Terpeast

Mby station is reporting 47.5 as the high, now 47. Under sunny skies. Full two degrees warmer than other obs, so probably 45 is the real temperature. May need to calibrate my station temp…

I’ll try and hold the line for all of our sakes!

Living on the fall line your whole life esp your formative years will do that to ya lol

Maybe its just me having grown up in Vienna only a few miles out of the beltway, but feeling a little nervous being close to the fall line even in Ashburn

Looks like a hold

Great sign! Lets see if it shifts one more time to get DC metro in the game for high end advisory!

Good observation. It’s the nam, but we’ll see if other models trend that way. It may not take much, maybe 150 miles further N to get DC in the game. 200 for you probably.

Does anyone know if the 3k nam has a history of moving frontal boundaries too quickly, or just right?

kinda surprised the rgem didn’t cave. Oh well, I rather have the euro on my side than rgem.

The pack is gonna take a beating today. It held on strong when wet bulb temps were close to freezing even when air temps were in the 40s, but today is different.

So we don’t have to pull an all nighter just to see the snowfall for once, how nice. I like my sleep

Would have me beating last winter with two weeks left in January

3-5” areawide all the way down to EZF-Calvert-Dover would be a massive win and morale booster

Erroneous output, most likely. Not a problem with 3k though. Hopefully they decomm the old nam and keep the 3k

3k nam 0.3” qpf area wide

If that lead wave over OH speeds up a bit and gives the main wave some breathing room, this could pop something on the surface

Well at least won’t melt as soon as the backedge appears on radar because it’ll be cold. Bro.

Euro has that dual band structure even with low qpf overall. The NW band will have higher ratios and produce more snowfall than depicted on 10:1 ratio maps.

if it makes you feel any better, I might be the one who gets stuck between the two. Especially if the storm shifts more NW than the GFS/NAM are saying

One scenario i can see playing out is 2 precip maxes, one along the blue ridge NE into central maryland as the low gets going... and the other that starts E of DC into NYC once the coastal strengthens and 850 low closes off. Maybe the canadian models are latching onto the first precip max and extending it NE while leaving the S & E warmer and wetter, and the colder weaker more S/E solutions are conversely under-doing the NW precip max. As much flak the GFS gets these days, it did pretty well in the short range <48 hr in the last storm IIRC. So now maybe we are starting to get those mesoscale details into better focus where the secondary NW max gets 3-6/4-8+ of powder while the other qpf band along DC-Balt-Philly-NYC gets 3-5" of wet snow. As Chill would say, just spitballing.

One of the two model camps is going to cave dramatically. I think I know which to put my money on.

Fits with the CWG forecast. Classic fall line

I’d take the under on kuchera ratios along i-95 and just NW, but could be right for the elevations. Feeling 2-4” areawide, 3-6+ well nw (cacotins and mount psu, m/d line)

Could be why LWX is hedging towards 0 for i-95 on the low end. I'm sure it's automated, but still... I'm not worried though

Spun the wheel and got less than last night's dusting. Bah