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Terpeast

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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    Ensembles still show an active STJ, even if its not directly over our house. Op runs will flip flop in the med-long range, one will show dry another will show wet. That’s all we can take from now
  2. Terpeast
    My bar is 3 trimonthlies above 2.0 for a super. Even if we got to that point, I don’t think the atmospheric response will reflect a super. More like high end moderate to strong.
  3. Terpeast
    76-77 was cold, but it was also dry
  4. Terpeast
    The recent WWB plus this: Only bolsters my confidence that the nino will overpower the -PDO, and we’ll see it mostly uncoupled even if it stays negative.
  5. Terpeast
    2.36” final total
  6. Terpeast
    That line pushed me over 2" 2.14" with some leftovers to come
  7. Terpeast
    And don't forget the big MJO 8-1-2 event back in the spring that kicked off the first WWB. I think some are holding onto a certain bias that ignores recent 8-1-2 incursions.
  8. Terpeast
    Torrential now
  9. Terpeast
    Not quite, but maybe it should have. PDO was positive that winter, but came after a triple nina -PDO just like this year. QBO was positive though. Solar max, too (we’re close to it now).
  10. Terpeast
    I think the nino will eventually win this battle royale. although Ji correctly pointed out 72-73 as an analog, it was east based. This nino is not. Besides 72-73 was near normal temp wise. Just bad luck we missed a blizzard to the south of us. The better analog in my opinion is 65-66. Also 2009-10 is not off the table either, though I’d want to see what the next MEI comes in… and what the MJO does into mid-late dec.
  11. Terpeast
    1.2”
  12. Terpeast
    Yeah we’re losing the marginal events no question about that.
  13. Terpeast
    Yeah, 10 days before meteorological winter.
  14. Terpeast
    I know we're all rooting for PSU to get his first inch by December, but I think in an El Nino year with 65-66 being one of the top analogs, we have a bit more leeway. The first inch didn't happen until January in both IAD and BWI. So this may be an exception to the rule. Stay off the ledge until at least January 15. And then do whatever you want after that date if we don't see any snow by then... but do so at your risk! If you get hurt or worse, don't sue me.
  15. Terpeast
    Great sign if centered east of the dateline. That should be the driver instead of the MC forcing we've seen in the past several years.
  16. Terpeast
    At least the STJ is there.
  17. Terpeast
    0.8" now, heavier rain
  18. Terpeast
    Although we may see a milder spell first half of december, the STJ is there. Nino is starting to flex.
  19. Terpeast
    0.4” so far, mod rain
  20. Terpeast
    Or they could juice snowfall totals if just cold enough.
  21. Terpeast
    I may have called the nino peak too early, definitely coming in higher now than October. At least this will shift the forcing east of the dateline, with cooling over the MC. (Yes we’re seeing the MC burp a little bit, but I don’t see that lasting) PDO remains a bit stubborn, but I stand by my assessment that nino will win overall.
  22. Terpeast
    Temp was 38 when rain started falling. 2 months later, this would be a thump to rain event
  23. Terpeast
    Yeah, he’ll be fine. He’s turning over a new leaf. Right, Ji?
  24. Terpeast
    We need this
  25. Terpeast
    And if we're going to get MC forcing or 4-6 MJO, I'd rather get that now into mid-Dec, so then it circles over into 7-8-1-2 and sets us up nicely. Plus that second wind by this nino should also overpower the -PDO
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