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Terpeast

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Everything posted by Terpeast

  1. Terpeast
    In case anyone was wondering where I stand, that's all I was saying. Temper our expectations. Even the smallest trend one way or another can result in a drastic change in the outcome close to the fall line. Closer to I-81 will probably be fine and more immune to these shifts.
  2. Terpeast
    Yeah, when I was looking at the 50/50, there isn’t enough of a block to hold it in place. What we DO have going for us is timing. Faster storm, most precip happens at night, and with the in situ airmass like you said, we may still thread the needle to get at least a few inches east of the blue ridge. Which would be a win in early Jan during a nino. And I wouldn’t also count out the back end precip as the low departs.
  3. Terpeast
    Even on the GFS I see a trend towards a weaker and further east 50/50 low, thanks to the wednesday system being less amped off the coast. I’m trying to be positive, but the gfs seems to be hanging on by a thread thanks to that stout 1031 high to the north despite less cold air. Continue that trend, and this thing may slip away from us. Let’s hope things get colder in 96-48 hr lead times
  4. Terpeast
    Or maybe its just a bad off run. Didn’t 0z euro trend better for i-95?
  5. Terpeast
    Can’t remember which model, but I picked up on weaker confluence last night. Euro 6z seems to be continuing that trend, while gfs is doing the opposite. We’ll have to see who is right about the confluence up north.
  6. Terpeast
    0z GEFS held serve
  7. Terpeast
    No high to the north at all. That would probably be the worst case scenario
  8. Terpeast
    Also more spacing. I think this event gained almost a full day from when we started tracking. Models have it starting around 1-3 pm saturday So by 18z tomorrow, we’ll be tracking an event at inside 96 hours
  9. Terpeast
    Confluence a bit weaker, which is why the r/s line moved north. But there are also timing differences, and more spacing between the western vort
  10. Terpeast
    Although the SE Canada high retreated NE a bit, allowing the warm nose a bit north, note the second H north of MN. That’s new - wasn’t there before. Could be a new trend with better backside snows. Or it could be a blip?
  11. Terpeast
    Icon also speeding up the storm, as has the other models. the speed up trend is for real
  12. Terpeast
    I’ve only seen measureable snow twice and both were half an inch or less. Leesburg or west of 15 is probably better than Ashburn, but coming from Vienna, Ashburn probably will do better in i-95 fall line setups like this one
  13. Terpeast
    Awesome, thanks for putting that together. If this does verify, its going to be a nailbiter out here.
  14. Terpeast
    Not sure it’s necessarily trending warmer, but rather just moving things faster
  15. Terpeast
    I don’t love that 0c line running over my house, but I’m more interested in the trend
  16. Terpeast
    Still 5 days out. Let’s hope this holds serve at least.
  17. Terpeast
    We've been looking at how this is trending, too. It has trended colder with a stronger high up north. I've been harping on this for 2 days now.
  18. Terpeast
    I'm 80-90% confident that there will be a steep gradient in snowfall within a 20 mile range, or even less. I just hope most of us will be on the left side of it.
  19. Terpeast
    I see two competing influences where this storm wants to come north, but at the same time the cold high gets even stronger while bearing down on us. Will be interesting to see how these trend until we're 60-72 hours from game time. By then, the models should be pretty locked in, give or take 15-20 miles
  20. Terpeast
    Makes me think that storms will try to follow that baroclinic zone off the VA/NC coast NE-ward (if you've been paying attention to SST and t2m maps in that area, you know what I'm talking about)
  21. Terpeast
    op GFS and GEFS very close in SLP placement at h132
  22. Terpeast
    I think a faster jump to the coast actually helps us
  23. Terpeast
    Me too. We have so little wiggle room and we can't afford a slight north jog. 18z gfs just gave us a bit more breathing room
  24. Terpeast
  25. Terpeast
    For fun - 138h sounding at KIAD in the middle of the storm
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