Terpeast

Honestly I’d have preferred it to shift west so they could phase and bring down enough cold air for it to snow.

And I don’t see any potential for wintry weather until VDay and beyond. My target was Feb 10-12 a week or so ago, and this is the first sign of a can kick, even if its by just a few days. Clock is ticking. Think I was right to revise my snowfall forecast. Another minor/moderate event might get us to the low end of my forecast. Otherwise it will be a bust. Hope I’m wrong, but things seem to be trending that way.

If the temp issues don’t get resolved soon, this may just be the perfect track rainstorm that goes into PSU’s logbook (and I’m one of those who don’t think Jan 7 really qualifies) Still time.

Eh, just loop back a few runs and they’re all vastly different. Models have zero clue how to handle this block right now

Yep just saw that. This is not done changing yet.

Something to keep in mind about model performance thus far this winter when tracking patterns/threats in Feb: https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/headlines/acc_31days/ GFS not doing well this year. Euro the best, with Ukie and Canadian very close behind

We’ll see with 0z nam 3k, but I think this one is DOA

Same, 1.6” total

18z gfs - similar sfc map for feb 4-6, but big changes on h5. Large scale trends are yet to come

Good catch! I didn’t notice it

I was once up in western NY with 3-4 feet of snow already on the ground, and we got a decent but brief snow squall. I tried to pretend for a moment that it had just snowed 40 inches in one day… but it just didn’t feel the same as a homemade snowstorm.

No changes

ULL is west on 12z EPS, still quashes the ss wave but getting closer to a phase. If this is a new trend, we’ll want to keep it going to get them phased. But like Heisy said, large scale changes are still likely to happen

CMC doesn’t have ensemble support GEFS sticking with the suppressed idea, but are north of the op Op euro 12z same as 0z, but no confidence because it moved the TPV 1,500 miles from yesterday’s 12z We’ll see what the EPS has to say I did notice something though. In order for feb 4-6 to work for us, we need that omega block to close off into a rex block. Rather than an open block that crushes everything east of it, if we have a closed upper high over S Canada, that might give the ss wave extra room to come north.

Yeah, we just need part of that TPV to phase with the ss wave. That’s the path to victory on Feb 4-6 My gut feel is that other models will come north

And if it’s going to come directly from the NW, that really wouldn’t work for mby. Due west? Maybe - its happened before plenty.

GFS miss to the south as well, lol

Thinking it’d be a west of 15 special. East of 15 marginal unless it falls at night or early AM

Yeah, I understand where you’re coming from now. I may not agree 100% completely, but I hear what you’re saying. It would have been great if the nao block that led to the 1 week of wintry weather sustained itself longer to keep us colder longer, giving us a chance for another hit or two instead of torching to 70s the other day. It was kind of surprising how quickly that block broke down. And considering that the second storm could have been much bigger had it not been for a lead wave that tamped things down for the second wave. But we did have that wintry week, something we haven’t seen in so long, and the pattern ensembles+weeklies have been spitting out for Feb is way better and has a ton more upside for a bigger hit. One look at those maps and I’m thinking, “someone is going to get walloped. Pummeled. Obliterated.” Not saying it will actually happen, or that it’ll come down in one big hammer. It could be a few moderate events spread out over a month. It could be a miss to the south. It could be a mixed event. As CAPE would say, we just can’t know yet. You’re not liking what your gut feeling is telling you (and you could be right). I, otoh, see more upside in the coming pattern than we’ve seen all winter, that one wintry week included. Keep posting, Bob. We all value your input!

Gotcha, thanks. I do like what I see coming up ahead, the only thing missing is the NAO. I do want to see that get stronger by mid Feb, so we’ll see

Normally I love your insights, but this time I’m not quite getting where you’re coming from. I don’t see a can kick and the ensembles are in lockstep with a more favorable pattern by Feb 12-15, with a shot at a trackable event in the Feb 3-6 timeframe. Am I missing something that you’ve caught onto?

Yeah the 60 degree dewpoints really did a number on us, even though it was pretty transient

Yeah, that’s the main thing - this is not a pig SER standing wave stuck in there as we’d see in a nina. It’s a transient ridge between waves. Completely typical

The one-day torch is over. Good thing it wasn’t for weeks upon weeks. Back to vanilla AN airmass in the 40s, and back to near normal by tomorrow

Funny how the NYC forum completely disregarded the most wintry 10 day period we had down here in years only because DC hit 80 degrees for one day. Just one day! Talk about warminista cherry picking lol