CarlislePaWx

On to the UKIE and Euro...

GFS @ MDT 2" tomorrow night. 3-4" front thump before changeover. That's it for my PBP...lol. I like what cranky had to say. We have to fight as hard as we can to not be emotionally invested in every model run...this far away still at least.

GFS throws surface back up to 40 at MDT at its warmest. It throws 32 line well up into northern PA. Throw it out!

Well, now I have to "try" to go to bed and lay there waiting for my meds to overcome all this excitement. What a day this was. Hopefully tomorrow is not the same rollercoaster. It will be very interesting to hear Horst's interpretation after declaring a major rainstorm (for Lanco vicinity) was coming. I'm not ratting on him. Just curious to see how much of a believer he is in tonight's new data. See you all in the morning. Thanks again, daxx!

He wasn't correcting you. He was correcting superstorm's 1055. Gotta admit when I saw that I thought a 1055 would crush a storm and send it down to Florida.

YODA!!! I can't believe you stopped by and posted here. It's such an honor. Stop in any time. We don't bite.

HAHA!! Love it. Glad I stayed up and can go to bed happy...for this night at least.

1055mb is around 31.15"

Over us or just somewhere in the US?

Haha...identical mindsets it would seem.

But for this run, not a soaking plain rain solution!! YAY...haha

wow....after a day filled with so many negatives it's great to end it with multiple positives...all the major models have improved it would seem.

standing by...actually, sitting by while eating cereal...

Well...you might have convinced me. Besides, I just realized I forgot to take my meds (3 hours ago) that help me sleep! I'll go pop them and most likely come back for the show. HaHa

there you are! I figured you might be interested in this run given the sudden improvement in the GFS. We still have the UKIE and its solution. I will thank you in advance for your dedicated efforts, however I will have to partake in the AM. BTW, what time do you estimate the euro would be out to the storm timeframe? I don't think I can force myself to stay up much longer even though I'm a night person.

I think daxx is someone who can do it but I have no idea if he's around. I'm just about ready to head off for the night. I can wait for either the disappointment or jubilation in the morning...lol. I'll know by the number of new unread posts.

Sub-500 HEIGHTS over us...incredibly rare. That would translate to thicknesses below 480 which easily would rival Jan 1994 cold. Daytime highs would remain below zero in our area if that depiction were to come true. Unbelievable.

Are you referring to the first wave as the Thursday night system or what was to be 2 waves within the weekend storm?

Well, now it will be very interesting to see how the next UKMET plays out for sure.

The arctic air will have something to say about just how far west the low cuts. Regardless of how the start and middle of the storm play out it will be very interesting to see what happens as the arctic plunge rushes in fast and furious. There has to be at least a little snow to accumulate at the end.

Hey Blizz...you're about to hit your first forum milestone. I'm only 5 posts behind you so we'll both hit it tonight most likely. So congrats to both of us! I was wondering what JB has had to say about the weekend setup. Is there anything you are able to share with us from him?

Until the UKIE and ICON completely abandon their snow>ZR>end scenarios I am siding with you (nut) and not giving up hope for a more frozen solution. Like you said a decent snow over to zr then ending without it ever going to plain rain is totally acceptable. As others have said, the zr coating locks in the cold and slows down the melting process tremendously.

bubbler posted this map earlier but on the total US view. Here it is zoomed in to our region.

That sounds reasonable to me. And...even if we lose out on this weekend I think we're going into a pretty exciting period with arctic air to play with and storm potentials.

'cmon bubbler...isn't it just a tad early to actually believe that the final outcome of an event more than 120 hours away is currently a lock? There are so many more runs to go. You know the drill with this. It's a roller coaster and you'll drive yourself insane by deciding the outcome of a storm 5+ days out is a lock. Like nut said, what happens with Thursday night's storm will have an effect on the Saturday storm. Plus, as long as we have some models out there saying more frozen than liquid, we can hold out hope.