CarlislePaWx

Hi guys again. Back up. My temp unfortunately has just gone above 32 to reach 32.2F, thus ending the potential for freezing rain (more or less). However, there has definitely been sleet. My wife shoveled a little bit of our front sidewalk back around 8:00 and it is currently covered in sleet (it's white). I was initially thinking it had snowed again but then I opened the door and heard the pinging. I'd say there had to be at least 0.3" of sleet to make the walk look white. I'm going to add that to my snow totals. The pinging is picking back up again. I hear it from inside.

Well, just got up (early, haha, not a morning person except for snowstorms) to take an observation. Definitely disappointed to see freezing rain falling with a temp of 30.2. I actually dropped to 29.0 during the night which must have been during a heavier period of snow. Measured 2.5" on the board including a light iced coating from the zr. Add that to my 1.7" from round 1 and my total snowfall from both rounds was 4.2". With the changeover to freezing rain already here it's time to see how long we hold on to temps below 32.0. For now I'm going back to bed. See you in a couple of hours.

Unfortunately I agree with you, but let's see how it plays out. The HRRR seemed to imply that there would be a heavy burst of snow over the MDT region around 12Z just before the change to sleet moved in. It keeps us as all snow for another 7 hours. There is still time for the hole to fill back in and snow to redevelop before the transition begins. I just took my midnight ob and measured 1.5" of new snow on the board which gives me a storms total of 3.2". It's still snowing light to moderately, less than 0.5"/hr. Temp hasn't budged for the last 4 hours, sitting at 30.6 degrees. I'll be back in the morning with an update. Good luck to all overnight.

Thanks for the maps! Looks like they pretty much match up. RAP looks a bit more generous UNV/Central otherwise about the same. The single heaviest hour during the entire period gave me only 0.5" so it's kind of nickel and diming our way there overnight.

Can we rely on the HRRR during the event for expectations? That may sound like a silly question which has an obvious answer. I would assume "yes", and, "that's what that model is made for." If that is the case then the 01Z run is giving me 5" of snow and 0.17" of ZR. I'll take it! BTW, it still has my surface temp at 32F at 0Z Wed. By then the storm is nearly over. Meanwhile, the 3km 0Z NAM wants to run a huge dry slot all through central PA during a good chunk of tomorrow. Wonder how that will turn out???

I'm missing out on the heavier stuff. The greens went south of me this morning. They're north of me now, this evening. Best I've got is dark blue but even staying in that has been a challenge. Currently, temp is 30.7, almost moderate snow falling with 0.8" new snow on the board (round 2), 2.5" storms total.

...which ended when?

Temp finally back down to 32.0. My board has a whopping dusting on it. Sidewalks and roads just wet. Right now I have a steady but pretty light snow falling.

I predict that that line will be squashed southward below the M/D line once the heavier rates arrive.

The totals in the current forecast do not include what fell last night into this morning. Their current snowfall projection maps indicate a start time of this afternoon. Also, it is very likely that LSV is into the change / mixed precip before or by 12Z Tuesay (7:00AM). So you are basically looking at the next 12 to 14 hours for accumulating snowfall to reach projected amounts. Sun needs to set and rates need to pick up to drop temp below 32. I'm currently sitting at 32.9 and have been above freezing for the past 5 hours. Peaked at 33.7 before dropping back down. My 1.8" of snow from overnight has melted to less than 1/2 remaining.

From sunset until at least midnight it's going to be pure snow for everyone. Should be a fun evening. Just look at all that juicy, heavy precip rolling along the M/D line getting ready to shift north this afternoon.

And the warning runs until 6:00pm tomorrow instead of ending at noon now. They bumped up the ice to up to 0.2" for the warning counties so it appears they believe the freezing rain is going to last longer now.

For clarification, are we going to keep giving our event(s) total for our measurements? It looks like that is what you have done here. Your 3.3" is the total since last night? Otherwise my board is cleared and I'm ready to start over from zero.

We're flirting with the northern fringe of the precip shield at the moment, so we seem to start and stop. Same thing happening to me here.

Both have seemingly been MIA for the past week at least. Hope all is ok with them.

Looking at the wide radar it looks like perhaps storm 1 is still over us and leading edge of storm 2 is out in eastern OH entering western PA. But, who really cares since any echoes over us right now will produce snow! lol

Morning all... Looks like I've got 1.7" total on the board for the storm 1 event. Had 0.8" at midnight followed by another 0.9" up to the present. It is still snowing very lightly, not enough to accumulate, but it still looks pretty against the woods backdrop of my backyard along with the birds. Well, no warning, which seems a bit odd given that the criteria for a warning is 5"+ in 12 hours or 8"+ in 24 hours. I think they're gun-shy from the previous bust. Time will tell. The radar looks like Franklin, Adams, York, and Lanco counties are getting hit pretty good right now from early storm 2.

Final storm ob of the night...temp 28.4, dp 25. Light to moderate fine snow falling. 0.7" on the board. Talk to you all in the AM when there definitely should be WSW's (warnings) flying all over CTP.

On top of 6" of snow. That ice pack will take a while to melt even with temps in the 40's at the end of the week. Thanks for the clarification on the timing of the layers, etc. Basically it's nearly all snow until close to dawn Tuesday, followed by change to sleet for 6 hours, followed by change to freezing rain for another six hours, ending as drizzle before midnight.

The "impression" you get from NWS point n click is that another quarter to half inch of "liquid" falls in the overnight period. I think that part is totally bogus and the storm is like you said, some light showers. I guess I'm just picking apart what it says, which I think gives the impression that a fair amount of liquid rain is going to fall Tuesday evening and overnight.

Well, one thing is very interesting and that is the 3km NAM keeps MDT at or below 0 (surface) until 3Z Wed and by then it shows the precip has ended, implying little to no actual liquid rain falls.

Understood the first sentence but not quite sure what you meant in the second with 500's. Your snow map does not look like the pivotal map I just looked at:

Yeah, I had the wrong hour selected. The HRRR is still below zero all levels 12Z Tues, the 3km is +1, the 12km is +2 column maxes at MDT. That's still really good in the temp department even if the mix has kicked in by then. Will be interesting to keep watching the HRRR to see if it delays or speeds up the timing of crossing above zero Tuesday morning.

On Pivotal, the NAM and the HRRR at 12Z Tues show the entire column from surface up to 500 at -1 or colder. That would imply that it's still snowing at 7AM I would think.

I have noticed that the older 12km NAM grossly overdoes freezing rain on the Pivotal maps. If it's out go look at 3km NAM and see how much it has. Meanwhile I love the fact that the HRRR still has all of us pure snow (LSV) even up to 5AM Tues. Even the TT Nam map shows it only just going over to sleet at that time. Overall, that is a much later time for the mix to be developing than the timing in our grid forecasts, which I think show sleet mixing in by midnight.