CarlislePaWx

You sleeted out here in the superstorm? I didn't know it reached this far inland. (I was in north Jersey at the time.) After 13" of snow i proceeded to have 5" of sleet!!! All with temps in the teens.

Well, that's it for me guys. Switched over to sleet about 10 minutes ago. Took a final snow measurement and it's 0.8". I don't have a board at the moment so I'm not going to be able to get a definitive sleet accumulation. But, I'll estimate a little later. Disappointed I didn't reach 2", but I guess we should listen to @Itstrainingtime who said when the low(s) are going west of you, lower your expectations regardless of the models. I never had high expectations but I was hoping to reach the 2" mark. The other disappointing thing is that the GFS took away our long-lasting cold stretch with its several snowstorms and replaced it with blah warmth. Hopefully we don't have to wait horribly long for our next legitimate snow shot. Temp 26.8 / 23.4 with a mix of sleet / snow I'd say 75%/25% right now.

Just went out to take a measurement. 0.6" on the ground. It's heavy now but the flakes are pretty fine still. Looking like it will get even heavier here when the moderate green arrives within the next 30 minutes. Temp down to 25.7 / 22.6. Dew Point is rising now. It held around 20 during the first round.

Heavier stuff arriving now. Moderate green on radar approaching. Hope that's snow and not sleet. 26.1.

Snow now moderate for the first time of this event. It has pushed the temp back down to 26.2. Looks like it's going to get even heavier here within the next 30 minutes as the green echoes make it here. Gotta get to that 2" mark fast before the mix arrives.

Snow has now resumed. Light. Temp 27.0 / 20.7. Congrats to those to the east who picked up more from round 1. Should also add winds have just picked up from the SE. Just had a gust to 14.

No snow here yet but it looks like it's getting close. Meanwhile temp has risen now to 26.6 / 20.5.

Yeah, looks like some great green echoes are rapidly approaching after a brief lull I'm in now. Have picked up roughly 0.4" total so far. Temp 24.1 / 19.7.

Snow has been steady, but primarily light. Ground is white now. I'd say about 0.3" accumulation. Temp 22.3 / 19.2. Started here around 7:30, so after almost 2 hours it hasn't been particularly productive (yet).

That's the highest amout for MDT in quite a few runs. The 4" line even reaches me now. Go GooFuS!

For the third time this season the pressure reached 30.70" (earlier today). That almost always means there will be strong CAD for any precip event that occurs within 36 hours of the pressure peak. So that's my reasoning.

I don't believe any rapid warm up at the surface. Throw it out!

Hey Hey...for the first time I'm not in sleet at 21Z! And it's got me over the 3" mark now. Funny how things keep slowly improving as we get to less than 36 hours from the start of the snow.

I barely can interpret a sounding. However, after looking over the upper air temp (on the NAM) it shows that the warmest the temp gets at the primary measuring levels of 925, 850, and 700 millibars is +1 up until the point the precip cuts off (by 0Z Sun). However, the sounding says that a small layer between 775mb and 850mb rises to 36F at 18Z. It says temps are below freezing from 850 down to the surface and from 775 on up to 700. So, that little portion of the atmosphere above freezing is what gives us (me) the sleet. (I did the sounding from my location in Carlisle.)

Ah, so the colder trend leading in to the storm is happening. GFS picked up on that this morning. Is the NAM cutting back on the ridiculous 850's up to the NY border?

Just to clarify MDT proper is in the 1-3" snow/sleet with freezing rain/drizzle at the end and no plain rain. He also calls for a period of heavy sleet possible at the height of the precip.

Well, thanks for giving an explanation. What you say makes sense. It's just hard to imagine how terrain could literally act like a funnel to shove that tongue of warm air aloft up over us.

Gee, that makes me feel better? What is with this snow hole? I'd really like to know how meteorologically this is possible. Is this a representation of a primary transferring to a secondary? That's about the only thing that would make any sort of sense.

I haven't been able to figure out why run after run on the GFS it magically makes the snow evaporate over Cumberland and Adams counties while points west, north, and east all get more. I mean I know there will always be a little bit of a downsloping effect from Blue Mountain but something seems wrong with the programming of the model for the area specifically sandwiched between Blue Mountain and South Mountain. If MDT is getting 4" there's no way I'm only getting 0.5".

Looking over the 18Z Nam I see it showing a snow to sleet storm and then ending before 7pm Saturday evening. No rain as surface remains below freezing before, during, and then after the storm passes. This seems to concur with the snow to sleet storm the GFS painted over us as well. It would be great to reach 2" of snow before the mix/changeover. My guess is there will likely be a nice burst of heavy snow for the first several hours before the mix. One thing the GFS shows is temps will be no warmer than the 30's through the end of the run with 20's for highs for quite a few of the days.

Yeah. I almost always hold on to the cold the longest in my immediate vicinity. I wouldn't be surprised to end up with a decent ice covering of the snow from freezing rain with minimal melting near the very end when temps climb up to maybe 33 or 34 before the cold starts to rush back in.

GFS ensemble snow map is a full 50% pullback of amounts from yesterday's morning maps. MDT from 6" down to 3". For me I just keep saying that any event that covers up the grass, which takes roughly 2", is a "decent" snowfall. It would be nice to get more, though, since we're going to get the cold following the storm to preserve the snow pack for quite a few days afterwards. This morning's NAM run will go out to 0Z Sunday, so we should get a hint of where that model is taking things till 7:00pm Saturday evening.

Yep. 5-7" for MDT. Lock it in now!

Quick update at 12:40am I'm now down to 62.2 and have recorded 0.10" of rainfall. The winds did pick up and were quite active for about 15 minutes as the rain arrived, but my gusts were only in the low 30's. I had multiple gusts of 30 and 31 with one max gust of 32mph. They have quieted down considerably over the last 10 minutes and are now averaging 5-10 with some gusts to 15.

Ok, the midnight obs are in and MDT has risen to 69 degrees which sets a new record for the 12th. There's still a tiny bit of time for them to maybe touch 70 briefly before the rain arrives. My temp peaked at 68.0 degrees around 11:30pm and has now begun to fall back as the rain has just begun here. Down to 65.7 after starting the day off at 66.9 at midnight. Also, CXY has gone up another degree and is now 72!!!