MANDA

A solid 6 days away but at least something to watch with some interest. Just not much else to hang our collective hats on these days. Odds low especially along and southeast of I95 especially outside of New England. Something to at least have some interest in.

Just a trace of snowfall here....BARELY. Jut the slightest coating on the deck and snowboard only. Was not not expecting much so not much disappointment.

some additional maps

Might not be exactly the forum to post this but since there is not much else going on I'll go for it. Where were you on this night 27 years ago? Time has flown but that storm ranks up there as one of my top 5 favorite snowstorms for many reasons. Not the least of which is that I got to forecast for it and it was the experience of a lifetime. Was working the 5am to noon shift at Ion Weather that weekend which was then located in the base of the tower at KMMU. Thanks to Steve P. for giving me one of my first broadcasting opportunities. Was doing radio for some smaller radio stations from Hagerstown, MD across to Bucks and Montgomery Counties in PA. numerous stations across NJ from ACY area up to Sussex County and across into the Lower Hudson Valley. Was quite the busy Sunday morning 1/7/96. Conditions deteriorated over the course of the morning and by the time I left just after noontime you could barely see across the field to the runways. Visibility was about 1/8 to 1/4 miles with S+ and BS. The usual 20 minute drive home took 60 minutes and was a white knuckle trip. Thankfully traffic was very light. Still have the forecasts that I prepared that morning. Anyway, I saved some of the DIFAX maps from that Sunday morning. Weather / maps on the internet was just coming into its own and nowhere near the caliber of maps and models we have today. The maps are old and I had to shrink them to scan them but if you can zoom in they are just classic. The 850 low track was text book. Surface low literally crawled up the coast. Classic banana high banked to the north. Check out the VV on the FOUS data with associated QPF.

Just preparing a post about that with some old DIFAX maps.

EURO = Wash. Rinse. Repeat. Persistence is a forecasting tool. I'm quite sure the evolution of things will not be exactly as EURO depicts. Entire week away and there will be changes. Not saying for the better necessarily. EURO as currently modeled certainly meets the definition of persistence.

Combined with the fact the we'll be going towards a more +PNA and MJO in more favorable phases and -AO and -EPO (not huge negatives but negatives) based on this and that it is not just the GFS I'd have to say this is the best CHANCE at SOMETHING so far this season. Just have to see if trends hold. We're quite a ways away and nothing in this time frame has held so far this season so there is reason for caution. At least something of interest. Better than continuous torching.

That ENS M looks pretty textbook. Remains to be seen if that solution comes close to reality. Will be interesting to watch future cycles to see if something at least close to this holds. It sure looks like something with potential to produce but keeping expectations in check. At this point I'd say worth watching but not more than that.

First 70 degree readings of the year showing up. Just balmy out.

Just shows you how little weather of interest is currently going on or is expected to go on in the near future if you like cold and snow.

Great job Don as always. So, December to finish .70 below normal against the warmest normals we've had. Majority of this forum had no snow or nothing meaningful. I had 4" at my location from 2 events. I was close to the southern edge of things with 1" or less totals just a 30-minute drive away. Were it not for the 4 days of intense cold we would have been above normal. This from a month that many were expecting so much from. Especially the second half. We basically had a 4-day cold snap. Was a wet month (and year) at my location with 6.44" for the month and just over 52" for the year. Just was not well distributed during the summer months. I see from the latest Drought Monitor the south shore of Suffolk County is still in Moderate Drought. Hope January can deliver something better, but my expectations are low.

Yep, and it is not going to buckle easily. Going to be a while. Terrible pattern, no way to sugar coat it.

Overnight low of -0.4. Officially zero. Was 56 at 5am Friday and -0.2 at 5am this morning for a 56-degree 24-hour temperature drop. Merry Christmas to all.

Overnight low here was -0.4, officially zero. Merry Christmas to all.

Temperature free fall has leveled off here. Has been 2.7 for a while now. High point -2.

Down to 3 here.

Down to 7 here.

Nice LE streamer aimed right into downtown Buffalo last several hours. Going to be some hefty totals. Combined with the wind must look amazing.

Same here. Everything was rapidly drying and they have salt all over the place. Even worse is no rain for next week or so it will be like a dust storm with the wind for a few days on the highways. Has really gotten out of hand with treating roads for nothing over the last several years. At least here in NJ.

Down to 10 degrees here. Was 56 degrees 12 hours ago. Wind is howling and we have a fresh .10" of snow coating everything but pavement. There was so flash freeze on the roads in my area at least. Wind and drying air evaporated roadways before any freezing could take place. Even on untreated surfaces.

Currently 27 here with still light snow. Everything coated but pavement. Back edge right at my doorstep. Look to end up with about .10". Sky brightening.

The back edge of precip shield just racing through NJ. Has to be moving 50 mph. Partly sunny over SW NJ.

Currently 30 here with light wet snow but good size flakes. Was 56 at 5am. Windy!

Currently 34 here with light wet snow but good size flakes. Was 56 at 5am.

1.87" rainfall here last 24 hours. Was 56 at 5am and currently 41 degrees. Windy with gusts estimated at 30-35 mph.