Terpeast

Like I said yesterday, models aren't going to pick up discrete threats in the Jan 5-12 timeframe until we get to New Years and that's why the models look dry and "boring". Only now the Euro shows something for Jan 6. It won't verify verbatim probably, but something is there. I didn't think it would show a threat this soon. OTOH, 12z GFS has 2-3 cutters (which probably won't verify verbatim either).

It just looks wet outside. 32/22. I haven't bothered to step outside to check if there's any sleet or glaze.

Yeah, that's a legit question. While things are still TBD, my answer is that in this case, it's not just low heights over AK, but the aleutian high is getting broken down with lower heights over the aleutians. This leads to a +PNA ridge over the west. If you animate that run from 300-360, you'll see the +PNA ridge building. Plus with that ridge, that extremely cold air over AK/Yukon will get shoved SE towards the eastern US albeit with some modification. Imagine instead if the aleutian high stayed, and the AK vortex helps dig a trough over the west, then yes that would be bad. But the models aren't showing that.

Yea something ain’t right with the WB algorithm. Euro 2mt maps from the source are more like NN for our backyards and a couple degrees below for the eastern GL and NE.

Still looking good for Jan 5-12 give or take a couple of days. PNA and NAO ridges building out west towards end of all three dynamic model ensembles. They won’t pick up on discrete threats to track at this time. Smaller and moderate events often don’t show up until within 5 days. And Merry Christmas to all!

This warm up was projected to be more central/east, and ended up further west.

Just saw the euro weeklies this morning, basically a hold from yesterday. Starting to think our best timeframe for a coastal storm is the second week of January (more like Jan 5-12 ish). Nothing trackable yet, but something for us to watch, particularly precip anomalies across the Gulf South through our area to the NE along with ample cold air.

I was looking at the ensembles yesterday, and I agree the Jan 3-8 timeframe is one to watch.

I also remember us getting a clipper after the Jan ice storm, narrow band of snow across the dmv. 2 inches of dry fluffy snow on top of the skating rink. My dad tried driving up the hilly driveway, and he only made it halfway before sliding all the way back down. Wild times then

Once that trough axis moves to just west of us, crazy things can start to happen... watch out for some trackable events then.

Still uncertain though, because the weeklies have been flip flopping. Few days ago, they were hinting at a colder pattern, then they flipped warm the next day. It looked like a zero hope shut the blinds torch through and through. Then they again flipped colder yesterday, and doubled down again today.

At least Webb admitted to the L. I’ll give him that.

I agree with this sentiment. We'll have good and bad windows (we're in the middle of a bad one right now) in this volatile winter. Expect the unexpected seems to be the theme here.

Markets moving on today's euro weeklies. Still would like to see them being more consistent to go all-in on the cold east for Jan.

Today's euro weeklies now popping a +PNA with colder trends for the east for the entire forecast period. We'll see if this holds...

Today's euro weeklies now popping a +PNA with colder trends for the east for the entire forecast period.

Low of 18, great radiational cooling that overperformed.

He is lucky to have you!

If these trends keep up, there will be a lot of pissed off wives come Christmas

He was calling for a TNH+ pattern with -EPO for the winter not too long ago, maybe a couple of weeks. I do follow him and he gives good background information under the hood, but the latest tweet of his lacked the usual substance and reasoning for a big change is his position/outlook.

Isn’t Webb living in New Mexico or somewhere like that? I can see why he would be frustrated wrt his backyard snowfall prospects (lack of STJ), but to paint that as “winter’s over” for the entire country/EC is a bit much. Some stretches are gonna suck, others may be decent. I still don’t think this is a one track winter.

You’re quite the story teller! No cap. I noticed the EPS fading the SE ridge this morning as well. GEFS did the same thing.

I seem to recall that it did, my 2-month total from Dec 2023 to Jan 2024 was 13” of precip. With canada torched, it was just too warm for snow. Ironically the only snows we got were when the STJ took a break.

End of both eps and gefs begin to fade the SER, hint of height rises in the west. Large scale features largely the same, though.

Wdym? All I was saying that I’m waiting until the weeklies are more consistent for at least a few days instead of flip flopping. Only then I’ll think there’s some credibility to their forecasts.