MANDA
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Everything posted by MANDA
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Yes, sorry. My mistake. Fixed it.
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Advisory now posted for NW NJ counties. Thinking 1 to maybe 3" especially non paved surfaces at my location just a tad above 1000'.
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Great satellite presentation this morning. https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/PSUGOES_NE/loop30v.html Synoptic setup with this event next 24-36 hours is really unique surface and aloft. Really interesting setup. Track of upper level low means some surprises are certainly possible in terms of snowfall.
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Received .95" of very welcome rainfall here overnight. Nice November day out there today! Love it.
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Yeah, the same model that 24 hours ago had me getting 14-18" of snow in the next 24-36 hours. GFS is a follower....not a leader. Even the leaders of years past are not doing well past 3-5 days lately.
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Looks like we are entering a wetter pattern and the persistent dryness will yield to a pattern with more frequent precipitation!
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What a beautiful day! Heavy overcast, chilly temperatures, light breeze and a soaking rain with wind on the way. Been waiting months for a day(s) like this! Any snow will be a bonus. I think I do better at my location than what Mt. Holly is going with at the moment.
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I'm guessing a top 5 driest as well? Depending on what happens over the next 3-4 days.
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I don't even care that it is rain and not snow that is modeled. Will take every drop and be happy.
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First time in a very long time that the southeast ridge has not fought back to screw things up and has allowed a northern stream s/w to dig far enough south and deliver the goods. Hopefully a good sign of things to come but I'm not going to get carried away just yet. I will take the upcoming rain and thoroughly enjoy it.
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Shit! The heaviest is south and east of me !
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Said yesterday much will depend on track of upper level low and development (If any) of a triple point surface feature. That remains true this morning. Lots off room here for just frontal passage type rains. Trends today and tomorrow will be key.
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Proximity to upper low and any triple point is key to who gets what and how much. Still time for adjustments positive or negative. Anything less than .50" will be a huge disappointment.
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In addition to all the brown grass it is disheartening to drive by any of the local reservoirs around here. They are low and getting lower. Lowest I have seen in a long time.
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That 1989 warm surge was followed by a bitter cold December. Rest of the winter was a relative dud. Remember that December cold well.
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Major trof buckling into the Ohio Valley and this is about a week away so details to be worked out but model support there for 1"+ rainfall if things evolve favorably. First test of the Fall / Winter season if we are going to be playing Kick the Can again this season on colder and storminess.
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Cutter or not....I'll take it! Like to see some model persistence as well but I am optimistic.
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Nico to have a cloudy day for a change.
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Not improving in the near future. Just so glad this did not happen during the warmer months. Would have been hellish for those with ag interests not to mention home gardeners. Also not to mention what it would have done to elevate temperatures.
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Currently 44 here with a gusty wind and lots of strato cu. Looks and feels like November!
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Received .26". Just enough to dampen the fire fuel for a couple of days. Did nothing other than that and we look to be back into a drier pattern again. At least we have lost the record and near record high temperatures!
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If I get 1/4" I will call it a win.
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Summary on the dry September / October from State Climatology office at Rutgers: https://www.njweather.org/content/bone-dry-october-2024-recap
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Expansive dryness and drought continues to affect and is expanding over majority of the lower 48.
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Just way too warm out there today. I like nice weather as much as anyone but this is unpleasant at this time of year. Sorry.
