NavarreDon

We have a cherry.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. The remnants of Eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Amanda are currently 
located inland near the Guatemala-Yucatan Border.  This large 
disturbance is forecast to move slowly northward this morning, 
followed by a northwestward motion later today, and the center of 
the low pressure system could emerge over the southeastern Bay 
of Campeche by this evening. If the remnants move back over water, 
environmental conditions appear conducive to support some 
development, and a new tropical depression could form while the 
system moves little through the middle of this week. Regardless of 
tropical cyclone formation, heavy rainfall is likely to continue 
over portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize, 
and western Honduras during the next few days. For additional 
information on the rainfall threat, see products from your national 
meteorological service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

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Up to 40% 48hrs & 50% 5 day


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_5d0.png


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My Brother just east of Glenville and at elevation has between 3-4”.


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I’ve got about .75” here. He should have the same if not more. 

Morning guys, just wanted to say a couple things. Think this is going to be a decent event for some of you. It seems like some are apprehensive. Anyone closer to the 85 corridor has the right to be. If you’re up in the Mnts try to take emotions out of what you are or are not seeing. Use technology and synoptics. If your not the best model reader lean on GSP’s AFD’s they are a wealth of knowledge and have pretty much everything that’s been happening in print with the reasons why. With all the micro climates up there you’re going to have the usual over & under achievers. But don’t rush to judgment based on emotion. Use the tools at hand to understand what’s happening and why. Sorry for the rant & I hope all of you overachieve!!!


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Hello Mnt & Foothill peeps! I see we’re in the pre storm boom or bust excitement phase. I really like the look of this system. In GSP’s afternoon disco they speak of the system currently in Texas being better organized than modeled. Certainly won’t be surprised to see some places upgraded overnight. As usual there will be over & under performers. Enjoy the now though because it’s a big part of the fun! Good luck to all of you.

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Wind and storms are ripping onshore from the gulf down here in the Panhandle. Tons of energy & fuel for you guys upstream. Be safe & alert today!


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Surprised this isn't getting more attention:

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1127 PM CST Wed Feb 05 2020

   Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
   FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NORTH CAROLINA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are expected to spread from the northeast Gulf
   Coast this morning to the Carolinas by early evening. Damaging winds
   could be common with this activity, and a few tornadoes are also
   possible.

   ...Northeast Gulf Coast to the Carolinas...

   Strong low-latitude trough is beginning to shift east across the Big
   Bend of TX/northeast Mexico as a pronounced mid-level speed max
   approaches the base of this feature. By mid day, 500mb speed max in
   excess of 100kt will translate into the lower MS Valley, then
   strengthen to near 140kt over the Carolinas by 27/12z. In response,
   intense 12hr mid-level height falls (200m) will spread across the
   northern Gulf States into the western Carolinas.

   LLJ is forecast to strengthen across the northern Gulf Basin into
   southern AL by sunrise Thursday. This will encourage boundary-layer
   moistening with upper 60s surface dew points expected to advance
   inland across southern AL/GA, with near 70F dew points across the FL
   Panhandle. This moistening will be more than adequate for
   substantial SBCAPE ahead of the surging cold front. Latest thinking
   is scattered-numerous thunderstorms will be ongoing along the front
   at the start of the period. As large-scale forcing approaches this
   region, a sharpening band of frontal convection should evolve. Given
   the strengthening wind fields there is increasing confidence that a
   potentially damaging squall line will race northeast across the ENH
   Risk area. In addition, a few pre-squall line supercells may also
   develop as minimal forcing will be needed to initiate convection.
   Tornado threat will be most concentrated with these more discrete
   structures, though embedded squall-line circulations are also
   expected given the shear.

   A well organized squall line should progress across GA/northern FL
   into the Carolinas during the evening hours. This linear MCS should
   advance off the NC Coast shortly after midnight.

   ..Darrow/Bentley.. 02/06/2020

You know the models dont look that bad. Im kind of excited about the next few weeks.

MOB with a great disco on our area down here!

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=MOB&issuedby=MOB&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1


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Thoughts?

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

On 11/2/2019 at 9:35 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

It was a good run with a lot of tracking. See y’all next season.

Hold on!!!

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Tue Nov 19 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure located about 250 miles northeast of
the northern Leeward Islands is gradually becoming better organized
and the associated shower and thunderstorm activity has been
developing closer to the center since yesterday. If this trend
continues, then a tropical or subtropical depression or storm could
form in the next day or so while the system moves northwestward and
then northward over the open Atlantic. The low is forecast to
interact with a frontal system by midweek and further development is
unlikely after that time. For more information, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Since there were no watches or warnings in effect, advisories are issued at the normal hours

I’m sure this is going to sound stupid but...why no update since 10?


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Nice write up by MOB on the tornado threat.

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1111 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2019

.DISCUSSION...See updated information for land and marine areas below.

&&

.UPDATE...A complicated synoptic pattern exists over the local
area. First off, a warm front was draped from off the Louisiana
coast up across the MS Sound, east northeast to the I-10 corridor
over the northwest FL Panhandle. Tornado watch is in effect thru 4
pm this afternoon over the western half of the local area. A brief
discussion on notable late AM mesoscale analysis data shows bulk
shear magnitudes 35 to 50 kts from the MS sound northward over the
watch area. Co-located with this area, 0-1km storm relative
helicity values range from 200-300 m2/s2 mostly north of the warm
front, while the highest instability resides south of the warm
front where a strong gradient of mixed layer capes of 1000-2000
J/KG is positioned from the coast, southward out over the marine
area. Along the warm front and the strongly backed low level flow,
there is an increased potential for any updrafts lifting up off
the Gulf and across the coast to stretch and tighten as cells
approach and move across the boundary where the low level
helicity begins to increase. Tornadoes can spin up quickly in this
environment.

Tropical depression 17 has formed over the southwest Gulf and the
expectation is that as this feature gains latitude, it will merge
with a cold front approaching slowly from the west and transition
into a post-tropical cyclone. No coastal tropical hazards at this
time due to the expected transition, but may result in the
necessity of the issuance of a gale warning over portions of the
marine area and perhaps a high surf warning. That decision will be
made this afternoon.

Heavy rain threat continues. No changes made to flash flood
watches. High risk of dangerous to potentially deadly rip
currents continues. /10



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Tornado warning for Harrison county MS.




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Pretty tight cluster!




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Advisories forthcoming

Tropical Weather Discussion
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
945 AM EDT Fri Oct 25 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special outlook issued to update discussion of systems in the Gulf
of Mexico and southwest of the Azores.

1. Updated: Visible satellite imagery and surface observations indicate
that a tropical cyclone is forming in the western Gulf of Mexico,
and advisories will be initiated on this system later this morning.
The system is forecast to merge with a cold front and become post-
tropical tonight over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Gale-force
winds are expected behind the cold front over the western Gulf of
Mexico today and Saturday. For more information, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
system later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.


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97L gets it cherry on the 8:00pm.




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Interesting solution by the 18Z GFS hours 30-42!


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Up to 60% on the 2pm NHC outlook.


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Watching this one closely from Navarre!

17 hours ago, cptcatz said:

If this hits Florida as a high end TS or low hurricane, I gotta give it to the GFS.  Three weeks ago the GFS was consistently showing this exact system impacting somewhere in Florida on October 19-20.  Pretty impressive.

Not only likely but, the euro had been showing a LA landfall until the latest run. This is from MOB's overnight.

Global spectral models are in general agreement projecting the
upper level trough currently moving eastward over west Texas to
essentially interact with the disturbance and rapidly advance it
northeastward over the Gulf. This system is likely to become
increasingly baroclinic in nature before reaching the northern
Gulf Coast and remain a hybrid type system. The models do vary in
the eventual track and timing of the system. With the ECMWF now
projecting the low moving onshore east of Destin, Florida Saturday
morning and the GFS near Port St. Joe, Florida. Keep in mind
though there still remains a great deal of uncertainty in the
eventual track as the disturbance has still not developed a low
level center...so inherently there will be more error at this
point in the model tracks, and the model forecast will
undoubtedly change as the system develops. Also, since this system
is expected to evolve into more of hybrid/baroclinic system the
rain and wind impacts will possibly extend far from the center.