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Terpeast

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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    On 87, i like the ns wave better
  2. Terpeast
    Not sure its gonna do it this time, but we’re looking for a step in the right direction. Not sure yet
  3. Terpeast
    But there seems to be more of a “connection” with the energy over nova scotia, which may not be what we want. But it could be nothing
  4. Terpeast
    This says a lot about where they really think the storm track is going to be.
  5. Terpeast
    Oh definitely. It's a high risk high reward one. Most likely we get little or nothing, but a flush hit? Oh boy
  6. Terpeast
    Just checked the euro AI models, they've been windshield wipering the past 3-4 runs. I think the models will need at least a couple of days to get a better handle on this. It may not happen in the next run.
  7. Terpeast
    The key thing to watch on the Euro for the next runs is we need the 500mb s/w to dig WEST over Minnesota at valid time 00z Jan 30. The 12z euro didn't dig that as far west as 6z did, and hence the result. So when watching for trends, watch the 500mb vorticity over the Minnesota/Wisconsin/upper lakes.
  8. Terpeast
    So as we can see, there are 3 main scenarios/clusters - 1) way OTS fish storms, no one gets anything except maybe cape cod gets clipped, 2) storm tracks from OBX NNE with some tucks/scrapers, 3) miller B esque storms bombing out too late for us.
  9. Terpeast
    If anything, 12z EPS is similar to 0z.
  10. Terpeast
    Means went east, but there is stronger clustering of SLPs further south just off OBX than the previous run. I'd say its noise at this point and wait until 0z tonight to make any prescriptive statements on where this is going.
  11. Terpeast
    Recent storm, we were in the bulls eye or just north of it before the D4 "model reshuffle" (yes I'm coining that phrase). This time let's reshuffle this into us being the bulls eye!
  12. Terpeast
    Can't take credit for that gif, someone else made it and I replied to it. But yeah... that is heckuva trend!
  13. Terpeast
    That's stormtracker's job to say FOLKS, he must be exhausted from tracking the last storm. That's the word for the 6z Euro!
  14. Terpeast
    Yes, that and how the ridge is oriented. Right now it's a bit too east and tilted east up top
  15. Terpeast
    Looks like the trough/sw is backing west, eliminating some OTS possibilities. But we'll just have to see how far west it backs until they hone into something that's close to a solution. The storm yesterday - the NS wave and the phase kept backing west for days, and for a couple days it was at the sweet spot for us, and then it still kept backing west.
  16. Terpeast
    12/5: 1.5” 12/14: 1.0” 1/1: 0.2” 1/17: 0.3” 1/25: 9.5” (5.5 sn 4.0 ip) Total: 12.5”
  17. Terpeast
    This was an exhausting storm to track
  18. Terpeast
    How they roll I guess. Assuming they just stuck a ruler in the ground close to the river.
  19. Terpeast
    Yes that’s correct. Apply usual snowboard measuring rules except in this case you measure at the flip, then add the snow + sleet totals
  20. Terpeast
    DCA 6.8 IAD 7.8 Spotter in Ashburn reported 9.8”, which is consistent with my 9.5” so that’s good to see I’m measuring it right Edit: ninja’ed by George BM
  21. Terpeast
    I wouldn’t sleep on this one. Right now ridge and trough axis too far east, but we said the same thing about today’s threat being too suppressed. Lots of time for things to change for better or worse.
  22. Terpeast
    On top of what we got today? If that panned out, counties might as well give up on make up days and people are gonna go stir crazy haha
  23. Terpeast
    Another inch of sleet had fallen since my last 8.5” measurement. Back edge about to clear my area. Calling it 9.5” total, 5.5” snow 4.0” sleet. Crazy storm
  24. Terpeast
    Tbh I was surprised the sleet line blew past us all the way to Harrisburg PA given the arctic airmass we got. I figured the DMV would mix so I gave them 4-8” with 6-10 in the NW suburbs, which seems to have done okay. But I didn’t have southern PA going to sleet just a couple hours after we did!
  25. Terpeast
    Credit where its due - 3k NAM got the thermals right, timed the changeover quite well. Whiffed on pre-flip qpf though.
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