CarlislePaWx

It even tacks on another 0.5" at the end for 9.5" total. Not too shabby. Haven't looked at what's going on during the changeover.

Tomorrow night 2", Saturday afternoon 7". Total 9" using Kuchera. We have improvement.

Well one encouraging sign is that there is a great mega thump in the first six hours of the storm with MDT picking up over 6" in 6 hours before a changeover. Wasn't expecting that.

What about if it's <2" snow AND 6" of sleet !? Jim just alluded to the point that the map might be starting to look like the VD 2007 sleetfest.

Daxx...you might be up doing the PBP by yourself later...lol. Don't feel obligated on our part, especially while on vacation!

Crazyweatherguy (from twitter) said this morning that is was foolish to be watching the models for the weekend storm BEFORE tomorrow morning's runs. It's ridiculous the roller coaster ride of these models.

NAM is showing less than 0.10" total qpf. That's drier than earlier runs. Not that I care whether I get 1" or 2" with the prospect of the weekend storm. One other thing I remembered about noteworthy sleet storms in my life. The 1993 superstorm was a huge sleet producer for me in north Jersey. After accumulating 13" of snow there was heavy heavy sleet for hours. Had to be 6" of sleet from that storm easily.

They must be. When I saw that large area of plain rain I really thought that was it for me. Maybe not...yet.

LOL...would beat out VD 2007 for biggest sleet storm of my life.

Holy moly....I just saw that map. Yeah...must be a ton of sleet to reach over a foot on the snow map. Wow.

Unless the GFS pulls a switch-er-oo with the NAM I think I'll pass on the Euro tonight also.

Nam is drier with system tomorrow night. Total qpf < 0.10"

Ok daxx, while having dinner with my wife I informed her that I likely would be staying up for the Euro again tonight. She said do whatever you must...I'm just a "WWW". WWW = Weather Weenie Widow

So at the moment we have 2 camps to choose from: UKIE + Euro + Icon + Nam + JMA = White or GFS = Wet I know which camp I'm in.

Well I'd say collectively we're all doing much better than we were 24 hours ago. We have all the models heading in the general direction of a more frozen solution with the potential for less mixing heading progressively further south and away from us. Next question will be does the next GFS also head in the NAM direction??

Dramatic reversal after the 0Z rainstorm last night...almost back to the original snowier solution. Easier to see here on the zoom in...

OMG>>>I literally was crying with laughter over your story, Mike. The part that kept cracking me up the most were the comments from Canderson about the wind! Didn't he just make a post a few days ago about how a 50mph wind gust must have just come through and blew a huge trash dumpster down the street? SO FUNNY!!! Thanks for the laughs again.

Thanks, Mike. Great story. I remember cracking up bigtime the day you posted that. It was hilarious. Regarding CAD...I have lived here about 5 miles south of the base of Blue Mountain for the past 7 years and I will say that boy can I hold on to the cold up until the very last minute. It really comes down to how soon the winds mix the warmer air aloft down to the surface. In many ZR events the time of the ZR has very little wind activity. Usually as the event begins to wind down do the winds pick up and then my temp can shoot up very quickly. MDT many times can be 10 degrees warmer than me in CAD events where I'm 31 and they're 41. Microclimates are also exciting to observe all around, and each of us is our own representative of one.

Am I remembering from 2 days ago...it's Erik? Or are you one of the 4 Mike's? Haha. What was your previous handle? I'm having a hard time getting used to you being Itstrainingtime. You know I wasn't trying to argue with you about Horst. I know his reputation is incredibly high and deservedly so. I think we all keep swinging back and forth on the emotional pendulum. It's just part of the realities of being wx weenies; particularly those of us who are getting a tad "older". At least I don't have to think about the big "six-oh" for another 9 months. The one thing I was amazed about regarding the 2 snowfall maps of the UKIE and Euro was that both models had me in the exact same contour...the 12-14". I'm in no way expecting this...at least not yet. But it's really nice to see two major models producing almost identical results for the time being.

Enormous thanks, and what dedication to be doing this while on vaca. A true weenie. See you tonight.

Doesn't that look almost exactly like the UKIE map? Wow.

Well...sounds promising for little to no melting of whatever snow we get. Locking in the snow with a nice layer of ice is a great way to keep the overall snowcover anyway.

So not a substantial change overall to 0Z solution?

One of those had to include November 1950. Would have loved to have been around to witness that storm. Newark (NJ) airport had sustained hurricane force winds for 12 hours with torrential rain.

Thanks. It helps to realize that he really is focused on Lancaster/MU vicinity with his discussions. Residing 50 miles west helps. Actually, his verbiage still leaves the door open to sway towards more frozen or freezing at this early point.