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Everything posted by Dark Star
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Hard to argue, but it's also hard to believe a global increase of 2 degrees since the 1880's can have such a profound effect. I certainly am ignorant of the "accumulated heat" topic. I guess that may explain why such a seemingly small increase would result in extreme warmer temperatures in our area?
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True Dat, but there is $3.5T coming for "infrastructure"...In the long run, it could be cheaper to bury a lot of utilities instead of making repairs after every tropical storm or tornado...Of course then again, it would probably be done wrong, not burying utilities in such a way that lines can be slipped in or out for future improvements.
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Thinning out the forests does not mean eliminating them. I have read from many sources that forest management is severely lacking. Also need to keep power lines, windmills, etc. away from these areas. All power lines should be underground. It's also amazing how many arsonists there are...
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I think case in point is that the tornado damage occurred in Mullica Hill, in which appears to be a new development? The many undeveloped areas in the most densely populated state are disappearing. AS my brother in law says: K Hovnanian - Filling the spaces in between the spaces. The forecast last Wednesday was correct. However, the actual real time radar was showing the main area of precipitation missing the most populated areas to the north, the radar filled in the back trailing end just before it hit NE New Jersey. I was dead wrong (this wasn't the first time)...
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Strange, while Garwood NJ (central Union County NJ) has been under some heavy radar, only receiving occasional heavy downpours, mostly light to moderate, with possible tapering off to lighter scattered precip within a half hour, based on the latest radar? Heaviest rain so far at 7:45 PM. I can tell since this is the first time it is spilling over my roof gutters.
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If a storm is predicted, and misses by 100 miles, its a bust. In fact some forecasters are persistent with the previous 48 hours outputs, that they can't revise their forecasts. Easy for me to say as an armchair forecaster. March 05, 2001 was a major bust when almost every forecaster stuck with the forecast, even after the snow had moved north and east of Manhattan. Alan Kasper was the first to pick this up.
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Imagine the ordinary ridge or trough passing through is like one big bicycle tire, with asymmetrical spokes. Each spoke represents a “wrinkle” in the atmosphere or Positive Vorticity Advection (PVC). The ridge or trough will rotate the various PVC areas through your area. On a hot dry day, with no PVC, a thunderstorm can still form due to hot rising air, but will normally be localized and short lived. On a hot humid day, a thunderstorm can form, but will still likely be localized and short lived. When a “spoke” of PVC rotates through, this can spark several scattered thunderstorms, as it feeds more upper level dynamics. Of course a larger area of PVC has the potential to set off widespread areas of thunderstorms. And if the you get enough crossing/merging of different layers of various pressures, temperatures, etc. (in the atmosphere) you can get the severe types of supercells. The more upper level support, the less likely the lack of sun or marine air will affect the thunderstorm development.
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I wouldn't put Ocean County, Pike, Sussex, or Orange, Putnam, Ulster Dutchess, or Litchfield Counties in NYC metro area for forecasting purposes (especially in winter).
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Some models called for the bullseye of the precipitation to be over NYC metro area, others called for it to be north of the area. Models that called for the heaviest totals north of the area look like may be correct, while the other models will not. In the winter, us Snow Geese would call this a bust.
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Aluminum chairs, don't know if wood would have made a difference???
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Finally, a shower here in Garwood NJ - central Union County. Slight bit o thunder. No rain all weekend.
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Central Union County in NJ hasn't received any rain either. Radar looks strange, with rain cells moving west from the coast, and east along the western Jersey border.
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I was tracking winds during Sandy and they began falling as it approached. However, that turn inland brought with it the storm surge, which unfortunately does not dissipate as rapidly as the winds do. So it will depend on which side of the "remnants" of the storm that you are on
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Looks like it is being pulled west?
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Of course, we go back to the Central Park monitoring station. Seems the government never wants to listen...
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So it's a people management issue. However, you don't want the government deciding on how to do that...
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I've been preaching since the 1970's that the population increase will eventually doom the planet. It seems the Europeans are the only ones with zero to negative population growth (not accounting for immigration).
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I am okay with no subforum for Union/Essex counties in NJ, even though I live in Union County. I think this area is well represented under the NYC forum.
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This sounds political to me.
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Hey, I'm one of those freaks...
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Where the @%$$!!! are the Cicadas? By the way, looks like some showers working their way down from Summit towards Cranford and maybe Westfield NJ?
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