CarlislePaWx

Storm ob...temp 30.0, dp 21 with a dusting on the board. Steady, light snow falling at the moment.

Hey blizz...good call on your part. They've added the remaining LSV counties to the WWA. Now we don't have to throw stones at the river to see more than 2". Love seeing the "snow may be heavy at times" verbiage in my point n click tomorrow afternoon and night. My point n click range of total accumulation is now 4" - 10". I've got 1-3, 1-3, then 2-4. I can just about guarantee that my forecast will verify....haha.

First few flakes finally beginning here. Temp 31.5. DP 17. Let the games begin.

Haha...that's why I said "technically", which is a correct statement. Isn't the county line on the west bank of the river?

Technically you are not under an advisory. Cumberland county is not in the advisory but Dauphin is.

Yeah, they're not expecting more than 2" (in most of the southern 1/3) which is the level over which it's issued.

Why don't we have winter storm watches out yet for Monday night/ Tuesday? The expected combination of snowfall and ice accretion should easily meet WSW criteria. Unless they are going with a watch in the afternoon package and then an upgrade to warning tomorrow morning?

Quick update for MDT from Fv3: only 0.3" tomorrow night, then 4.5" Monday night. Will be interesting to see whether the GFS's or the NAM's win the snow war for tomorrow night's snow. pretty significant difference with about 0.5" from GFS but nearly 3" from NAM by 12Z Monday.

I'd love to give a definitive answer but I don't know for sure. Maybe MAG can answer when reads this. Sounds reasonable to me, though.

Well, I'm sort of wrong about the 3K. It also is much better than its prior runs. It now gives us a total through 7AM Tues of 4.5" at MDT. A quick look at the temps (at MDT at 12Z Tues, using the 3K data) has a surface temp of -1, 850 @ -3. The zero line at 850 is just crossing the M/D line. It also shows that somewhere between the surface and 500mb there is a temp of +2C which is the warmest temp in the column, but it's not at the surface, or 850, or 700. It must be between the surface and 850. I'll assume it's around 925mb. That would tell me that it likely would still be snowing (rimed?) since I don't think you could melt snow completely at 925 and refreeze it to sleet in a distance of 3000 feet, or could you? The chart shows no freezing rain accumulating through 12Z Tues, which is the current end of its run.

You beat me to the punch. 0Z Nam drastic improvement in the snow department. Mainly with the Monday night into Tuesday event. It was saying around 2" of snow tomorrow night with less than 0.5" for Monday night. Now this run gives 3" tomorrow night and 4" Monday night. WOW! I'll bet 3K doesn't look like this when it's out.

Here's something else I wanted to mention. The barometric pressure over us today reached 30.71" or 1040mb. You can consider this anecdotal coming from me, or not, but I have observed numerous occasions over the years when a significant CAD event / ice storm has occurred within 48-72 hours of the unusually high pressure. Something to consider as we look at Tuesday.

You're welcome. I could make a lot more comments but like many others here I think if the weather isn't giving us at least hope for something to track in the short to med range it's easy to just say nothing. Here's something I think many of us would agree with. For me, posts are like a drug fix. I'm always anticipating that the next time I sit down at my computer I will bring up the forum page (which is in a tab that's always opened...lol) and check for new messages. When it says there are new posts there's that brief rush of excitement and anticipation over what the content will be. The results can further induce the high, or can bring you down really quick. If a really long time has gone without any posts, like say 12 hours, that can induce depression. So, with that theme in mind, I can easily say that Blizz, bubbler, and Mag are the primary "dealers" around here with nut not far behind.

Yeah, thanks to both you and bubbler for your updates and interpretations. Very much appreciated!!! Based on Horst I would say that for me I'll be seeing a fair amount of freezing rain on Tuesday. Perfect CAD trap for me.

NWS disco always said that the focus of the really heavy stuff (1"+) was confined mainly to the NW 1/2 of CTP's CWA. That would exclude the LSV. (How's that for the use of abbreviations?? lol)

This forum's activity has also epically collapsed. Who can fill us in on today's 12Z Euro for next week's storm?

What's nice (for at least one run) is that both GFS's give us a 6+ storm in the Tue-Wed timeframe. This concurs with the earlier Euro storm I think. I'm still recovering from the 66-degree high temperature I had here today. And to think, just 2 1/2 days ago it was zero here.

Made it 65.5 as of 3:25pm. That's looking like the will be the high for the day as it's back down to 64.6. Great day to air out the house, though. Fresh air outside smells great. Just think, tomorrow at this time it will be about 25 degrees colder with rain. Isn't that a pleasant thought??

You meant 77 on the 20th. Pretty sure the 79 on the 21st was a record.

Ok I checked and it was February 20 and 21st, so the second half of the month. My station recorded a high of 81.5 degrees on the 21st!

I am exactly 10 degrees warmer right now (54.3) than I was precisely at this time yesterday morning. My high yesterday ended up at 58. If we keep the sunshine all day long I wonder if upper sixties is possible? Remember last February? We had that mini 2-day heat wave (record breaking at MDT) with temps in the upper 70's? Not sure of the dates but it occurred in the first half of the month I'm pretty sure. Will have to go check. Glad to see we have early next week to start focusing on. Until then enjoy this beautiful spring-like warmth. I'm airing out my house by opening some windows for a while...haha.

Just shy of the (50) mark at 49.8 degrees after a low of 15.8. Got a 35-degree diurnal going now. Feels great and the sun feels warm.

Here's something you don't see very often... At 10:00PM it's 21 degrees at MDT while it's 36 at UNV and 39 at AOO !!!

Well, nice to see a little excitement in these past few hours. I think none of us reached our forecast high temp for this afternoon. I was forecast to reach 37 and peaked out at 32.2 degrees. That stopped my continuous sub-freezing streak at 119 hours, which is a pretty good duration. I kept hoping it wouldn't go above 32.0...lol...and then it did for like 10 minutes and then dropped back down. I'd have another 16 to 18 hours to add on to the streak if it went until tomorrow morning. Very little snow melted here as well and I have total cover still, albeit maybe an inch or two. The snow started out with such an incredible chill (lows near zero this morning) that it made it pretty tough to melt anything with a temp right at 32.

Have the latest Euro weeklies changed their minds in any meaningful way? They have been showing February (the entire month) to be the greatest negative departure from normal on temps for the past 2 months with no change that I'm aware of, at least as of last weekend. Can anyone post the current and forecast PNA, AO, NAO, and MJO phase?? We need data (those of us who don't have easy access to it)...lol.