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Terpeast

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    I still think its coming together. Can still see bands coming from the SE through DC, and movement on the W side from the NW. seems like convergence Not ready to call the exact norlun positioning but it seems I may benefit from it at least partially
  2. Terpeast
    Heavy snow, ashburn. Looks like 1”/hr rates. 32.5. Everything caved, all white Under that little band moving SW, we shall see how long it lasts and how it evolves.
  3. Terpeast
    I saw it too. It’s moving W/SW, so not sure where it will ultimately set up quite yet
  4. Terpeast
    This is it. The first clue as to where it is forming. I do think it migrates east slowly
  5. Terpeast
    1” so far, but compacted
  6. Terpeast
    Pavement caving!
  7. Terpeast
    Lighter rates now, but temps holding at 33
  8. Terpeast
    Same!
  9. Terpeast
    My nowcast guess - based on radar, seems to be some convergence from HGR/MRB down to west of leesburg to warrenton. Maybe thinking thats where the norlun forms initially and then slowly migrates east to DC
  10. Terpeast
    To be clear, only on grassy areas and car tops. Roads nowhere near caving yet. Just need to lop off another degree
  11. Terpeast
    Down to 33! Already 1/4-1/2 inch on the ground
  12. Terpeast
    Ripping. 34. Should start to accumulate soon
  13. Terpeast
    35 and dropping. All snow. Ripping flakes. It’s game on!
  14. Terpeast
    Still not quite over me but great for KIAD
  15. Terpeast
    Fatties mixing in
  16. Terpeast
    Just saw the loop. Yes it’s a slow moving band that starts forming over me and migrates east slowly over several hours.
  17. Terpeast
    I see flakes mixing in. About 20 minutes ahead of time?
  18. Terpeast
    If this is correct (which is still an open question), someone in NW dc and alexandria is going to get pummeled
  19. Terpeast
    Still rain, but down to 36
  20. Terpeast
    I’m under yellows per radar, but rain is not that heavy. I think there is some bright banding going on up there. It’s getting close (column is starting to cool)
  21. Terpeast
    Over under 4”, those who get the norlun will be safely over
  22. Terpeast
    I don’t think the globals have value at this point when calculating how much qpf falls before/after the flip and doing the math. The CAMs already account for this, they hardly have any accumulation (0.5” or less) anywhere but the high elevs until 22-23z. Even if we lop off an inch across the board due to melting, the forecast will still verify on the middle to low end. We won’t hit the 90th percentile numbers so I think we can put that to bed, but the forecast is still very much in play.
  23. Terpeast
    Down another half degree. 37.3
  24. Terpeast
    Lost a degree in the half hour. 37.8 0.15” so far
  25. Terpeast
    I’ll see your 3 miles east and then raise you another 10 miles west. May the best hand win
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