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Posts posted by NavarreDon

  1. Sometimes it’s a good idea to look at things downstream. This is part of MOB’s morning disco. I’d recommend reading the rest as they’re a damn good crew. This is what you want to see for a bigger Mnt/FH snow!

    .NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Sunday/...An upper level shortwave
    trough dives south over the Plains tonight, organizing into a
    closed low as it moves. The upper low moves east over the Lower
    Mississippi River Valley to over the forecast area by Sunday night
    as a decreasingly positively tilted system, then increasingly
    negatively tilted as it moves east of the forecast area late
    Saturday night through Sunday. A surface low that has developed
    over Texas this afternoon moves east-southeast along the northern
    Gulf coast to over the forecast area by early Saturday evening. A
    weak warm front organizes along the Gulf coast tonight ahead of
    the approaching surface low, but with relatively weak low level
    southerly flow ahead of approaching system, the front will remain
    along the coast. A strong cold front moves east over the forecast
    area beginning Saturday night, ushering in a colder and drier


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  2. 3 hours ago, Maggie Ace said:

    Good morning folks. It's been enjoyable leading up to the storm. The WPC just updated the Surface Low Track forecast. 


    Boom for you guys! The big boys at WPC put no stock in the quirky NAM runs. that low track is gonna be gold for the Mnts. I wouldn't fly over the cliff because of lower qpf totals in some areas. This tends to happen with models as the event draws near. Often times it's closer to the earlier higher totals. As with every big Mnt snow event the totals will vary wildly. Good luck to all of you!!!

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  3. It’s looking great for almost everyone in the Mnts & Foothills. As for the FBRV snow hole Jason made some great points. I’ve seen it be way overdone by the models with this set up. Not saying it’s not correct but I’m skeptical it will be as dramatic as depicted. As always with SE snowstorms nothing is certain but as far as modeling, setup’s, ect it doesn’t get much better than this!!! Strap in fellas it’s gonna be a wild one.


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  4. By the way, we’re heading to Black Mountain.  For many reasons:
    • Happy wife, happy life.  =)
    • Cousins with whom the kids can play in the snow.
    • (Who am I kidding?  I will also be playing in the snow.)
    • Pretty much guaranteed snow for the duration of the event.
    • 8-inch floor, according to the graphic posted above.
    • Monumental snowstorm experience.
    Let’s do this!  Can’t wait!


    • Thanks 1
  5. This is as aggressive as I've seen GSP in a long time with a watch.

    I’ve never seen them pull the trigger 5 shifts away from an event!!! The wording in the disco suggests at this point it’s not a question of if but how much. They also usually start conservative with totals but not this time!

    Curious to see what Jason Boyer’s tune is after this?

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  6. The only area in the Mnts where their might be any issues would be the extreme SW Mnts. Hayesville, Murphy, Andrews corridor at lower elevations. This area can be susceptible to missing the CAD. Possibly some mixing issues in this locale depending on micro climate, low track, ect. Obviously with varying amounts, the rest of the Mnts show a real possibility of getting clobbered!


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  7. My wife wants to let her mother know as soon as possible.  Probably by tomorrow afternoon we should have it finalized.
    • NW Hickory, approximately one mile from Alexander County line.
    • Between Black Mountain and Swannanoa, near Owen HS.

    Man, that’s a tough one! You could get a great dump at home. The in laws spot is not that prone to dry slotting plus it’s a good spot for some flow snow. I think they will get a big one. As I said either will be a win for you with this system. I’d definitely be gathering info (models, afd’s from all the Offices around you GSP, Blacksburg, Raleigh) and make that final decision as late as possible. Sage advice from Octopus, & go with your gut.

    • Thanks 1
  8. I would love your guys' perspective on this.  Here's my dilemma:
    • There's nothing like seeing it snow/sleet/whatever in your own backyard, and Hickory has a good chance to get walloped.
    • My in-laws have welcomed us to come spend the weekend with them in Black Mountain (due east of Asheville on I-40, just up Old Fort Mountain).
    I think Black Mountain has a much better chance of remaining snow for the entire event (2400 feet elevation), with little chance of mixing in sleet (at least at this point in the forecast).  However, Buncombe County traditionally is the driest county in the state and often has precip minima there compared to surrounding areas.  Ignoring other factors such as my kids playing with cousins in the snow in Black Mountain, which experience would you prefer?
    1. Staying at home and seeing 6+ inches of snow, with an inch or snow of sleet, followed by a deform band with more snow IMBY, OR
    2. Traveling to in-laws and seeing a pure snowstorm with likely 12+ inches of snow on the ground, but they might get downsloped a bit by surrounding mountains.
    As you can probably guess, my wife doesn't even understand why it's a dilemma, and she's like, "Let's go to my parents and have fun with the family there".  But there's something so special about seeing it snow, during the day, all day, below freezing, in your own backyard.  And, I'm a sucker for taking records and measurements IMBY, as you can see from my signature line. 
    What are your thoughts?

    What’s the timeline, when does a decision have to be finalized? If you have time follow the model trends. Depends on what part of Hickory & what part of Black Mountain. I’d wait as long as possible to gather the most info then make the call. The great thing is either way will be a win!

  9. Good morning folks!, this is shaping up to be a nice thump for most of you. Still a ways out but I’m loving the trends for heavy snow even in the foothills. Of course it’s all up in the air because it’s the south. I love living at the beach but not gonna lie, this is one of those times I wish I was in the mix with you all. Just gonna have to settle for the vicariously route with you!


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  10. Morning folks!, I’m checking in with my eyes on the system. I think the 6Z is over doing the ice for most of the mountains . Obviously the escarpment and foothills are susceptible. Lots of time for adjustments to come. Remember not to get to caught up on one model or run. Don’t forget about synoptics when you look at the big picture. Buckle up for a wild couple days…..my favorite part of winter storms!!!


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  11. This is exactly why the mountains have been seeing the models such as the GFS latch onto high totals.  As Forky mentioned this vort is going to be wound up and we will be north of the vort but then we are going to see backside snow along the border to enhance totals also. This is a complex wound up storm for sure. 

    Agreed & whoever gets lucky enough to be popped by the deform band is gonna be in for a treat. I still say don’t sleep on areas in the foothills. If things break right with the low track and strength…..surprise, surprise, surprise!!!

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  12. From a purely weather vs snow perspective. I find the verbiage in this portion of the GSP disco so cool! Tons going on in the atmosphere in the next 18 hours.

    Minor adjustments will be made to the Winter Storm Warnings and
    Advisories with the high elevation warning expanded down into
    Macon and the Advisories expanded across the northern NC foothills.
    Uncertainty over accumulations remains very high given the present
    very warm profiles, the warm ground, and the speed of the system
    overnight through Monday morning. However, the forcing is tremendous
    tonight as upper jetlet divergence ahead of the approaching wave
    sharpens up quickly this evening. A mid-level deformation zone will
    cross the region mainly from 08Z to 12Z and bring locally very heavy
    snow rates, at least in the places cold enough for snow. Saturated
    geopotential vorticity fields also indicate some thundersnow
    could be possible in the heaviest rates late tonight. Amounts
    have been boosted to 10 to 12 inches in the highest peaks of the
    Smokies. The snow will end as NW upslope snowfall in the TN border
    counties Monday, tapering off in the afternoon. Black ice will be
    a concern beyond the Warning/Advisory period.


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  13. GFS has always been consistent with this storm. Im not so sure about those totals but still this will be a great storm if most everyone sees 4-8 inches.

    A very veteran group in here but we all get excited and tend to fall all over every model run (I know I was guilty of it when I lived in Weaverville!). 85’s post is spot on & very realistic. Temper your expectations to avoid disappointment.

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  14. GSP latest map and grid forecast shows Asheville at less than an inch. I never understand what has them forecasting way less than every single model. But they are the experts and are right more than they are not. 

    I’m at work And can’t look, is that for the airport or proper? What does your pinpoint forecast call for Jason? Earlier today my old one for Newstock Rd area was saying 3-5”. I think this at a minimum will hold true for north of proper.

  15. Good morning & HNY folks, this system has some potential for sure! Lots of variables in play here. Low placement & path, amount of tilt, how quickly temps crash, & dynamics. Things are looking good for a lot of you. I certainly wouldn’t be shocked to see someone report thunder snow. I liked the fact that the models aren’t showing the infamous FBV dry slot. Elevational areas look golden. N Buncombe up through Burnsville, Boone, W Jefferson look prime to me. Depending on low track portions of the Foothills might surprise. I expect someone will report 10” if this maintains. Remember it’s weather and models can only do so much. Be ready for shifts both good & bad. Good luck to all of you and I’ll be living vicariously thru OBS, pics, & vids!


    • Like 4
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