CarlislePaWx

Made it down to +0.9F for my low, basically to my predicted low of zero. Tiny bit of wind kicked up during the night and stopped the drop. Well I will be sorry to say goodbye to the snowcover, but I would rather lose it through sunshine than through rain. Looks like by the time any meaningful rain makes it here (not until Thursday) the warmth of the preceding days will have erased most of it. No one is talking about the long range. What's up with beyond the end of next week? What did the overnight Euro show for days 7>10?

At midnight I have radiated all the way down to +2.5 degrees. The rate of decline had been steady at 2 deg/hour until about the last hour when it slowed down to less than 1 deg/hr. That probably means I'm not going to go much below zero overnight, but we'll see in the morning. A quick peak at all my surrounding wunderground stations shows they are all radiating also. NWS had to drastically lower their original forecasted lows. Mine earlier was for a low of 10. Now they have it at 4, which I'm already below. York bottomed out back at 10pm at -6 before rising back up a tiny bit. I melted down my snow and my 1.2" produced 0.08" of liquid for a perfect 15:1 ratio. Cashtown, what was your ratio?? Tomorrow's forecast high of 40 with sun is literally going to feel like a heatwave. It's been continuously below freezing here since 4:15pm back on the 28th. When we rise above it tomorrow afternoon I'll calculate the number of hours.

At 9:30, one hour since my last post, I'm down 2 more degrees to +6.4 F !!

At the moment conditions are perfect for extreme radiational cooling. The skies cleared right after sunset. The winds are calm and haven't budged since 7:00. There is fresh snow of varying depths from roughly my latitude and south. I suppose only the dewpoints might prevent an incredible drop, but I think a lot of people are headed towards zero and below by morning. That includes those up north who didn't get anything today but who still have a decent snowpack on the ground. I'm down to 8.4 after being near 17 just 4 hours ago. I'm expecting to drop to zero by morning and wouldn't be surprised to see lower than that.

Just got back after running errands past 2 hours. Surprised it is still snowing, but the end really is arriving. Picked up another 0.2" to give me a final of 1.2" for the event. Once again the models handled this one very well as this was just about exactly what all of them were calling for over my area...between 1 and 1.5". Temp at 16.7 after peaking at 17.0. It was a great day with the calm, cold, and light snow falling all day long. Got a great view of the male cardinal that nests near my forest. Really easy to spot when the background is mainly black and white. Will be sorry to see it slowly vanish over the next few days. At least it should remain dry for a while.

Looks like bubbler's about to get hit good. I'll bet a 1/2" additional from that alone. Meanwhile, here it's letting up and I'm back to really light snow. Officially 1.0" on the board. Temp up to 16.5.

It's been snowing at the best rates of the storm over the past 30 minutes. Just measured 0.9" on the board. That's not saying that much, but it's at least a few tenths per hour now vs. less than a tenth/hr before. Temp holding at 15.4 degrees. Looking at radar it looks like good rates for about another hour. Might make it to 1.5". Bubbler look out...heavy snow headed your way...maybe for Cashtown also if it holds together.

Quick scan of the climate summary for MDT showed we were only 0.5 F degrees above normal for the month and we were 0.7" above normal snowfall for the month. Interestingly last year we were 1.5 degrees below normal but we were also 3.0" below normal snowfall for the month. Given the warmth that we had the first half of this month we more than made up for it with the second half.

When the snow started back between 6 and 7 the temperature was 11 degrees. That makes this event the coldest temp with snow falling since the Feb 2003 snow storm (iirc) for me here. Jan '96 was the absolute coldest when the snow started with a temp of 8 degrees. Like everyone else the snow is super fine and has accumulated close to 0.5" so far. Temp slowly rising, now up to 13.5 degrees. Totally calm and quiet out there.

Yes, hope you go lower than your -9 from Thursday morning, so -10F or lower. I'm down to +3.4 F, so not much further for me to go to reach zero. Looking at the obs to our west it seems that clear skies are at least going to last a few more hours. If the winds can stay calm we'll have good radiational cooling like we had for a few hours before dawn this morning.

You might have a shot at breaking it if the clouds hold off for a few more hours. My winds completely went calm again and I've dropped 2 degrees in the past 20 minutes, down to 3.9. Would love to hit zero again after midnight to have two days in a row with sub zero lows. I don't know how close the clouds are to us right now. Hope you reach -10.

Wow...the HRRR did juice up a bit. I am now legitimately in the 2" accumulation zone....not that there's going to be that big of a difference between 1" and 2". Although it will be super cold while it is falling. I love watching it snow with temps in the teens. Super fluffy and easy to remove. Temp wise, bottomed out around 4.8F about an hour ago and now have risen up to 6.1. Not expecting to drop any lower since clouds will be knocking on the doorstep which will halt any further decline.

I think whatever you get (<1") will be over with well before late afternoon.

Reached -0.4F right at midnight, but then the temp rose back up to between +1 and +2 where it hung out for the next six hours until around 6AM when it slowly began to fall again. It kept on falling until it reached my low of -4.7F about 20 minutes after sunrise, or about 7:40am. That reading was within a few tenths of a degree of either tying or breaking my all-time recorded low since moving here in 2000. I think I only dropped to around -2 back in Jan of 2015. I've had a couple of zero to -1 lows as well. Conditions to radiate were perfect in that hour or so before sunrise, so of course it had to wait until then when I had the entire night. With dew points around -15 the bottom really could have fallen out with a deeper snowpack and calmer winds. Oh well. Speaking of predictions for snow tomorrow NWS is forecasting less than one inch for me. Haha. Guess we'll see how that one turns out. I like bubbler's better.

Thx for the tip. Will note that for future events.

FV3 most bullish of NAM/GFS models for Friday with 2-3" in our area. Other 3 are 1" or less. Wonder how long it will hold on to this 2/8 storm? After the Euro comes out maybe someone with access can tell us if that storm is showing up on it?

Ok, well, my squall ended up depositing 0.2" of new snow, which is 0.2" more than I was expecting. Would have been nice to have witnessed the whiteouts reported by Cash and bubbler to my south. It never got heavier here than moderate. Temp continues to drop, now down to 19.6. Temps out in western PA are about 10-15 degrees colder at the moment. Looks like the PIT area is around +5. That stuff is headed right for us. My point n click is one degree colder for tonight, now down to -2. We'll see. The Friday storm is going to ruin our shot at radiational cooling for lows Friday morning, or we'd all probably reach -5 or lower. I think we still get opportunities for even lower temps during February after the warm spell ends.

Ok, spoke a little too soon. Flurries increased to wind-blown light to moderate snow with a solid dusting now and fairly reduced visibilities (half mile?). Radar faking me out. Temp starting to drop, down to 21.2 and pressure rising rapidly along with winds shifting to NW. I'd say the arctic front has passed me.

Haha. My phone just went off again with the snow squall warning. On radar what's left of it is over me right now and all I have are a few flurries! Looks like Voyager might be the only one who ends up with something. South of there it's completely falling apart / drying up. Oh well, another disappointment. Maybe 2" for Friday?

Had a morning low of +5.0F from radiational cooling over fresh snowpack. Shot up to 23.0 before sun got blocked by incoming clouds form "squall". Expecting it to begin snowing here at least a little any minute.

Hah! The squall is literally collapsing over Cumberland county as I speak and as it is about to arrive.

Congrats. What a difference 20 miles East-West made with this one. 1.4" for me and 3.8" for you. The models consistently said the drop off would occur just west of the river and they appear to have been right. Oh well, at least my ground is white again and the forest behind me is all covered. Very picturesque...until the howling winds arrive tomorrow morning.

Well, I did get another 1/2" to end with 1.4" total and 19.2" for the season so far. Guess we'll see what the squalls have to offer tomorrow, if anything before the plunge sets in.

Moderate snow. Had a period of heavy snow with fat flakes about 30 minutes ago that helped speed up the accumulation. Just measured 0.9" on the board. Temp peaked at 30.2 and is back to 30.0. Looking at radar I have no idea what to expect as to how much longer the good stuff is going to last. Maybe another 1/2"? Will be thrilled to reach the 2" mark.

Moderate with increasing flake size, so perhaps heading towards heavy. At the high temp of the day of 30.0. It won't go much higher since we're past peak insolation. Sticking everywhere but streets/rooftops. Beginning to stick to car windshields. Closing in on about 1/2" accumulation.