Terpeast
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Everything posted by Terpeast
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Few drops, 36. Precip band just to the NW should move SE with the cold air push. Patience is needed.
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Nothing falling atm imby, 37. Didn’t think it was supposed to start this early though
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Based on radar, expecting precip to start within the hour.
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34.7
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35 here too. Dew at 29. Don’t think temps will be an issue
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Yeah i gotcha, I don’t like changing my forecasts too much. Maybe once after an initial call, but that’s it
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This will be my last one
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My updated forecast and final call (Note BR and cacotins can be double my numbers)
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36.9 as of 5:15p in ashburn
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I think this is the best hrrr run for loudoun, and its been more conservative than other models with the SW tail end.
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If 0.4” qpf is correct for mby, thats a solid 3”+ which I think is the boom scenario. Very achievable though
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Just now there is. Eastern Loudoun as well
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Yeah anyone east of the BR is in the game, just the vibe changed when the models shifted main band NW, which isn’t surprising to see.
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39 here, underperforming temp forecast (it was supposed to be 45)
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Euro reflects my thinking on where the best banding may set up just NW of 95 rather than right along it or SE (except extreme NE MD through DE and S NJ.
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Yeah with 1”/hr rates it won’t take long to clear 4” NE of balt
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Initial call. A lot could change as this is really a nowcast event, so I feel like I’m really sticking my neck out on this one. I’d also add an inch over the delmarva east of the bay north of 50
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Updated. 1” line moved significantly NW
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I noticed that over greenland/scandinavia. While that hasn’t yet translated to an eastern trough, I see BN temp anomalies NYC north and less “torchy” conditions down here in the MA. Tells me CAD events may be a possibility, something we haven’t seen in ages. And perhaps the E trough will pop in if/when the-nao persists at least a week.
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It still gives me about 1.5” imby, so if that’s the “worst” model, I’ll take. Happy to see balt corridor get the jack this time though
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Watching for an expansion of wwa west to cover Loudoun and Frederick counties
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Nws reduced expected amt to less than 1” for mby and no WWA (eastern loudoun) but increased high-end potential to 4-5”. Low expectations but high upside.
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Down to 20.5
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Still lots of disagreement on the western extent of the band, gfs doesn’t bring it much here while the cmc does all the way to the BR. Mesos are somewhere in the middle.
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That's what I want to see in order to get in on the action. Otherwise I'll (and anyone to the S and W of me) will get shut out.
