Terpeast
-
Posts
6,622 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Terpeast
-
Soundings have us at 33-34 at 18z tomorrow. Other runs/models were 35-37
-
Thats what the western suburbs need! Slp is 10-20 miles NW but the precip shield is way west and heavier because of better H5 as you showed in your pbp
-
More energy from trailing vort sucked into the main one
-
Yeah, it doesn’t match climatology of past storms like this.
-
I would adjust bmore up to 7” and also winchester is probably way too low
-
-
Nice! I can see something like this happening if the lows tuck west and throws the ccb further west into nova/81. Let’s see if 18z/0z models start showing this
-
That’s how I would do it. It’s not a 3” fluffy powder WWA type of event. It’s a 4”+ heavy dripping wet slush that will weigh down trees and limbs and power lines.
-
If they turn out to be correct (which is unlikely but not impossible), we could get the CCB all the way to 81
-
We may well get pummeled with that if lucky. Even if not, euro was a great shift in our favor
-
Not what we wanted to see, but still maybe a 2-4er instead of 3-6er, and there’s always the norlun possibility
-
The February 22-23 Late Season Miracle: JV Disco/Banter Thread
Terpeast replied to bncho's topic in Mid Atlantic
I like your thinking. Historic or even double digit totals were never really in the cards for the DMV and west. It was shown on maybe 1-2 runs mostly on the gfs. The bulls eye was always constantly east/NE of us. -
I’m thinking 3-6” in VA/DMV east of 15 towards I-95, high end if caught under norlun banding.
-
I think you’ll do better than me in eastern loudoun unless the ccb comes 20 miles west. You have better elevation (I’m a little over 300 ft) and I could get stuck between the ccb and ivt bands.
-
I am too. i’ll take a 10-20 mile shift of the ccb over trying to bank on the IVT band
-
So close to double digits from the ccb in eastern loudoun. Just 10 more miles please
-
Definitely still in the game. The heavier daytime precip is, the better. The more precip after 5pm/sunset, the better. Hopefully both west of 95
-
Yeah we’re not out of the game yet. No, we won’t jack like NJ/LI - but that’s nothing new. I grew up here watching them get 1-2’ while I get a few inches. That has happened a lot more than many on here think, perhaps due to recency bias. To me, it’s more of a reversion to the 80s/90s with adjusted for today’s climate. Maybe we revert to the 00s/10s soon. We’re starting to see BM storm tracks again, so there’s that.
-
I would love to see that. But someone is gonna get Raleighed
-
I’m in. Let’s do this!
-
Still plenty of time for another west shift to get the western burbs in the goods! (I can’t sleep…)
-
It’s not too late…
-
Going to bed, y’all take the euro suite and I better wake up to a tick or two more west!
-
It’s the western ridge!
-
Love how it backbuilds heavier precip west of 95 even after coastal capture. Don’t think I saw that on previous runs. If correct, sunday night will be fun
