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NavarreDon

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    Major Hurricane Ida

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    Philippe Papin

    @pppapin

    Unfortunately trends on KLIX radar do *not* suggest #Ida is leveling off. Instead the eyewall has become more symmetric w/ the west side becoming more solid. Earlier attempt at a “moat” around the eyewall also looks to have filled back in.

    Major Hurricane Ida

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted 

    SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 89.6W
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES

    Major Hurricane Ida

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    Here is part of MOB’s historical disco on Opal.


    On the morning of October 2nd, Opal intensified to a hurricane while centered 150
    miles west of Merida, Mexico. By this time, Opal began to drift north as a large upper
    level trough moved across the central United States. Opal then accelerated to the
    north northeast on October 3rd and 4th and underwent a period of rapid intensification
    - strengthening into a strong Category 4 hurricane early on October 4th. The minimum
    central pressure of 916 mb with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph occurred when
    the hurricane was centered about 290 miles south southwest of Pensacola, FL around
    5am on October 4th.

    Rapid Intensification and Evacuations

    Anybody living along the northern Gulf Coast in 1995 will tell you they heard some unsettling news when they woke up the morning of October 4th. Gulf coast residents went to bed on October 3rd knowing that Opal was a Category 2 storm with maximum winds of 100 mph. By 4am the next morning, the winds had increased to 135 mph. By 10am, Opal had maximum sustained winds of an alarming 150 mph, which is just below Category 5 intensity. Upon learning this, thousands of residents decided to evacuate at the last minute, which resulted in grid lock on many major highways, including Interstate 65. Many of these residents ended up seeking refuge in local shelters as Opal closed in on the western Florida Panhandle.

    bf36376a6ab4895d6f9447547abce5e8.jpg




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    • Thanks 1

    Major Hurricane Ida

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    NOAA HH dropped a dropsonde from around 400 millibars (24,000 feet ASL) and are now descending back to 700 millibars while circling. Killing time while the 'cane moves over the island? One of the weirder flights I've seen. 

    The status on Tropical Tidbits says “finished” for the mission. Very confusing!


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    Major Hurricane Ida

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    Let’s start using the storm banter thread for these cute quips. 

    Folks, you got a mod here telling you about the banter thread. Heed his subtle warning and please take the nonsense to the banter thread. Let’s reserve this thread for serious Ida discussion.


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    • Like 5
    • Thanks 5
    • Weenie 2

    Major Hurricane Ida

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    An excellent example of why ATCF should not be used over an official advisory. Though Best Track had a TD9 as a TS, recon was not convincing enough for the NHC. Therefore, they did not upgrade the depression for the 5PM EDT advisory package.

    The FD did say recon hadn’t been thru the east side. This leaves the door open for a special update if they find what they need, imo.


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    Major Hurricane Ida

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    Not pointing this at anyone directly but, not sure how we can predict landfall from a system without a closed circulation. History tells us that this is a crapshoot at best. Using Grace as an example, before formation models trended from the FL big bend W to the MS/AL border. After formation they trended back E thru AL then into the FL Panhandle. The only thing that’s relatively sure now is a more N formation should equal a more E track & a more S formation should equal a more W track. At this point ,In the USA, people from Brownsville to at least the W FL Panhandle should have a eye raised for 99L.


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    • Like 4

    Tropical Storm Fred

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    I’ve got friends  in Grayton  Beach and in laws at  Seagrove  and Grayton had dramatic picture of leading edge.
    Where are those two spots in relation to you and projected landfall?
    Thanks 

    I’m in between Pensacola & Fort Walton Beach. Grayton & Seagrove are on 30A in Walton county. They are about halfway between me and the projected landfall area.


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    Tropical Storm Fred

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    Under a warning now.
    A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the coast of theFlorida Panhandle from Indian Pass to Steinhatchee River.A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the coast of theFlorida Panhandle from Navarre to the Wakulla/Jefferson County line.


    A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
    * Coast of the Florida Panhandle from Navarre to the Wakulla/
    Jefferson County line.

    A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
    * Coast of the Florida Panhandle from the Alabama/Florida border to
    Navarre


    The wording is confusing it should start with Mary Esther FL for the warning


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    • Confused 1

    Tropical Storm Fred

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    Here we go…..

    A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the coast of the
    Florida Panhandle from Navarre to the Wakulla/Jefferson County line.


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    Just an update TS warnings start at the Santa Rosa/Okaloosa county line. Navarre is actually under a TS Watch.


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    • Like 1
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