Terpeast

I think this is the best hrrr run for loudoun, and its been more conservative than other models with the SW tail end.

If 0.4” qpf is correct for mby, thats a solid 3”+ which I think is the boom scenario. Very achievable though

Just now there is. Eastern Loudoun as well

Yeah anyone east of the BR is in the game, just the vibe changed when the models shifted main band NW, which isn’t surprising to see.

39 here, underperforming temp forecast (it was supposed to be 45)

Euro reflects my thinking on where the best banding may set up just NW of 95 rather than right along it or SE (except extreme NE MD through DE and S NJ.

Yeah with 1”/hr rates it won’t take long to clear 4” NE of balt

Initial call. A lot could change as this is really a nowcast event, so I feel like I’m really sticking my neck out on this one. I’d also add an inch over the delmarva east of the bay north of 50

Updated. 1” line moved significantly NW

I noticed that over greenland/scandinavia. While that hasn’t yet translated to an eastern trough, I see BN temp anomalies NYC north and less “torchy” conditions down here in the MA. Tells me CAD events may be a possibility, something we haven’t seen in ages. And perhaps the E trough will pop in if/when the-nao persists at least a week.

It still gives me about 1.5” imby, so if that’s the “worst” model, I’ll take. Happy to see balt corridor get the jack this time though

Watching for an expansion of wwa west to cover Loudoun and Frederick counties

Nws reduced expected amt to less than 1” for mby and no WWA (eastern loudoun) but increased high-end potential to 4-5”. Low expectations but high upside.

Down to 20.5

Still lots of disagreement on the western extent of the band, gfs doesn’t bring it much here while the cmc does all the way to the BR. Mesos are somewhere in the middle.

That's what I want to see in order to get in on the action. Otherwise I'll (and anyone to the S and W of me) will get shut out.

This was a good suite for the mesos. Could be the start of a positive trend for many of us who had been looking from the outside in.

Anyone down south got anything from this?

Seems ukie/rgem/canadian have the band further nw than the gfs, and iirc euro/nam is in the middle. Hrrr ticked nw but was still closer to gfs. If I got it wrong, chalk it up to too many models and lack of sleep haha

Hasn't that area been constantly shafted the last several years even though we had good snows the last couple of winters? I'm rooting hard for you folks up there!

Tough call for them. Take a little extra time to think it through

It’s been while since we’ve seen a legit CAD setup where we get a front end thump before flip with primary lows to the NW of us. Probably because Canada was torched the last few winters iirc. Now with Canada being cold, we may have a shot at a CAD event where it’s not just a cold rain for everyone east of the Alleghenies.

I was just thinking this. Max strip may verify slightly NW of what’s being modeled.

Beautiful. I’m gonna enjoy this one, until the next model shows zip for mby.

Good point. When I spent a few years in Vietnam, I was surprised how ham they went with the xmas decorations everywhere. It was weird to be admiring a huge xmas tree while wiping sweat off my brows. Anyhow back to the xmas torch - for some reason it happens around the holidays, with no apparent scientific reason behind it. But like I said, if we must torch, I’ll take it about now through the end of december. The last few times we actually had a very cold xmas, the following January (and sometimes Feb) torched. Take the torch now, and we’ll have our chances in prime climo starting around second week of Jan.