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NavarreDon

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Posts posted by NavarreDon

  1. 13 hours ago, Prospero said:

    For the first time this year, I am actually starting to get a gut feeling like we might get hit harder than we've been expecting here in Tampa Bay.

    Not a lot of time to get ready, and no warnings up yet.

    Hopefully I am wrong. :)

     

    Welcome to Hurricane season 2020!

    • Like 2
  2. 52 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

    Banding on the south side of evident mid-level cyclonic rotation. Still no certainty of a vortex down at the surface but with that strong convective band aligned west to east and curving into the MCS, I have seen far worse classified a Tropical Depression. Getting a little impatient. We do not have any recon flight plans yet.

     

    emoji848.png

    e0f20d1570b935364289d5da736d7e94.gif&key=fa9557b8f1c71cd375dd0e0f280f3d569d82d3f268da65e7881b8fa144ab5885

    Has the TD look for sure!

  3. This may be one of the strangest disco's I've ever seen (MOB).....2020 I guess.

    .NEAR TERM UPDATE /Now Through Friday/...Hurricane Zeta was
    moving rapidly northeast at ~30 mph over the interior of southeast
    MS/southwest AL. Along the path, Zeta has been responsible for
    downing widespread trees which have taken out power lines and
    have contributed to structural damage. Life threatening/dangerous
    storm surge will continue over the coast. Zeta will continue to
    accelerate northeast through the night and is progged to lift out
    of the forecast area shortly after midnight. As the center of Zeta
    lifts out and weakens, strong winds will begin to taper as well
    as the tornado threat. Rain bands will also gradually move from
    west to east. A vigorous southern stream mid-level trof ejects
    eastward over the Lower MS River Valley Thursday and makes steady
    eastward progress over the southeast US Thursday night. This
    feature supports the passage of a strong cold front Thursday,
    which brings drier and cooler air to the local area in its wake.
    
    Coolest highs will be over the western zones with numbers in the
    mid 60s. Mid 70s along I-65 and 77 to 82 east of I-65 southward to
    the FL Panhandle. Overnight lows dip down into the mid to upper
    40s north of the coast Thursday night.
    • Haha 1
    • Weenie 1
  4. MOB has a decent write up about some of the inland affects below in last nights ST disco...

     

     

    SHORT TERM /Wednesday night Through Thursday night/...Bands of

    heavy rain and gusty winds will increase across the area on

    Wednesday night as Zeta approaches the local area from the

    southwest. At this time, landfall is forecast to occur in southeast

    Louisiana sometime early Wednesday evening and then lift northeast

    across southeast MS and into parts of southwest AL Wednesday

    night. Tropical storm conditions (strong wind gusts and heavy

    rain) will spread northeast across our forecast area Wednesday

    evening into the early predawn morning hours Thursday. This system

    will be interacting with a cold front and broad region of

    associated diffluence aloft, so it is unlikely we see the typical

    decay after landfall that we would see in storms earlier in the

    season. In fact, model soundings continue to suggest upwards of 80

    to 100 knots of flow in the eastern quadrant just off the surface

    (925-850 mb layer) persisting well after surface winds have

    weakened as Zeta moves inland over interior southeast Mississippi

    even up into central Alabama. This will serve as a source of

    momentum for heavy convective bands to transport to the surface.

    Therefore, while locations along and west of I-65 will have the

    greatest chance of seeing sustained tropical storm conditions

    Wednesday night, can`t rule out frequent strong gusts to tropical

    storm force farther east as well. As a result, a Tropical Storm

    Watch has been issued for the entire local area. a weakening Zeta

    accelerates quickly northeastward and by early Thursday morning

    Zeta is expected to be over northeast AL and moving rapidly away

    from the area with winds and rains gradually subsiding during the

    day on Thursday.

     

     

    .

    • Like 2
  5. Yikes!


    064
    WTNT41 KNHC 062034
    TCDAT1

    Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 9
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
    500 PM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020

    Shortly after the release of the 1500 UTC advisory package, the
    NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured a peak flight-level wind
    of 132 kt, and during its final passage through the northeast
    eyewall around 1700 UTC it reported a peak SFMR wind of 121 kt.
    The aircraft continued to report an extremely small 4-to-5-nmi-wide
    eye. The central pressure did level off somewhat on the final
    couple of penetrations, with the latest reported central pressure
    at 956 mb. The initial wind speed was raised to 120 kt on the
    earlier intermediate advisory, and has been set at 125 kt for this
    advisory. The next reconnaissance aircraft mission into the
    hurricane is scheduled for this evening.

    There has been no evidence of an outer eyewall from the aircraft
    reports or earlier radar imagery from Grand Cayman. As a
    result, some additional strengthening is likely to occur before
    Delta reaches the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula late
    tonight or early Wednesday. The NHC intensity forecast is once
    again a little above the various intensity aids until landfall in
    Mexico. When the small inner core of Delta moves over land,
    weakening is expected, but warm waters and low vertical wind shear
    over the southern Gulf of Mexico should support re-strengthening,
    and a second peak in intensity is likely when Delta is over the
    central Gulf of Mexico in 48-60 hours. After that time, increasing
    southwesterly shear and the cooler shelf waters over the
    northern Gulf are expected to cause some reduction in wind speed.
    The global models, however, depict a significant increase in the
    size of Delta's wind field while it is over the Gulf of Mexico,
    which increases the spatial extent of the storm surge and wind
    threats for the northern Gulf coast. So regardless of Delta's
    final landfall intensity, the projected large size of the hurricane
    is likely to result in a significant storm surge and wind event for
    portions of the northern Gulf coast later this week.

    Delta has been moving steadily west-northwestward today at 300/15
    kt. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous
    advisory. A mid-level ridge over Florida and the northeastern Gulf
    of Mexico is expected to continue steering Delta west-northwestward
    during the next 36-48 hours. After that time, a developing trough
    over the south-central United States should cause Delta to turn
    northward, and by Friday the hurricane is forecast to begin
    accelerating northward or north-northeastward ahead of the trough.
    This motion will bring Delta onshore along the northern Gulf coast
    between 72 and 96 hours. The dynamical models continue to be
    tightly clustered through 48-72 hours with some increase in spread
    thereafter. The overall trend in the guidance has been slightly
    westward, and the new forecast has been adjusted accordingly and
    lies near the middle of the envelope. Supplemental upper-air balloon
    launches at 0600 and 1800 UTC have begun at upper-air sites across
    portions of the southeastern United States. In addition, a NOAA
    G-IV synoptic surveillance mission is in progress and should provide
    additional data for the 0000 UTC cycle of the dynamical models.

    Key Messages:

    1. Life-threatening storm surge and potentially catastrophic wind
    damage are expected within portions of the northern Yucatan
    Peninsula of Mexico beginning tonight. All preparations to protect
    life and property should be rushed to completion.

    2. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of the Cayman Islands,
    western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula through midweek.
    This rainfall could lead to significant flash flooding and
    mudslides. The potential for heavy rain, flash and possible minor
    river flooding will increase across portions of the central Gulf
    Coast, Tennessee Valley, and southeastern United States as Delta
    moves inland later this week.

    3. There is an increasing likelihood of life-threatening storm surge
    and dangerous hurricane-force winds, especially along the coasts of
    Louisiana and Mississippi, beginning on Friday. Residents in these
    areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and
    follow advice given by local officials. Storm surge and hurricane
    watches will likely be issued for portions of the northern Gulf
    Coast on Wednesday.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 06/2100Z 18.9N 84.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
    12H 07/0600Z 20.2N 86.1W 135 KT 155 MPH
    24H 07/1800Z 21.8N 88.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
    36H 08/0600Z 23.0N 91.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
    48H 08/1800Z 24.4N 92.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
    60H 09/0600Z 25.9N 93.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
    72H 09/1800Z 28.0N 92.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
    96H 10/1800Z 32.4N 90.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
    120H 11/1800Z 35.5N 87.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW


    .

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