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Terpeast

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    Split them down the middle, and account for temps, perhaps 3-5" for us and 4-8"+ DC and northeast
  2. Terpeast
    Yeah the ratios probably won't be 10:1. I'd probably go with 70% of that
  3. Terpeast
    qpf/snow ticked up (or west) with 6z gefs
  4. Terpeast
    Well this is Maestro's storm, so maybe it is really happening!
  5. Terpeast
    GEFS more interaction in the mean between ns and ss out west at 30
  6. Terpeast
    I think gfs and euro camps are starting to meet in the middle. Hopefully the middle is as beefy in qpf as this
  7. Terpeast
    foot plus for dc metro, more towards the bay and delmarva (2 feet) I'd mentally cut those amounts by 20-30% considering daytime snow and temps.
  8. Terpeast
    Very nick tuck. northern Delmarva gets the goods
  9. Terpeast
    Looks maybe a few hours faster
  10. Terpeast
    Just reviewed the overnight runs, looks like mostly a hold, or at least similar to 12z yesterday. 18z was the high bar. Hoping to see more of a consensus today...
  11. Terpeast
    If it were up to me, tomorrow midday after 12z runs come in would probably be a good time to issue watches (if they’re still showing what they are now). One thing going for NWS is that this storm doesn’t happen during commute, at least until it’s over New England
  12. Terpeast
    Gefs basically a hold at 72, looks good
  13. Terpeast
    My sister is flying in the next day to visit me and my kids. So…
  14. Terpeast
    Gefs 66 neg tilt, sfc looks the same, ass hair west
  15. Terpeast
    Gefs to 60, ss vort sharper
  16. Terpeast
    0z gefs NS vort separates a bit by backing off, while southern vort amps a bit. Let’s see
  17. Terpeast
    I don’t envy their jobs right now that’s for sure
  18. Terpeast
    Not sure how others are seeing a tick east. Noise level changes in SLP position and precip shield (the extent, not amounts) has actually expanded west i’m more worried about bigger changes at h5 before storm formation
  19. Terpeast
    Definitely a different path to the promised land. It almost looked like it was gonna miss the phase and cave spectacularly, but it still somehow spun up a more miller A like coastal (or miller a/b hybrid)
  20. Terpeast
    Just need a better phase. It’s close
  21. Terpeast
    As you probably know, hrrr isn’t comparable with the globals because it isn’t a global model. But same goes for the nam, which we do pbp on anyway
  22. Terpeast
    Seems euro made a bigger move west than the gfs moved east. Maybe they meet in the middle and give us 6-10”. That would be nice
  23. Terpeast
    More neg tilt at h5 with precip axis further west from 12z
  24. Terpeast
    Now we just need it to deepen at our latitude
  25. Terpeast
    18z euro trying to phase at 45
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