Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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We want it to trend more stream interaction. We may not see results at the sfc immediately
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Since NAM is a mesoscale model, maybe it’s seeing something that globals aren’t seeing wrt gulf moisture and latent heating putting the slp track north. LWX alluded to this in the afternoon AFD.
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If anything 18z nam is a bit faster
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63, heights tick lower across the board but vort/energy is stronger and norther. Angle of attack still more NE
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18z nam 54, h5 vort angle of attack a bit more NE
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Otoh, NAM doesn’t dig that much either but is way more north. So there’s that…
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On both, go back 24 hr. You’ll see that the SS sw doesn’t dig as much as before
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One would think models would start correcting more NW for that reason, but they’ve been going the other way instead. Maybe it’s still too soon for a NW correction.
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Looking ahead… there will be a warm up the last week of feb into first few days of march, but it may be brief as mjo is slow to get through 1-2-3 and epo ridge showing signs of rebuilding
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Mike Thomas at fox is giving this until tomorrow to turn around
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NAM seems to have better divergence across PA/NJ, guess thats why its track is north
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Honestly thought it would turn out better based on h5 leading in, but the sfc fell apart at the last minute. So im feeling what psu is feeling. Something about this feels off.
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Not the reversal we wanted to see. Sorry guys
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93, still light snow. Definitely slid off SE moreso than previous runs
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Its more SE
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84, its trying to tuen the corner
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81, lght snow to m/d line, but looks like its gonna slide
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78, confluence a tick NEer
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69, west ridge def taller. TPV trending stronger from past few runs. S/W SEer or maybe faster
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Ok, 66. Western ridge is broader. Kicker a tick slower. TPV slightly stronger.
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I see we’re gonna let Scraff do it. I’ll bow out for a moment.
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Euro out to 45, no remarkable differences yet
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0.67”, 28.95 in
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Yeah, it’s not so much a full phase that we were needing for a HECS, but its more like sending a spaceship around a planet where its gravitational pull tugs it closer to the track we want.
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12z NAM gives us another path to victory: TPV lobe hooks backwards into the dakotas allowing the ss s/w to pivot around it and come norther as the lobe re-deepens over Chicago as the slp reaches the coast. Look at 500mb vort, play the loop from hr 57 to 78, and you'll see what I mean
