NavarreDon

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located over the Bay of Campeche have increased and
become a little better organized during the past several hours.
Recent satellite wind data also indicate that the system is
producing winds to near tropical storm force.  Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development,
and a tropical or subtropical storm is likely to form later today
or tonight while the system moves generally northeastward over
the western Gulf of Mexico.  The low is forecast to approach the
northern or northeastern Gulf Coast on Friday or Saturday and
regardless of development, the system is likely to produce gusty
winds and rough surf over those areas.  Heavy rainfall is also
possible across portions of the southeast U.S. late this week and
this weekend.  Interests along the northern and northeastern Gulf
coast should monitor the progress of this system.  For more
information about marine hazards while the low moves across the Gulf
of Mexico during the next couple of days, see products issued by the
Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch of the National Hurricane
Center. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

96L got it's cherry at 2:00 am

Nice write up from MOB on the possible impacts for my forecast area.

SHORT TERM /Thursday night Through Saturday night/...

Attention through the short-term forecast period will focus on the

potential sub-tropical storm likely to develop across the

southwestern Gulf of Mexico. A disturbance now organizing within

the Bay of Campeche will begin to lift northeastward by Thursday

night in response to southwesterly steering flow to the east of an

upper level low pressure system over central Texas. The

disturbance will likely become entangled with the upper low and

frontal boundary initially stalled to it`s north. There will

likely be a brief period where shear may relax slightly on Friday

before the system interacts with stronger westerlies aligned

along the northern Gulf Coast ahead of the next approaching upper

trough. This may allow for some gradual strengthening of the

surface low before reaching the northern Gulf of Mexico and

becoming increasingly sheared. This system is likely to become

increasingly baroclinic in nature before reaching the northern

Gulf Coast and remain a hybrid type system. The potential for this

system to be truly tropical when reaching the Gulf Coast appears

low at this time.

The ultimate track, timing, and intensity of the system is also

in question as there remains model differences. The ECENS is

further west and weaker with the GEFS to the east and stronger.

This system has yet to form a low level center and there will

likely be shifts in model guidance until this occurs. In addition,

since this system will not likely be completely tropical in

nature, there likely will be wind and rain impacts far from the

center. At this point, we will continue to indicate increasing

rain chances, gusty winds, and potential coastal flooding across

our forecast area from Friday through Saturday night. Impacts

will depend upon the eventual track and intensity. Please continue

to monitor the latest forecast through the end of this week into

the weekend. /JLH

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18Z GFS never gets below 1000. Looks like 1-4” for most of the Panhandle.


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System is now invest 96L

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=gom&product=ir

Certainly a lot of shear but a lot of models are latching onto a weak system developing. This would seem to max out as one of the classic gulf half-cyclones maybe attaining low end TS winds. Good news with this system is it has its moisture aimed at the SE, a region that has dealt with significant drought issues over the summer. Recent rains along with the potential for some tropical rain would do a lot of favors for these areas.

Up to 40% for this little ditty. Not an expert but seems like lots of shear to deal with?


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Awesome job keeping this thread updated HA, really appreciated!!! NHC leaning heavily towards the Euro & friends. Will be interesting to see what verifies.

Still a long way to go and not entirely convinced Karen doesn't dissipate in such hostile northeasterly mid-to-upper level flow. If Karen makes it north of PR intact though, the building ECONUS ridge is quite a humdinger. Obviously Bahamas and Florida would be the immediate concern based on ECMWF op trend and EPS. The central and eastern GOM heat potential is high for a fast moving west to wnw tracking hurricane regardless of the Gulf Loop. Again, very early and too much uncertainty at this point, but the potential is eye-opening.

95L gets its cherry, 50% 2 day, 70% 5 day.


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95L up to 60% on the 5 day 8:00 am NHC update.

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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA

Tropical Weather Outlook...Corrected

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

800 AM EDT Wed Sep 11 2019

Delete word and correct number

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Widespread cloudiness and showers extending from the southeastern

Bahamas northward over the southwestern Atlantic for a few

hundred miles are associated with a surface trough of low pressure.

Limited development of this system is anticipated today or

tomorrow, however conditions are forecast to become a little more

favorable for development over the weekend, and a tropical

depression could form as the disturbance moves slowly toward the

west-northwest across the Florida Straits or South Florida and over

the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, this

disturbance could produce periods of locally heavy rainfall and

gusty winds across the Bahamas through Thursday, and across Florida

during the weekend.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Delete if already posted.

NHC down to 10% on 48hr and 5 day due to dry air & shear......sounds familiar for the N Gulf!


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19 hours ago, jbenedet said:

Think there’s a 50/50 chance we see a lemon over the north central Gulf as this UL trough digs south over the next 24 hrs. Seems to be increasing model support for a weak surface low, collocated with deep convection near LA, tracking east, pretty close to the coast. Little chance this has the environment or time to develop into something more meaningful. Just something to watch. 

Nice call out on this. MOB talks about it in their morning short term:

.SHORT TERM /Wednesday Through Thursday night/...A large upper
trof extending from the eastern states into the north central Gulf
steadily weakens during the period while an upper high remains
anchored over the 4 Corners region. Another upper ridge over the
western Atlantic gradually begins to build into the eastern Gulf
meanwhile as the upper trof weakens. At the beginning of the
period, a cold front will be located just off the mid Atlantic
coast, across northern Florida, and extending westward across the
northern Gulf. The frontal boundary lingers generally in place
through Thursday night and gradually weakens. That said, there is
the potential for a surface low to develop somewhere along the
weakening frontal boundary, and this development would occur in a
rather weakly sheared environment (generally <10 knots 1000-400
mb). While nearly all guidance shows no significant development
of a surface low along the boundary, weak boundaries like this
that stall in the Gulf within a weakly sheared environment have
later on sometimes spawned tropical systems. For that reason, the
National Hurricane Center has introduced a 20 percent chance of
tropical cyclone development mainly within the time period
beginning Thursday and lasting into Saturday. Note that this
potential system is not associated with Tropical Depression Three,
currently located between the Bahamas and the Florida peninsula,
which is expected to meanwhile drift northward. For the forecast,
have gone with mostly dry conditions through the period except for
small pops near the coast and will need to closely monitor for
the possibility of a system developing in the Gulf and how this
might affect the area. Highs on Wednesday will be mostly in the
upper 80s then around 90 on Thursday. Lows Wednesday night range
from the mid 60s inland to around 70 at the coast, with a modest
warming trend for Thursday night when lows range from the mid 60s
well inland to the lower 70s closer to the coast. A low risk of
rip currents is expected through the period. /29

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with an
area of low pressure located near Andros Island in the Bahamas.
While environmental conditions are only marginally conducive for
development, only a slight increase in the organization of this
system could result in the formation of a tropical depression later
today or tonight. Additional development is not anticipated after
that time due to strong upper-level winds. The low is expected to
move northwestward around 15 mph today and north-northwestward to
northward tonight and Tuesday, remaining offshore of the east coast
of the Florida peninsula. This system will continue to produce
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds over portions of the
northwest Bahamas through tonight. Showers and thunderstorms could
also spread over portions of the east coast of the Florida peninsula
tonight and Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Pasch


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Anyone notice the 18Z GFS around hour 240ish?


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8:00 am EDT NHC

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A trough of low pressure located over central Georgia is forecast to
move southward toward the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, where a broad
area of low pressure is expected to form in a couple of days.  Some
gradual development is possible thereafter and a tropical depression
is likely to form by the end of the week while the low meanders near
the northern Gulf Coast.  Regardless of development, this system has
the potential to produce heavy rainfall along portions of the
northern and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast later this week.  For more
information about the rainfall threat, please see products issued by
your local weather forecast office and the NOAA Weather Prediction
Center.  Interests along the northern Gulf Coast and the Florida
peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

Saw this from the 12Z euro....




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NHC ups 5 day to 40%

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

TAE has this graphic on their homepage basically picturing what Windspeed is saying above.




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A boundary is forecast to stall and linger over the north GOM next week. An MCS currently organizing over Kansas may push SSE with the boundary and move off the Panhandle coastline possibly developing a sharp surface trough / area of low pressure, which some of the globals are trying to close off into a tropical or sub tropical cyclone. At least something to watch for development towards the mid-to-late week timeframe.

Looks like its snowing pretty good @ the Wolf via the cam.

https://skiwolfridgenc.com/the-mountain/web-cam

1 minute ago, Met1985 said:

Heavy snow now with the temp down to 34 with the wind ripping. 

Need some pics if possible 85! Snowing about 100 miles NW of us down here.

Did any of you feel this? Around 4:15 am EST.