CarlislePaWx

Ahh. Got 'ya. I will keep it free and wait...for either it or for your commentary...lol.

Where are you accessing the ICON? I'm on TT. Sounds like you are elsewhere if you are out to the storm#2 timeframe.

Hmm...only out to 75. Got a ways to go yet. It gives 1 to 2 for us Thursday night.

As of now, even the "warm" GFS isn't sending temps into the 40's and obliterating the previous snow. The LSV goes up to 34, maybe 35 tops before the bottom falls out. Rain falling on snow with a temp of 34 is not going to obliterate the new snowpack. The GFS is also notorious for warming things up too much at the surface. I'm about to see what the ICON is showing for storm #2 and will report back. It's been consistently colder, and now along with its next door neighbor the UKIE.

0Z ICON shows a real thumping of snow late Saturday afternoon until wee-hours followed by a brief but heavy period of freezing rain for several hours, then a quick switch back to light snow and ending before noon. There doesn't appear to be a 2-wave solution so far but I could easily be misreading it. Temps never get close to freezing during the freezing rain portion...they're in the mid 20's before falling off dramatically behind the arctic front. >>Edit>>I forgot to mention that it also shows single digit lows near zero Monday morning and sub zero down to -5F at MDT Tuesday morning as a large 1040 High is centered directly over PA 12Z Tuesday.

I'm pretty sure he meant that tongue-and-cheek to tease Voyager.

Apparently you just read his mind as he just posted.

I know bubbler just posted the map with the polar vortex paying us a visit...but really, you guys should go do a loop of either the gfs or gfsv3 18Z runs for 2M temps. They are insanely cold...particularly days 10 through 15. Daytime highs at MDT below +10 and nights below zero...well below until it reaches 13 below at the end of the run. This type of cold will exceed Jan 2015 cold IMO. Of course, throw in a few snowstorms to deepen the snowpack and you've got the recipe for 1994.

The best times to see significant backend events are when a sharpening trough with true arctic air are racing into the area. The speed at which the cold air is advecting in Sunday morning is incredibly rapid. There's a 20 degree temperature drop from 35 to 15 in 6 hours!! I'm definitely no expert. But, I have seen a few really good backend events and the real juicy ones have the arctic air rushing in with the wave.

And here is the 18Z GFS for the totals of storm#1 and #2 (...note...does not look like a ton of rain to me...)

Not before depositing 2" of snow to MDT.

18Z ICON is colder on storm#1 vs. 12Z. This morning it showed the precip changing over to non-frozen before ending Friday morning (over LSV). 18Z now keeps LSV totally snow start to finish.

Now that I've had a chance to look at the ICON...which only goes out to 180 every 12 hours and to 120 the off hours...when comparing last night's 0Z run to this morning's 12Z there was a substantial improvement in the amount of frozen precip from the storm. Last night gave a few inches followed by a fair amount of rain then ending as minor snow. This morning it goes into snow and snows gangbusters for a decent chunk of the storm. It does go over to either rain or freezing rain for a while as the storm makes its closest approach, then ends as minor snow. Very nice run to see and to add to watching throughout this week.

And not during a storm, no-less. It helps when you're retired and have nothing else to do but sit with the laptop on your lap and drink coffee.

The ice was everywhere and there was a TON of it. All the sidewalks solid ice. You couldn't walk on anything. On all the trees. Lots of damaged trees from such weight. Easily the worst ice storm of my lifetime.

Ditto. Biggest example of that was an incredible ice storm in January of 1994...about 10 days before the all-time record cold that hit these parts. I was in northern NJ for it but I experienced the same thing. Heavy freezing rain with a temperature of 16 degrees F! My friend who lived up in the extreme NW corner of NJ (High Point) had freezing rain and a temp of +4 F !!! Truly unbelievable, but for real.

If you mean that in a negative way it doesn't look that bad. MDT gets 2.5" from the clipper and then 7" from the weekend event for a multi-storm total of 9.5". Maybe not a blockbuster but pretty good still.

Well...it is nice to see I am younger than some in this forum...lol! Regarding that map, that's yesterday's 12Z. Do we have the overnight 0Z map? The one that supposedly gives us rain and 50? I don't believe that scenario for one minute, btw.

Looks like the ICON is a LR model goes out to 180 from quick view. That's great. The Germans are very particular with everything they do. That should also apply to weather modeling.

Cool. Thanks guys. What are your opinions on this model overall versus Euro and GFS?

Is ICON available on a public website or just subscription? What's the URL?

What model is the ICON and how seriously can we trust it? Is it a new model? Seriously, I don't know what it is.

Well I'm semi-anxiously waiting for the GFS to reach 120-144 to see if heartache is about to set in or not...lol

Great! I'm helping to pull other lurkers out of the woodwork. That's a good thing.