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Terpeast

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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    Eyeballing around 2.5” at 14.4 degrees. Pure powder
  2. Terpeast
    Radar looks like things will get started at around 11, an hour later than LWX but still at least 2-3 hours earlier than the CAMs. Going to sleep now, it’ll be light stuff to begin with… the best part will be early morning. Get some rest folks!
  3. Terpeast
    Thats my bar. An hour or two extra of all snow during heavy precip before the flip is how we hit our high ends 18/-3
  4. Terpeast
    It’s coming. Within the hour or less. anything to the N or NE of is virga
  5. Terpeast
    If the NAM busts, let’s decommission it early
  6. Terpeast
    Judging from radar and CC, may take another couple of hours for the column to saturate for dc metro and north.
  7. Terpeast
    @psuhoffman I mostly went toward the cams for the usual fall line, but leaned towards the euro for well N and W. *on baby duty rn, can’t explain my reasoning in detail. Sorry
  8. Terpeast
    Another 3 hours perhaps? Then pixie dust first hour or so, and the rates increase. At least that’s the plan…
  9. Terpeast
    Gefs look good on this threat. Nice signal. Next event to track. (Also that clipper in between)
  10. Terpeast
    Doubt it. I’ll go with what LWX is saying, if not an hour later. Next hrrr run may show something different
  11. Terpeast
    Recent hrrr tries to start us earlier, but has us fighting dry air and doesn’t get us going in earnest till 7z
  12. Terpeast
    18z 3k nam doesn’t start precip in dc metro till 6z. LWX has us starting at 3z
  13. Terpeast
  14. Terpeast
    Starting to fall, 17/-6
  15. Terpeast
    Holding at 19/-6 in Ashburn
  16. Terpeast
    That is very very good news… not from a “potentially snowier” weenie perspective, but in terms of perhaps less impacts/power outages/accidents.
  17. Terpeast
    Mix line on 18z nam most similar to 12z yesterday at the same hour (06z Sun). That run doesn’t flip DC until 14z
  18. Terpeast
    Nowcast comparison for 19z: Decent agreement, good initialization for HRRR
  19. Terpeast
    Looks colder than 12z nam for the same times
  20. Terpeast
    Looks like 5-7” thump for dc metro
  21. Terpeast
    16.9/-6
  22. Terpeast
    Comparing gfs forecast for 18z today with current radar Seems faster? Sleet line a bit south
  23. Terpeast
    There’s that GL low. AI is “learning” about those
  24. Terpeast
    I think its a little bit of both. Models touched on the right idea over 10 days ago when they wanted to cut the storm west of us. Gfs had that, just too extreme with 80” snowfall in PA. That’s characteristic of ninas. But then they went way south with all that cold. We still have the cold, but models returned to their original idea.
  25. Terpeast
    It would have been a rainstorm if our temps were even in the climo range
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