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NavarreDon

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Posts posted by NavarreDon

    2021-2022 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    From a purely weather vs snow perspective. I find the verbiage in this portion of the GSP disco so cool! Tons going on in the atmosphere in the next 18 hours.

    Minor adjustments will be made to the Winter Storm Warnings and
    Advisories with the high elevation warning expanded down into
    Macon and the Advisories expanded across the northern NC foothills.
    Uncertainty over accumulations remains very high given the present
    very warm profiles, the warm ground, and the speed of the system
    overnight through Monday morning. However, the forcing is tremendous
    tonight as upper jetlet divergence ahead of the approaching wave
    sharpens up quickly this evening. A mid-level deformation zone will
    cross the region mainly from 08Z to 12Z and bring locally very heavy
    snow rates, at least in the places cold enough for snow. Saturated
    geopotential vorticity fields also indicate some thundersnow
    could be possible in the heaviest rates late tonight. Amounts
    have been boosted to 10 to 12 inches in the highest peaks of the
    Smokies. The snow will end as NW upslope snowfall in the TN border
    counties Monday, tapering off in the afternoon. Black ice will be
    a concern beyond the Warning/Advisory period.


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    • Like 3

    2021-2022 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    GFS has always been consistent with this storm. Im not so sure about those totals but still this will be a great storm if most everyone sees 4-8 inches.

    A very veteran group in here but we all get excited and tend to fall all over every model run (I know I was guilty of it when I lived in Weaverville!). 85’s post is spot on & very realistic. Temper your expectations to avoid disappointment.


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    • Like 2

    2021-2022 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    GSP latest map and grid forecast shows Asheville at less than an inch. I never understand what has them forecasting way less than every single model. But they are the experts and are right more than they are not. 

    I’m at work And can’t look, is that for the airport or proper? What does your pinpoint forecast call for Jason? Earlier today my old one for Newstock Rd area was saying 3-5”. I think this at a minimum will hold true for north of proper.


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    2021-2022 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    Good morning & HNY folks, this system has some potential for sure! Lots of variables in play here. Low placement & path, amount of tilt, how quickly temps crash, & dynamics. Things are looking good for a lot of you. I certainly wouldn’t be shocked to see someone report thunder snow. I liked the fact that the models aren’t showing the infamous FBV dry slot. Elevational areas look golden. N Buncombe up through Burnsville, Boone, W Jefferson look prime to me. Depending on low track portions of the Foothills might surprise. I expect someone will report 10” if this maintains. Remember it’s weather and models can only do so much. Be ready for shifts both good & bad. Good luck to all of you and I’ll be living vicariously thru OBS, pics, & vids!


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    • Like 4

    Major Hurricane Ida

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    Philippe Papin

    @pppapin

    Unfortunately trends on KLIX radar do *not* suggest #Ida is leveling off. Instead the eyewall has become more symmetric w/ the west side becoming more solid. Earlier attempt at a “moat” around the eyewall also looks to have filled back in.

    Major Hurricane Ida

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted 

    SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 89.6W
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES

    Major Hurricane Ida

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    Here is part of MOB’s historical disco on Opal.


    On the morning of October 2nd, Opal intensified to a hurricane while centered 150
    miles west of Merida, Mexico. By this time, Opal began to drift north as a large upper
    level trough moved across the central United States. Opal then accelerated to the
    north northeast on October 3rd and 4th and underwent a period of rapid intensification
    - strengthening into a strong Category 4 hurricane early on October 4th. The minimum
    central pressure of 916 mb with maximum sustained winds of 150 mph occurred when
    the hurricane was centered about 290 miles south southwest of Pensacola, FL around
    5am on October 4th.

    Rapid Intensification and Evacuations

    Anybody living along the northern Gulf Coast in 1995 will tell you they heard some unsettling news when they woke up the morning of October 4th. Gulf coast residents went to bed on October 3rd knowing that Opal was a Category 2 storm with maximum winds of 100 mph. By 4am the next morning, the winds had increased to 135 mph. By 10am, Opal had maximum sustained winds of an alarming 150 mph, which is just below Category 5 intensity. Upon learning this, thousands of residents decided to evacuate at the last minute, which resulted in grid lock on many major highways, including Interstate 65. Many of these residents ended up seeking refuge in local shelters as Opal closed in on the western Florida Panhandle.

    bf36376a6ab4895d6f9447547abce5e8.jpg




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    • Thanks 1

    Major Hurricane Ida

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    NOAA HH dropped a dropsonde from around 400 millibars (24,000 feet ASL) and are now descending back to 700 millibars while circling. Killing time while the 'cane moves over the island? One of the weirder flights I've seen. 

    The status on Tropical Tidbits says “finished” for the mission. Very confusing!


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    Major Hurricane Ida

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    Let’s start using the storm banter thread for these cute quips. 

    Folks, you got a mod here telling you about the banter thread. Heed his subtle warning and please take the nonsense to the banter thread. Let’s reserve this thread for serious Ida discussion.


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    • Like 5
    • Thanks 5
    • Weenie 2

    Major Hurricane Ida

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    An excellent example of why ATCF should not be used over an official advisory. Though Best Track had a TD9 as a TS, recon was not convincing enough for the NHC. Therefore, they did not upgrade the depression for the 5PM EDT advisory package.

    The FD did say recon hadn’t been thru the east side. This leaves the door open for a special update if they find what they need, imo.


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    Major Hurricane Ida

    in Tropical Headquarters

    Posted

    Not pointing this at anyone directly but, not sure how we can predict landfall from a system without a closed circulation. History tells us that this is a crapshoot at best. Using Grace as an example, before formation models trended from the FL big bend W to the MS/AL border. After formation they trended back E thru AL then into the FL Panhandle. The only thing that’s relatively sure now is a more N formation should equal a more E track & a more S formation should equal a more W track. At this point ,In the USA, people from Brownsville to at least the W FL Panhandle should have a eye raised for 99L.


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    • Like 4
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