CarlislePaWx

Snow finally just re-started here again as well. Only had a dusting from the earlier snow. Temp 29.1. DP 23. Ramped up quickly to moderate intensity.

For our region a wind chill advisory means wind chills will be between -5 to -15 F for a sustained period of time. A wind chill warning means wind chills will drop to anything below -15F, usually -15 to -25F for a sustained period. I've been following the progression of the core of the arctic air, which right now is crossing from Canada into northern Minnesota. The GFS has been forecasting 850 temps to be -39C as that core traverses southeast through the state. -39C is very close to -40F which is pretty dramatic cold. In their forecast discussion the Mets were saying they haven't seen this kind of cold come down out of Canada in many years. It's already down to -15F at MSP and they are forecast to drop to a low of -30F both tonight and tomorrow night. Tonight, however, there will be gusty winds and their wind chills are expected to range from -45 to -65F ! YIKES. Our lows tomorrow night will be with wind so most of us will have similar temps at similar elevations. If we can keep skies clear long enough Thursday night, winds should go calm and I would think we'd have a shot at lower lows. In my grid I've got a forecast low of -1 tomorrow night but +4 Thursday night. Last thought...CTP is pretty bullish on snow squalls late tomorrow morning with heavy snow mentioned and a 50% likelihood. Tomorrow might turn out to be more exciting than today. I love snow squalls even though they rarely last more than 5-10 minutes.

I don't think the warmth is going to last long. All the indexes, EPO, AO, NAO are forecast to swing solidly into our favorable direction which will leave weeks 2, 3, and 4 of February in a very cold and stormy pattern. Euro weeklies have never given up on forecasting this and are still showing this for the eastern US. Personally, after this week's arctic outbreak I won't mind a break from the extreme cold for a bit. On the other hand it would be nice to build up a snow base, which even if we get one tomorrow might not be around come the end of this weekend.

Much improved vs. dried up 0z.

Temp here currently 39.4. Cold(er) air has remained locked in as the warmest it got was yesterday afternoon before it rained at 43. Only recorded a trace of rain through midnight yesterday. Today have recorded 0.70" of rain since midnight. Rain has put a pretty good dent in snowpack. It's very patchy now with some bare spots and some snowpacked spots remaining. Wonder if we'll see a change to snow behind the front as the gfs has advertised for many runs? Expecting that early afternoon if it's going to happen.

35" for me here. I think I was the winner for that one. NAM had me in the bullseye repeatedly leading up to the event. Great storm. Already 3 years ago. That was also another Saturday storm.

Wow...the Fv3 gives MDT 4.8" of snow Thursday morning between 12Z and 18Z! It then dissipates as you go further east. Must be unique timing of temps with energy along the front? That 970 low is so wound up the big snows miss west of the Susquehanna. Of course It's also 6 days out so I'm not particularly worried. This is likely the storm Larry Cosgrove was talking about that was likely going to form in the 6-10 day timeframe (2 days ago). A real monster if that pressure came to fruition. 970 would be less than 10mb away from the pressure of the superstorm when it was at our latitude.

This is the reddest total lunar eclipse I have ever seen. Magnificent. Also frigid. Will be easy to remember the two events connected together in the future. Down to 9.7 F.

I was referring to the part that comes after the rain in the Thursday timeframe. Regarding later in the period, in Larry Cosgrove's weekly newsletter that came out last night he said to be on the lookout in the 6 to 10 day timeframe for an east coast storm along with no shortage of available arctic air already in place. So, it does look like things are going to begin to get exciting again after our brief midweek warm up.

Well I'm down to 21.0 degrees at 5:00, only 2 degrees off from this morning's forecast. Not bad. Unfortunately the wind chill is close to +8F, which is bad.

This morning my point n click said my temp would drop to 19 by 5:00pm. Now, shortly after 4:00 I am down to 23. Don't think I'll make it to 19 by 5:00, but except for when the sun was out strong a few hours ago the temp has been on a gradual downhill slide most of the past 6 hours. I've had multiple wind gusts into the mid-upper 20's as well. The barometric pressure here bottomed out around 7:00am at 992 mb or 29.30". That low was pretty strong. I don't remember it ever being progged to be in the low 990's. I remember seeing upper 990's. I guess that played into the further NW movement overall with the storm. Wonder what's in store for us midweek after the warmer portion of the storm is through?

I thought MAG said he was going to keep this thread but just rename it.

Morning all... The front appears to have just passed through here as I have rising pressure with suddenly gusty winds which just reached 30mph. The temp overnight remained between 32 and 33 until 7am when it began to rise, peaking at 37 at 9:30. Now back down to 36.3. Total liquid from the storm was 1.29" with 3.6" of snow. I've got about half of that snow left in very mushy form. On to the glacier we go.

Still about 90% sleet here with 10% freezing rain. The ZR is about to become just R as my temp is precisely 32.0 and after rising fairly quickly, it suddenly stopped allowing a very tiny glaze to form on top of the snow, which the sleet has been really compacting. Might be back down to around 3".

Those of us in Cumberland all seem to have ended up with around 3.5". How's that for consistency? I'm still 100% sleet. However my temp has slowly begun to rise and is now up to 31.3. I don't think there will end up being any freezing rain here either, or if there is it will end up melting before dawn.

BTW...I wasn't trying to take attention away from the storm tonight by those posts. After Sauss asked it sent me off in the direction of looking at that since for those of us "down here" that's the next big thing. OK...back to the storm already in progress...

Hope nobody has to stay outside very long with THIS Monday morning...

Can I interest anyone in sub-zero at 7:00AM Monday morning??? I offer you the latest HRRR for your comfy enjoyment...

100%

Perhaps I should just ignore the board until Horst says something's coming. Then I'll let you text me and save me from the countless hours I spent chasing tonight's storm since last Monday morning.

exceeded...by a whopping 0.3". Truth is I might have had a few tenths more of snowfall because I didn't realize the sleet had moved in until I went to take the measurement, and it looked like there was some sleet accumulation on top of the snow already. But, it's what I measured. And yes, the snow stick was perfectly perpendicular to the board. Haha. I'm a horribly detailed individual in many areas of my life and accuracy of weather measurements is near the top of my list!

Just went out to take my hourly measurement and measured 3.6", that was 2.0" in the last hour. The bad news...sleet has mixed in. Looks like 75/25 snow/sleet at the moment. So I guess that's it for me for snowfall. Hi itstrainingtime. 3.6. I win...but only barely. But...you win being the closest to the actual total vs my predicted 4.8. That's great about Newville. He's about 15 miles west of me and picked up 2" more.

Fatty flakes, fatty flakes, baker's man... That yellow on radar over me now is NOT sleet! This is >2"/hr. But it has caused my temp to go up to 30.6.

Darker greens are now delivering. Heavy snow. Rate def > 1"+/hr. Just measured 2.3". Looks great. Temp 30.4.

I'd say more like 30+. Similar to the speed of that squall that ran its way up here a few days ago that NWS issued a SWS for. That was moving at 40.