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Everything posted by Dark Star
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Everyone?
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2/13 Light/Moderate Snowfall Nowcasting & Observations
Dark Star replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
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It has been light rain in Linden NJ since 7:30 AM.
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I am tiring about the terms “banding” and “dry air preventing precipitation”, related to snowstorms. For instance, when it comes down to nowcasting time, a lot of members post, “We won’t know where the heaviest snow will fall, it all depends upon where the banding sets up”. Most storms follow a gradient pattern. Meaning that the heaviest snowfall is where the greatest lift of the storm is, normally associated with the center of the low pressure system (though not necessarily the center itself). Most storm have waves of heavier precipitation, normally originating from the center of the storm. These have become known as bands, but are normal functions of a storm. When people post “it depends on where the banding sets up” seems pointless. There are bands moving throughout the entire precipitation area. Some heavier than others. Again, most times the heavier bands are closer to the center of the lift (which is normally related to the center of the low). We watch the models and their output in advance of the storm. We track and formulate where the heaviest precipitation will fall. It has nothing to do with banding! Exceptions to this is when you have a deformation zone that sets up. Usually this is a warm front or other synoptic parameter causing additional lift within a storm. It is there where you can get intense “banding”, other than the normal lift that occurs with the low pressure system itself. Then there are the unusual snowstorms, like one that occurred several years ago. It did not follow a typical gradient pattern, and snowfall amounts were erratic throughout the storm’s path. Then Sam Champion began forecasting the same type of result with the very next snowstorm. There was no merit to his assumption. Instead, the storm followed a typical gradient pattern of snowfall. The heaviest snow depths occurred closer to the center of the storm. There is also a misuse of blaming “dry air” for lack of snowfall in a particular area. While this is true in some situations, like during snow caused by warm air advection (over running). The snow moves into dry air and “dries up”, never reaching the ground. However, the term “dry air” was used in the January 29, 2022 storm. Someone posted that dry air was preventing heavier precipitation amounts from falling in the western suburbs. This storm had a tight gradient. The heavier snowfalls were much closer to the center of lift than other storms. Had the center of the low pressure been 50 miles farther west, the precipitation would have been correspondingly heavier in those western suburbs, and the “dry air” would also be 50 miles further west.
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January 28/29 Blizzard Observations/Discussion/Nowcasting
Dark Star replied to Northof78's topic in New York City Metro
I was surprised to measure 6" (unofficially) in Garwood (central Union County NJ). It didn't look like that much. -
Bands? For which location? Current models indicate a pretty tight gradeint. Banding would likely be an issue further out on eastern Long Island. No coastal/warm fronts to affect increased lift in most areas near NYC and west, unless the storm would track closer to the coast.
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Snowing lightly for at least the last hour in central Union County, NJ. Temp creeped up from 29 to 30 during that time. About 0.5". Surface winds appear to be NE. Expect pinging shortly, or just changeover to plain rain?
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I think the only chance NYC and NE Jersey has of seeing any snow is a result of that western component presently in Alabama and western Tennessee. If that fades, and "consolidates" with the main precip shield, we shouldn't see a thing?
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Meteorological Winter begins December 1st.
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I would think long range predictions of just snowfall is completely unrealistic. The best we can do is to project a colder and wetter season, which probability would suggest some of that will be snow...
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I can't remember the last time lakes and ponds in Union County NJ froze solid enough to skate on.
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Computer model guidance is merely a tool. It's up to the meteorologist to make a forecast based on all the data and experience. As Jeff Beradelli has said many times, the devil is in the details. Somewhere in the modeling are clues to what actually is going to happen.
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The sensors are placed in a vented box, but they don't have to be "in the shade".
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A little bit of Sleet mixing in - in Central Union County, NJ; Now at 2:05 PM we have a snow shower in Garwood.
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As I have said before, the recent upsurge in wildfires have been assisted by intentional human intervention. The extent of it, we will never know. https://www.foxnews.com/us/ex-professor-charged-four-california-wildfires
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I thought a front combined with Ida accounted for the rainfall? The record rainfall amounts were predicted by the models, and I'm pretty sure they didn't take into consideration the ocean temperature feeding more moisture in.
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Almost impossible to say in Garwood, central Union County. The color last week was bland, and now, with half the leaves down, the color has turned much more vibrant.
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More chance of being right if you go warm...
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OBS and nowcast now through - 6A Sunday(Halloween) 10/31/21
Dark Star replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
The center of this thing seems to be anchored in the SW corner of VA, and not moving much. This is supposed to be out of here by Sunday morning? -
OBS and nowcast 9PM tonight-8A Wednesday for a general 2-5" rain, isolated 8" possible. 40-60 kt damaging wind likely Tuesday-early Wednesday. Focus for damaging wind and heaviest rain is the I95 corridor to the coasts. Power outages esp CT LI.
Dark Star replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro
Lost power for about 1 minute around 10:30PM last night in Garwood NJ. New "environmentally friendly" storm drains do not seem to be working as well as the original designs.- 228 replies
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- heavy rain
- flash flooding
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Just picked up one about that size in my driveway in NE Jersey a few days ago and put him in a shrub. I rarely see them that big.