NavarreDon

Rare 70-knot lower level jet with sub 990-low and warm front pushing ashore.
Even shy of severe threat, looks like non-storm related straight line winds that could gust over 50 mph.
Storm warnings for 13-15 foot swells.
Basically, a rare, major event for western Florida, among other places. 

I don’t post much anymore except for tropical weather, and Mnt snow but this caught my eye and brought me over here. The Mets at MOB are great with severe weather and I don’t think I’ve seen an AFD like this from them ever! Very rare conditions for these part. Sorry for the long post but here is the disco…

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 413 PM CST Sun Jan 7 2024

Where to begin. Probably with the fact that with the current
trends, we have leaned towards higher confidence in an extremely
high impact event for our area. Very strong winds, potentially
moderate coastal flooding, high marine impacts and the potential
for a significant severe thunderstorm event including damaging
winds and potentially a couple significant (EF-2+) tornadoes.
Honestly when you put all the potential impacts together this
could be one of the more impactful non- tropical systems we ever
had. Take this system seriously!

Synoptic Overview...A rather potent upper low will eject into the
Ohio River valley Monday into Tuesday night. The impressive nature
of this system continues to be represented within ensemble
guidance with 500 Mb heights at a climatological min within the
ECMWF, meaning this is an anomalously deep low. With anomalously
deep lows usually come very strong jet dynamics and right now
looking at a 110 to 120 knot jet streak developing around the base
of the upper low late Monday night into early Tuesday morning.
Little further down a powerful 70 to 80 knot 850 mb jet will
develop over our area during the same time and unfortunately
trends within the higher resolution guidance have even hinted at
increasing to 85+ knots. This is relatively rare territory even in
some of our more impactful events. At the surface, these intense
dynamics will allow for a powerful surface low to deepen into the
upper 980s as it lifts across northeastern Arkansas. Expect rain
to likely begin Monday afternoon as the synoptic warm front lifts
northward and persisting throughout the overnight hours. Rain may
become intermittent for a brief period before the final line of
storms pushes through early Tuesday morning likely clearing out as
we approach the noon Tuesday timeframe. Given how dynamic this
system is we expect a plethora of hazards to come.

Severe...Unfortunately, things trended the wrong way for us
amongst the high resolution guidance and the makings of a
significant severe thunderstorm threat appears on our doorstep. As
mentioned in yesterdays afd, extreme environments tend to end in
extreme results and the expected environment is quickly trending
towards extreme. Going into yesterday the limiting factor was the
instability. As worried, the proximity to rich Gulf Moisture
coupled with the intense low level wind field should have no
issued working instability inland across our area as the marine
boundary lifts northward. All the high resolution guidance has
around 1000 J/KG of MLCape making its way to the highway 84
corridor with some guidance hinting at near 2000 J/KG near the
I-10 corridor and has trended upward with time. Not great Bob,
when that was suppose to be the limiting factor. On top of the
instability the shear will be ludicrous with that 80 knot LLJ. 0-1
KM SRH values in the warm sector are hovering around the 500 to
600 m2/s2 with insane low level curvature and high streamwise
component. It would be immature to not at least mention that
sometimes these shear environments can be too much especially with
lower amounts of instability much like last years; however,
intense jet dynamics in the right entrance region of the upper jet
will likely overcome all of those issues. Expect two rounds of
severe weather to be possible with both capable of significant
severe. The first round is a little more conditional as
instability and synoptic ascent will be more limited compared to
round two. However, this round will be along the lifting marine
boundary around midnight. This will likely involve embedded
supercells lifting with the boundary leading to the potential for
damaging winds and tornadoes. Given the shear environment and the
boundary, a strong tornado cannot be ruled out. Then the real show
arrives shortly after and persists through the overnight in the
form of a rather strong QLCS. This heavily forced squall line will
only intensify as the upper jet overspreads and the LLJ
increases. The combination of strong kinematics and low level
instability with 0-3km cape values likely approaching 100k/kg or
more will support strong vertical stretching in a incredibly rich
vorticity environment. QLCS tornadoes will likely be common with
this line including the potential for a few strong QLCS tornadoes
(EF-2+). Along with the tornadoes, strong damaging winds will also
be likely with wind gusts in excess of 70 mph given 850 and 925
mb winds will already be high. This has the potential to be a
rather intense severe event occurring overnight. Be sure to
continue to stay updated and have multiple ways to receive
warnings that are battery operated and charged as power may go out
well before severe thunderstorms arrive.

Beach/Coastal Hazards....Given the anomalously low pressures and
tight gradient winds it will be outright howling across the marine
waters. Winds have only trended upward since yesterday. Given the
incredibly long fetch of strong winds, seas will quickly climb to
high surf warning criteria. Surf heights along the coast Monday
night through Tuesday will likely approach 10 feet plus leading to
likely beach erosion, life threatening surf and rip currents and
likely coastal overwash along flood prone barrier islands. On top
of the intense wave action, strong low level winds will also push
water leading to coastal flooding. Current PETSS guidance supports
at least solid coastal flooding and with current trends we are
quickly approaching coastal flood warning criteria Monday evening
for Mobile Bay. For now the plan will be for a coastal flood
advisory in the coming packages as confidence increases and we
will have to monitor closely for a possible coastal flood warning.
Nonetheless, the usual flood prone areas should expect at least
minor to possibly moderate coastal flooding and overwashing.

Wind Impacts...As if the rest of the discussion didn`t spell it
out, it is going to be windy. Winds have trended upward with most
of the area likely seeing gusts up to 50 mph even as far inland as
highway 84. Along the coast winds will be peaked with gusts up to
60 mph possible as the strong low level jet and instability move
inland. A rather rare high wind warning has been issued for the
coastal areas with a high end wind advisory for the remainder of
the area. The compounding impacts of increased winds, weekend
trees from the last few months of drought and rainfall saturating
the soil will likely lead to trees coming down across the area.
Power outages will be possible well before any severe
thunderstorms arrive which could lead to a nasty combination.
Charge battery powered methods of receiving warnings before going
to bed and be sure to secure loose items outside.

Heavy Rainfall Impacts...Confidence in rainfall happening is high
but the heavy rainfall and flooding does It seem as likely outside
of maybe a few urban areas. PWATS will steadily climb in advance
of the system and elevated instability north of the lifting warm
front Monday evening will allow for a shot for some heavier rain.
The issues are 1. we are still dry from the last few months. 2.
the rather quick moving nature, especially with the second line
could force things to be fully rate driven and not sure we get the
rates long enough to overcome our relatively high flash flood
guidance. If that first round of rain Monday evening is stronger
and or the warm front gets hung up along the coast, then we might
see some minor flash flood concerns develop. Right now the best
area for heaviest rain is across southeastern Mississippi before
the eventual squall line gets moving east. This is honestly a
rather low confidence flooding situation and will likely be driven
heavily on the progression of the warm front and rain rates.

All and all Monday night into Tuesday looks to be impactful for
our area with or without strong thunderstorms. The environment has
continued to come together the full gambit of impacts are
becoming likely. Keep up to date with this system as potential
impacts may change as we get more details. BB/03


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Yesterday 10/10/23 was the 5 year anniversary of Michael’s landfall on the Florida panhandle. With family still in St Joe Beach, we head over from Navarre 3/4 times a year. The progress is amazing but the scars still remain. Here is a special that WJHG in Panama City did on the anniversary yesterday.

 

 

 

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000
WTNT65 KNHC 300157
TCUAT5

Hurricane Idalia Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1000 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

...IDALIA FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TONIGHT...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS LIKELY TOMORROW
MORNING WHERE THE CORE OF IDALIA MOVES INLAND...

NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate
that Idalia has strengthened further. Maximum sustained winds have
increased to 110 mph (175 km/h). The minimum pressure based on
dropsonde data from the aircraft has fallen to 960 mb (28.35
inches).

The National Hurricane Center has begun hourly position and
intensity updates on Idalia. The hourly updates will continue as
long as Idalia's eye is easily trackable in ground-based radar data.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.4N 84.6W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM S OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...29 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


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First of a few tornado watches:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0660.html


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The linemen have arrived!!!




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https://x.com/nwstallahassee/status/1696544257451216896?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA


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No expert here but looking at the water vapor, it looks like dry air might still be feeding into the SW side of Idalia?


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Pressure dropping like a rock

Recon data certainly suggests we have a cane imo.


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1:00 PM CDT Mon Aug 28
Location: 21.2°N 85.1°W
Moving: N at 8 mph
Min pressure: 987 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph


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https://x.com/treycejoneswx/status/1695944488068186158?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA

https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/1695972446049112416?s=46&t=0ZvB_AF2VfA6c0SDxf53yA


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Dry air to the north still remains upshear of the storm. While this recent pulse is the most impressive we've seen, Idalia hasn't done much to moisten the environment ahead of it, as such this dry air will continue be pushed into and entrained within the circulation. Unlikely that this current convection over the center will maintain itself long enough to facilitate substantial organization before dry air eats away at it a bit.

Dr. Cowan’s video has some great info on this!




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Looks like St Marks area for landfall, FD was on point about strength errors.


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Levi has a great video up on Tidbits from yesterday. He goes into good detail with info on LL & UL atmosphere conditions that should affect 93L’s development. 6Z GFS looks odd to me but I’m no expert. Definitely have an eye towards this here in Navarre.


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Kinda surprised with the data they didn’t go 40. Dr Knabb said it’s a coin flip & the forecasters decision. Not a big discrepancy though.

Recon enroute now. Curious to see what they find.

Thoughts on 91L?

Edit: up to 50% on the 6/1 8am update.

Was shocked to register 1001.2 imby this morning at 6:30 CDT, accompanied with wind gusts to 50mph+. It blew a portion of fence & gate down on the side of my house!


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Mike Seidel is reporting from Banner Elk on TWC. Just showed a web cam from Highlands and it’s snowing pretty good.


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Lots of love for WNC on the weather channel! Not telling you folks anything you don’t know but low placement & strength are going to be key in this one. Really hard for the models to pinpoint this. Synoptically the far SW Mnts except at high elevations will have boundary layer issues, the escarpment areas do well, the Balsams rake, the French Broad valley snow hole may appear, the Northern Mnts will have great variations but will generally over preform, the Foothills will be very tricky. Will be a exciting and frustrating chase for you guys. All in all a typical southern winter system for WNC!


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Hello mountain/foothill peeps! Just wanted to announce I’m lurking and here for some vicarious living. Definitely have an eyebrow raised for this event. Lot’s of ifs left to iron out and definitely some bust potential but, the event has me watching. Good luck to all!!!


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Hmmm….gotta be really close to hurricane Nicole. Maybe 70mph.



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Missfired into the seasonal thread. Shear vector is pivoting easterly. New strong convection should now wrap the LLC. At any rate, BOOOM!!!

Definitely the healthiest I’ve seen her. Will be curious to see what recon finds.


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000
WTNT43 KNHC 071455
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Julia Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132022
1100 AM EDT Fri Oct 07 2022

Earlier this morning, a concentrated burst of deep convection with
a high density of lightning developed near the center of the
cyclone while it was over the Guajira Peninsula, and microwave
imagery shows that convective banding has increased somewhat over
the adjacent waters. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
currently investigating the system so far has found maximum 925-mb
flight-level winds of 47 kt and SFMR surface winds of 34 kt, and on
that basis, the depression is upgraded to a 35-kt tropical storm.

Based on the latest aircraft fix, Julia is moving a bit faster
toward the west than expected with an initial motion of 280/16 kt.
A strong east-northeast to west-southwest oriented ridge which
stretches into the southern Gulf of Mexico should keep Julia on a
quick westward path during the next 48 hours. Since the track
guidance has sped up a bit over the past few forecast cycles, the
official forecast now brings Julia to the coast of Nicaragua by
Sunday morning, which is a little sooner than was previously
forecast. After landfall, the track guidance currently indicates
that Julia and its remnants should remain over Central America and
southern Mexico through Tuesday.

Stiff north-northwesterly shear (15-20 kt) is affecting Julia, and
that can be seen in the suppression of the northern edge of the
recent convective burst. Shear diagnostics suggest that this shear
should abate soon, and Julia should commence a steady strengthening
trend during the next two days while it crosses the southwestern
Caribbean Sea. Julia is forecast to become a hurricane by Saturday
evening, and the forecast peak intensity at the time of landfall in
Nicaragua is unchanged from the previous advisory. The official
forecast at that time is a bit above HCCA and the IVCN consensus
aids, but it's still below SHIPS and LGEM guidance. The NHC
forecast shows 72- and 96-hour remnant low points to indicate the
expected track over Central America, but it is highly likely that
the center will have dissipated by those times.


Key Messages:

1. Julia is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane by Saturday
evening while it moves over the southwestern Caribbean Sea, and a
Hurricane Warning is now in effect for San Andres, Providencia, and
Santa Catalina Islands. A Hurricane Watch is also now in effect for
much of the Nicaragua coast. Hurricane-force winds and a dangerous
storm surge are expected in areas where the core of the system
crosses the islands and moves onshore.

2. The risk of flash flooding continues today over portions of the
Guajira Peninsula. The potential for life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides is expected to spread to portions of Central America
this weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 12.7N 73.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 13.0N 75.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 13.2N 78.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 13.1N 81.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 13.1N 83.6W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
60H 10/0000Z 13.6N 85.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 10/1200Z 14.5N 88.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 11/1200Z 16.2N 93.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


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This should be Julia on the next advisory package. Very intense hot tower going up right adjacent to the center that looks to be a formative eastern eyeband. You can make the outline based on GLM lightning data, which is pretty neat. This thing is about to go off.

Recon seems to confirm.


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Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1150 AM EDT Tue Oct 4 2022

Special Tropical Weather Outlook to update discussion of the
tropical wave east of the Windward Islands

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:


East of the Windward Islands:
Updated: Visible satellite images and recent satellite-derived
wind data suggest that a broad low-level circulation could be
forming in association with the tropical wave located a few hundred
miles east of the southern Windward Islands. Although the wave
is currently being affected by strong upper-level winds, conditions
could become more conducive for a tropical depression to form while
moving westward at about 15 mph, crossing the Windward Islands
tonight and early Wednesday. Conditions appear to become more
conducive for development later this week when the system reaches
the central and western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development,
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected over portions of
the Windward Islands tonight and Wednesday. Interests in the
Windward Islands, the ABC Islands, and the northern coast of
Venezuela should monitor the progress of this system. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to
investigate this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg


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