MANDA

When I say ain't getting it done I mean for I95 N and W. Coastal sections still see meaningful event. Not the huge numbers of some prior runs for inland locations but nothing to sneeze at for coastal locations. Inland needs MAJOR improvements and that is not likely IMO. Still EURO against everything else along the the more coastal locations up into southeast New England.

Nope, ain't getting it done.

18Z EURO out thru 09Z Sat (63 hours) is a TAD deeper at 500 and has lost the dual sfc low and 18Z has one consolidated low further west. Based on this and slightly better look at 500 may produce a decent rest of the run. Stay tuned as they say!

Probabilities from 12Z EURO. The 6", 12" and 18" probabilities have come down across this forum as the area of probabilities has contracted at each increment. Not a good sign. Not trying to be a downer or cancel the event just stating that as we get closer to event you do not want to see probabilities coming down.

There certainly has been a trend in storm totals last several runs on the EURO no denying it. Yes, 500 does not look that bad at all but we don't live at 500 MBS. Not giving up entirely but I don't like the trends and except for the 12Z NAM there was not much to sink your teeth into. Can there be adjustments to something bigger, yes. My hopes and expectations are not high though. Expecting EPS probabilites to have come way down when they arrive in a while.

12Z EPS Mean and Control Based on these am certain individual members will have also diminished

We'll see what the EPS probabilities look like vs 00Z and 6Z mu gut tells me they will be knocked downward again.

Just posting not saying right or wrong. There is no denying though that 12Z compared to 00Z and 06Z has pulled the best totals eastward. 12Z OP verbatim is still a nice hit coastal NJ to L.I. but taken in context with the other 12Z guidance (excluding the NAM) the window is closing hard I95 N and W, of that I'm fairly certain.

While we're waiting on the EURO...a little levity.

Trends so far (excluding the NAM) this morning should be considered as a very viable option as far as an eventual outcome. I'm fully expecting the EURO to go eastward at least somewhat with 12Z cycle. I think with the upper feature onshore out west and included in 12Z cycle we should start seeing models come together. I think the 12Z runs pending the EURO are starting to put the writing on the wall. Not an ultimate final solution but trending toward one.

S/W is into the U.S. grid this morning so 12Z models have first sniff of those soundings. Will be interesting to see what CMC and EURO do. Should start to get clear trends soon. NW of I95 don't get your hopes up for big numbers...coastal sections still in the game.

A few things: Forget about the Kuchera snow maps. They seldom apply and do not apply in this case. 00Z and 06Z EURO definitely ticked east op and ensembles. Probabilities for 12"+ maximize along the NJ coast at about 40% and fall to less than 20% over NW Jersey. Probabilities for 18"+ also obviously also maximize along the NJ coast at about 25% and fall quickly as you go NW. These probabilities are down slightly from 12Z and 18Z yesterday. Ensemble "counts" have also slipped. In my opinion the EURO has definitely trended less favorable, and the changes mostly impacts areas west of I95. For coastal sections, NYC metro and LI still showing a big hit. Still 48-60 hours to go but guidance has got to start some sort of capitulation soon. The closer you get to the event the less likely you are to see significant shifts. Strong feeling on my part is that western and northern areas of this forum as going to be left out of the big numbers, high confidence on that. Not 100% but at least 75%. Coastal sections will do better but I'd temper expectations of amounts in excess of 12" and even more so in excess of 18". Trends last 24 hours do not support it and if you factor in the CMC and GFS they really don't support it. I'm riding more of a EURO solution and think CMC and GFS will trend better and the EURO will trend more eastward. Time will tell but model solutions are going to have to move one way or the other over the next 2 days.

Not saying is right, wrong or close but that NAM (yes, much beyond its best range) has classic KU written all over it.

Yes, NW of MMU on eastern edge of Lake Hopatcong in Mt. Arlington. At this point I'm not expecting my location to be in max totals but am watching this event with great interest just for the dynamical aspects of what could be.

Also from 18Z EPS the probabilities for 18"+ is 40-45% over east central NJ and 30% in and around NYC metro. Not shabby for 72-84 hours out. Again, strong signal.

Aware of past over amplifications. Not sure if that has been corrected or not. Only counter to that is there is at least moderate support from ensembles for very significant totals over parts of this forum. Exactly where is yet to be determined.

Lakehurst: Control is 25" and mean 13". 30 members at or over 12 27 members at or over 18" 11 members at or over 24"

18Z Euro individual members just as robust if not more robust than 12Z. Control is 20" NYC and mean is about 11". 29 of 51 member at or over 12". 12 members at or over 20". Signal from Euro remains strong. Control still targets SNJ with 20-25" at 10:1. Not locking into any one solution by any means but I'm impressed with persistence of op euro and ensembles up to this point. Some of the ensemble members are total crush jobs.

Mt. Holly disco is conservative for sure. Giving little love to the Euro. OKX is more bullish. Time will tell. All options still on the table. The s/w tops the ridge out west tomorrow. I'm interested in 00Z runs tonight but really interested in the 12Z runs tomorrow.

The insane part is: a) the rather tight clustering b) the slow movement and c) the looping motion of the sfc low It is no wonder the individual ensemble members offer the lofty snow totals.

EURO individual members for Central Park. About as impressive as you can ask for at this juncture. Makes a major fail seem unlikely. Odds significantly raised this EURO cycle for decent event into NYC metro. Caveat.....ensembles can and do move so I'm not taking this to the bank at this point. Will be key once the energy tops the western ridge and gets into sounding network if EURO (or for that matter GFS/CMC) make any abrupt swings. If EURO can hold tonight and then duplicate tomorrow will feel better. CMC and GFS will then also have to start adjusting west. I'm encourged by ensembles but no way is this a lock.

EURO M still have nice solid signal just not as far west as control. Still lots of time for what WILL BE adjustments in the final outcome.

Euro control not at all that different from op. Should have individual members son.

Control is insane. Saturday 18Z centered near Montauk at 967 and then sits and does a tight loop for next 6 hours before it starts to lift into the southen Gulf of Maine early Sunday.

Euro control coming in now and it looks like it is gonna rock and roll once again. In though 96 hours - 12Z Saturday with sfc low at 976 east of Ocean City and south Montauk.