Terpeast

That’s probably more likely given all the mixed signals we have now. But all it takes is one to go ka-boom, and as ckskinsfan would say, we get obliterated.

Yes, and help sustain it long enough for us to get good chances for double digit snowstorms. A trough north of Hawaii is a classic +ENSO/+PDO/+PNA atmospheric pattern. Since we still have a -PDO (albeit not as extreme as it was a month or two ago), we're pinning hopes on it decoupling so that we can still get +PNA.

Just posted this. This year, we have a -QBO (and falling) plus ascending solar flux. When I pair -QBO and ascending solar, I see a better signal for blocking. You'll like this. Read:

@griteater I remembered you being the one to find AO/NAO patterns by ascending or descending solar. What surprised me was that when you had ascending solar, those years favored a -AO/NAO and vice versa. Well, I did some plots that not only supported your research, but also found that a -QBO enhanced the association of ascending solar with -AO/NAO. This makes me more confident that we'll see more blocking this winter. First, when I looked at QBO alone, I didn't find a strong association between QBO and the polar domain. The regression was very weak: For -10 QBO years, you could only see hints of a signal. At first, this lowered my confidence in using QBO for seasonal outlooks. But when I looked at solar and compared descending vs ascending, I found these signals. All years with descending solar shows a hint of a +AO signal with reduced blocking. It's not a strong signal, but keep reading! These are ascending solar years, now we see a better blocking signal. But that's not all........... When I pair -QBO (all years lower than -5) WITH ascending solar years, we get an even stronger blocking signal. Boom!

Yeah, we have a pretty good idea on this nino. I’m mostly tracking the mid lat pac and pdo

Also good to see troughing n of hawaii, and as it moves east, another trough is about to reload to its west. I’m seeing that as a great sign

Close to 84 here, but back down to 81 for now

Yeah, not a ton of good matches. Its too easy to go down the rabbit hole of trying to find matches on obscure indices, including old ones that haven’t been updated in years. So this time I’m picking only 3-4 of those, using one statistical methodology and sticking with it. I considered using sensible weather analogs too, but I don’t know how to do that. Too many ways to slice and dice 1-3 week periods and the number of permutations are infinite. So I won’t go there either.

Tracking pretty closely with 94-95, and about a month ahead of 19-20’s schedule. 94-95 is a decent analog match in some ways.

Great post @griteater. 66 and 73 are on my analog short list, too, as are 09-10 and a few others. Will refine with new numbers next week.

This. Too much hand wringing and nina-base-state-ism going on over there. We just saw the PDO rise from -3 to near neutral in a span of a few weeks. That rarely happens! One poster over there dismissed it as “noise”. Normally he is smart and insightful and I respect his content, but the “noise” comment is ridiculous. -3 to -0.3 is not noise, it’s a pattern change in process. Now I’m not saying we go super, or that we get a 09-10 redux, but this winter will give us tracking chances and the best shot at a KU since 2016.

Wasn’t this early Sept? Before the big rise in PDO? Agree that there was a mismatch, but that’s no surprise after a triple nina and the nino was just getting started. It takes time for the extratropicals to “catch up” so to speak, and that’s still in progress. By “it takes time”, I mean several months, not days or weeks. It seems everyone is expecting things to turn on a dime within a week. Also, many here were operating under the assumption that we'd go super (and now wondering why this nino is "broken" or some hand wringing like that). I was never on board with super in the first place. I thought that would have been asking far too much after a triple nina and extreme negative PDO. However, I'll grant that the nino signal is being a bit muted by widespread warmth in all of the global oceans. It's warm everywhere. So it's like what would normally be the loudest guy in the room is now being drowned out by background noise.

Topped 78 before the clouds moved over

Mixed signals notwithstanding, I think this is the year to get a KU if we’re going to get one at all.

THIS is exactly why I retain some optimism for our area and not as doom-and-gloom as many posters are. If coastal areas can still get cold enough and foot+ blizzards, then we almost certainly can and will get these when the conditions are right - and this winter will be the best chance we have since 2016.

Yeah I really don’t agree with zip for the coast. But you know how TV mets are, they don’t really forecast for the fringes of their area.

That may be the case. But all the research I've been doing so far is leading me to a similar conclusion, but I'm waiting for the new runs early November and the new MEI value. I have a feeling that there'll be a new fly in the ointment, whether for better or worse.

Yeah, I have a feeling the next euro run will correct and hard. And likely in our favor for MA & SE

IAD and BWI have a chance at/near those dates.

Not to pile on, but...

Reasonable guess.

Yeah, a lot of mixed indicators as you and bluewave pointed out. That's why I'm leaning closer to normal temp wise here in the MA and SE. Further north will be above... and much above out towards Maine and the northern plains.

Ok those are interesting analogs. We know that 86 and 02 are el nino years. Not perfect matches by any means, but still interesting nonetheless. Fair enough. I've done a lot of research on the PDO in relation to the MA climo for winters, and found that we don't have to have a +PDO to have a productive winter. It can be neutral or even slightly negative. Maybe the PDO being closer to neutral allows some uncoupling for a couple of weeks at a time, a few times per winter.

While I agree that access to guns should be greatly limited, especially when mental health is involved. I've seen people claiming that mental health is not the cause of the increase in mass shootings, but when I look the gun violence archive (or some similar dataset), I see a significant portion of mass shootings were committed by shooters with mental health issues. So I agree that addressing mental health is a large part of the equation. I mean... we don't want people with uncontrolled (or even controlled) mental health problems to have access to AR-15s, do we? So tragic for people of Maine. Stay safe for you folks up there. And this is having an effect on me, too. Every time I go to the grocery store, the first thing I do when I enter is look for all of the exits in the back. EDIT: My apologies @dendrite I didn't see your post to move things to banter when I typed this. Feel free to move my post there.

We're getting there, slowly but surely. The recent PDO rise was legit, and I wouldn't dismiss it as noise. Last 15 days shows the trend we want to see. Keep in mind that I never said we're going +PDO. For the record, I don't think this is the year that we will flip. Just that we're getting closer to neutral.