Terpeast

I’ll take it for sure.

And think about it - if we had no AI models at all, just the good ol gfs and euro, we’d be excited about a potential 4-8er.

If it ejects while we have cold air, sure. But even that’s not a guarantee in an el nino winter.

Cliff diving after the drunk uncle tumbles would be hilarious. Its depiction is like my analogy of two field goal kicks colliding right in the middle from 50 yards out. It’s that hard especially in a nina winter.

Good catch. Like the op gfs, gefs is playing the tradeoff game

After the big mood letdown, I went and checked which models have been performing best at 500mb at 96-120 hours. AIFS ensembles and AIFS op hold the top 2, with EPS being a close third. Op euro in the middle of the pack, as is gefs. Op gfs at the bottom-middle, same with op cmc. AI GFS no idea - hasn’t been scored yet

18z vs 12z gfs had some tradeoffs. The sw vort was a step back, but the nrn stream vort dug more and heights rose more in front of it, plus the high weakened by 4mb shifted NW. so thats another path to a minor win here while S VA and NC get the max.

18z aigfs now looks more like the 12z euro

Great post @SnowenOutThere. I also want to highlight how incredibly difficult it is to get a perfect clean phase. Like two kickers kicking two separate balls from opposite sidelines at the 50 yd line and have both balls collide in the middle between the fg posts. That difficult. So a messy imperfect phase or a slight miss is much more likely, which should still give us some snow if not too suppressed by the TPV over canada.

I’ll say the same. I still have photos of myself with my dad standing next to 8 ft snow drifts by our house after the blizzard of 96. Now I get excited for snow not just to scratch my own itch, but to share those special moments with my kids.

Looks like an erroneous run because I don’t think we ever see that much cyclonic vorticity like this off the Baja coast (unless it’s a tropical cyclone)

Can’t say I hate being on the north side of the heaviest snows as depicted by the nbm. Still a little worried about suppression, but 12z assuaged that concern just a little bit.

Enjoy it folks!

3 times

Aifs also late. Dissemination issues it looks like

A coastal that perfectly and beautifully threaded the needle.

I’d say 00z overnight wed/thurs am. for hecs level results, we’re banking on a phase between nrn and srn stream waves out west. We haven’t even sampled that atmosphere yet, so we are playing a dangerous game right now by getting excited over the cmc and ukie. Ngl, I’m briefly envisioning those results imby, but let’s be smart about this. (Generally speaking, not directed at you specifically)

12z gefs much improved: 6z: Now please let the ukie/cmc/aifs verify!

Step in the right direction by gfs. And the cmc, that’s something else!

Once we get to 84-96 hours, I’m sure we’ll see a reshuffling of models. No idea which way it’ll go.

Still new and untested model like AI-GFS and its ensembles. But it has potential

Also notice the PV is more east on gfs than euro, aifs, aigfs

The MSL pressure field actually shifted north in the TVA on 6z vs 0z eps. Mostly noise, but the shift was noticeable.

Just woke up. I’ll summarize… models basically held. We’re on the northern part of the precip shield, which could help our ratios and h700 fgen forcing. Cold high is starting to weaken (was probably overdone). And I’ll address this: in this specific case, move that pna ridge a few hundred miles east, and we’ll suppress this thing all the way to the gulf. The EPO is so strong that we need a little SE ridging to give us a good overrunning event. It’s not the same thing as a bomb cyclone HECS, but overrunning with lots of cold can produce a lot of snow if strong enough.

Going to sleep now, y’all take the euro. I think we’re starting to see models diverging as they usually do between 5-7 days out, and then they’ll re-converge closer to a final solution at around 4 days, which takes us to Wed-Thur.