10, here at the beach in the FL Panhandle. 2”-5” is the forecast. Find it hard to believe but, we shall see!


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Hurricane Hunter is sampling out in the gulf to aid the models with this system.


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[mention=2594]NavarreDon[/mention]  If I was a MET I would have added another paragraph at the end of that statement.  Something like:
 Please keep in mind that we are talking about a storm that will most likely give us 3” of snow with some pockets of 6” possible. Roofs are not going to collapse and there will be no avalanches sweeping us into the Gulf.  As mentioned above it has not snowed this much in this area in over 100 years.   Layer up with sweaters and jackets, walk outside and enjoy something you will most likely never see again in your lifetime. Have a snowball fight, build a snowman, just take a walk and enjoy the sights with family and friends.

Hahahahahahahaha!!! A+!

I feel like I’ve entered some alternate reality and I’m back living off of New Stock Rd in N Asheville! Here is my pinpoint NWS forecast hot off the presses….

Tonight
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Wind chill values between 15 and 20. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Tuesday
Snow, mainly after noon. High near 35. Wind chill values between 15 and 25. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Tuesday Night
Snow, mainly before midnight. Low around 21. Wind chill values between 10 and 15. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.


Here is a snippet of the MOB AFD, I recommend a full read if you have a chance,

...A major, potentially historic winter storm is likely across the
area Tuesday through Tuesday night...

Overview:

Confidence has increased in a major to historic winter storm for the
forecast area, particularly across the southern half of the area in
the vicinity of the I-10 corridor Tuesday morning through Tuesday
evening. Forecast guidance this morning and so far early this
afternoon continues to favor a corridor of heavier snow nearer the
coast, with snowfall totals throughout the event on the order of 1
to 3 inches areawide, locally up to 4 or 5 inches over the southern
half of the area. Confidence on higher snowfall totals exists across
the southern half of the forecast area in the vicinity of the I-10
corridor. This storm has the potential to be historic for portions
of the forecast area, with Mobile`s 24hr snowfall record being 6"
set in 1895, and Pensacola`s 24hr snowfall record being 3" set in
1895.

Hello all, sounds like it’s been a decent January for you. I really thought this storm would trend north based on history with these systems. Boy was I wrong! I realize there is a dedicated thread for this but I wanted to share this here (mods please feel free to move if needed). Below is part of the MOB AFD from this afternoon. It’s certainly something I never thought I’d see. We are less than a mile from the water so I’m sure we’ll have some mixing issues. Sorry for the long post and the lack of relevance!

Winter Storm Likely... A potentially significant winter storm is
expected to affect areas along the northern Gulf Coast on Tuesday.
At this point, the "dry scenario" is pretty much off the table, and
with high probabilities suggesting that much of the area will see at
least 1 to 2 inches of snow, the entire local area is now under a
Winter Storm Watch from 6am Tuesday morning through 6am Wednesday
morning. Although there are still some precip-type uncertainties
along the coast, this will likely be an all-snow event for much of
the local area. Along the coast, there may be just enough of a warm
nose around the 850mb level to allow for some sleet pellets to be
mixed in. Otherwise, looking at temperature profiles prior to the
onset of precip, the dendritic growth zone looks to become fully
saturated by around 09z-12z overtop a very dry 0-1km layer. Precip
should initially start off as virga, or as very light flurries. Over
the following couple hours, the dry lower levels will begin to
moisten and cool (due to wet bulbing effects), likely bringing
surface temperatures/dew points into the 20s. By this point, heavier
snowfall rates will become realized and due to the colder
temperatures at the surface, snow will start to accumulate. Looking
at ensembles, the probability of accumulated snowfall greater than 3
inches continues to increase in comparison to previous days.
Probabilities now stand at roughly 40 to 60 percent, which is why we
are becoming increasingly concerned that this will be a significant
event for the local area. If snow amounts over three inches actually
occurred at KMOB, this would place us in the top 5 for historic
snowfall amounts on record for the site. If three inches of snow
occurs at KPNS, this would be actually be the highest accumulating
event since the late 1800s! It should also be noted that
probabilities have been pushed further to the south over the past
couple days, with the best probabilities lining up around the I-10
corridor. Although there could still be some more minor fluctuations
to where the heaviest snowfall will occur, these trends could lead
to some major problems along our coastal counties. We urge residents
and visitors to continue monitoring the forecast closely over the
next few days and to begin preparing for this event.


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Wowsers!!! If only….




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Several things to consider, a week or so out, synoptics, history, & so on. With all that being said. The 6Z GFS is about as good as it gets for a Mnt paste bomb. If the model holds on to this, look for it to tic north as time goes on.


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Had a great moonlit hike with Met this evening on the bald! Lots of knee-deep drifts along the trail.

Sent from my SM-S908U using Tapatalk

One of the best pics I’ve ever seen!


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12Z Euro is the stuff dreams are made of!!!


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Happy for all who cashed & especially those who over preformed! I’m really liking the pattern for the next couple weeks so, I might pop in or stick around.


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https://x.com/efisherwx/status/1878095662014747055?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA


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I'll wait until tomorrow morning to post my assessment but it seems like I was wrong about the NAM. I'll admit that I should have looked at it harder.  I'm still happy with today though. 

I’m really surprised also, it may end up with the N Mnts being the winners from this one. I certainly have some egg on my face at this point.


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New Mesoscale Discussion....

Here is the long version, sorry for the length!:

Mesoscale Discussion 0032
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0330 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2025

Areas affected...northern Georgia...eastern Tennessee...far western South Carolina...western North Carolina

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation

Valid 102130Z - 110030Z

SUMMARY...Areas of moderate to heavy snowfall along the high terrain and mixed precipitation likely in the afternoon/evening across portions of east TN/north GA and western SC/NC.

DISCUSSION...A broad region of heavy precipitation continues to shift northward across northern Alabama into eastern Tennessee/northern Georgia beneath enhanced mid-level flow and forcing from an upper-level trough. This precipitation shield will continue to lift north and eastward this evening, bringing an increase in the precipitation rates across the region, extending into western North Carolina through time. Moderate to heavy snowfall will be possible (with occasional 1" hr rates) across the southern Appalachian Mountains in eastern Tennessee. Further south across northern Georgia into the western Carolinas, profiles will continue to support additional accumulations of freezing rain. NAM/RAP sounding analysis across northern Georgia into South Carolina show a warm nose at 850 mb with surface observations indicating temperatures remain in the upper 20s to 30s. Occasionally, mixed precipitation/sleet will be possible.


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2.5” is the report from my brother’s hood up the Mnt outside of Glenville.




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Congrats folks! Gonna need lots of pics!!!


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GSP all in on the NAM. Also believe the precip minimum in the Aville valley. They could be right. Multiple models not showing a significant precip minimum. That minimum is modeled on more precip events than I care to remember. It has also been incorrect many times and Aville and Buncombe has over performed. We shall see. Let's just start with that 1st flake and go from there. 
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=GSP&issuedby=GSP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Ahh the memories!!! Which way will the pendulum swing? Hoping it’s towards the over performing end for you Jason, you’ve paid many a dues!


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Thermal Profiles look a bit better than forecasted out west. This could bode well for some of you guys.


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https://x.com/nwsgsp/status/1877402548304257266?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA


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Temps are razor thin on the NAM 3km.  IMO going to take more than 500-750ft in the atmosphere of temps above freezing to full melt, especially with how cold the surface is.  Thinking the NAM may have qpf close, but thinking temps might be causing the model to believe its sleet, but in reality it will fall as heavy snow with big flakes that stick together.  Just my opinion, hope everyone is doing well!

+1 on this, really good analysis!


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Evening all! Been busy all day but wanted to say a couple things from afar. Try not to be guilty of model hugging. Use historical data as well. There a so many variables in a system like this one. Even Mets are unsure what will happen. Personally using the above I think the storm will meet or exceed expectations for the most part in the Mnts. Enjoy the next 36 hours as much as you can because the chase is what we all live for. Good luck to all of you!!!


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Great pics up above this post as well as below!

More good news from MOB’s afternoon AFD + my forecast for Friday below

AFD snippet:

Plenty of moisture and forcing will
allow for precip chances to increase rapidly throughout the
period. With no instability in place, expecting this event to
primarily be a widespread stratiform precip shield as opposed to
convection.

Friday forecast:

A chance of rain before 9am, then showers, mainly after noon. The rain could be heavy at times. High near 63. East wind 10 to 15 mph becoming south in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.


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Haha! Thanks but I’m still in SC. Now I’m between Seneca and Walhalla. Above 85 and just above hwy 11 sitting right at 1000’-1100’ ft elevation  

I used to travel Hwy 28 thru that area back in the day. That’s a nice spot to be in, thinking you might escape the mixing zone but it’ll be close.


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My first Miller A here in the foothills  

Not sure of your location and elevation as I don’t follow the board like I used to (congrats on the move from SC!). I think the warm nose may come into play in some of the foothills, that being said I’d bet you get your wish of snowballs & sledding. Grab some popcorn and enjoy the show!!!


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