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MANDA

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Everything posted by MANDA

  1. MANDA
    Very reasonable solution IMO. Can't see it land falling much further west but some room for eastward adjustments. EURO intensity looks reasonable as well. Only game in town. MDR is about as quiet as it gets for this time of year. Classic CV tracker threats are done.
  2. MANDA
    From my point of view I'm not seeing a modeled large anticyclone aloft and as @NorthHillsWx noted possible less than favorable trough interaction.
  3. MANDA
    At this point it does not look like a significant ACE producer. We will get another named system and like 6 of the 7 named storms so far this season it will find land which is pretty impressive. Land interactions and Beryl are the highlights of this season so far, IMO. Worth watching for sure in the days ahead but not seeing blockbuster potential with this. Perhaps a situation similar to Francine as far as intensity. SST's are way warm but not seeing super favorable conditions aloft, at least at this point. We'll see where we are at the end of September but something along the lines of average number of named storms and ACE would be my call right now as we move through the second half of the season.
  4. MANDA
    Like the Ohio Valley trough positioning. Hopefully the trend holds or at least any shifts are minimal. That pattern could produce.
  5. MANDA
    Agreed. However a well positioned trough moving eastward under the block could have a lot to say about how this eventually evolves.
  6. MANDA
    So dry! Not much hope of anything worthwhile over the next 7 days. Water the fall vegetables or have them shrivel away....I water. Thankful for the decreasing sun angle. This much of a dry streak 30-60 days ago would have been brutal.
  7. MANDA
    I'd keep a close eye on potential flooding issues over the hills of upstate SC and mountains of western NC. Lot's of tropical moisture gonna get lifted and wrung out over those areas.
  8. MANDA
    For informational purposes only. Every basin in the Northern Hemisphere is now below normal by all metrics. We've just started the "3rd. Quarter" so still time for anything in the Atlantic basin. MJO forecast much more favorable later next week into first half of October so we're poised to make up some ground. Will it be enough ground to make it a hyperactive season? Likely not. Another 1 or 2 quality hits could make it very memorable though. That is on the table. Anyone still thinking we get 20+ names?
  9. MANDA
    Kind of glad in a way. Has been way to warm for me recently and sunny day after sunny day is getting boring as well. I could some cooler and cloudy days. away!
  10. MANDA
    Some good early color around my area and northward.
  11. MANDA
    You have to like the upper level low (albeit it weak) in the Ohio Valley to help pull the moisture further northward. Still a ways out there so we'll see if something close to that holds / persists.
  12. MANDA
    Another video from Brett Adair. https://x.com/i/status/1834049290219532476
  13. MANDA
    Exactly the same here.
  14. MANDA
    Reed Timmer video. https://x.com/i/status/1834032549254873472 Impressive. Solid high end Cat 1. Impressive Surge.
  15. MANDA
    689 WTNT61 KNHC 112157 TCUAT1 Hurricane Francine Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024 500 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 ...FRANCINE MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...500 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE... Francine has made landfall in southern Louisiana in the Parish of Terrebonne, about 30 miles south-southwest of Morgan City, as a Category 2 hurricane. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be near 100 mph (155 km/h). A NOS station located on Eugene Island recently reported a peak gust of 105 mph (169 km/h). The minimum pressure measured at that location was 976 mb (28.82 inches). Heavy rains and hurricane-force winds are spreading inland across southern Louisiana. Now is the time to stay inside and away from windows. Have multiple ways to receive warnings and updates. Another position update will be provided at 600 PM CDT (2300 UTC). SUMMARY OF 500 PM CDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.3N 91.3W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM WSW OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Bucci
  16. MANDA
    Looks like we should have landfall into LA marshlands south of Morgan City by 6:00 EDT update. Heading towards Houma and then New Orleans with right front quadrant.
  17. MANDA
    Looks like landfall near or a little east of Atchafalaya Wildlife Management Area then passing in between Morgan City and Houma (closer to Houma) as it moves inland later this evening.
  18. MANDA
    Maybe, but will those potentially high winds will be reflected in ground truth. Weakening systems at landfall have a more difficult time of getting max winds to mix down to the ground. Let's see what the obs. show at landfall. Still believe surge will be most impactful parameter. There will of course still be wind damage and power outages. Fortunately the large areas of marsh land along the LA coast will absorb most of the surge.
  19. MANDA
    We're at the mid-point of the 2024 Hurricane season and here is where we stand. Nothing hyperactive about it. Potential system off the southeast coast next week would have various U.S. impacts. Atlantic systems being watched: No likely U.S. treats from any of them.
  20. MANDA
    Look at the bright side....we will all get to play several spirited games of Kick the Can ! An annual Winter season tradition of late.
  21. MANDA
    Dry period getting underway. Little to no rainfall next 7 to maybe 10 days. Late season veggie crops will need to be watered. Thankfully lower sun angle in play.
  22. MANDA
    May be a combination of all those factors. Up until recently the ITCZ / Monsoon trough has been displaced north. Only in the last week or so has is drifted more southward. Regardless, there are other factors at play because the western part of the basin has been quiet. I think that issue is more related to the La Nina not being near as robust as was forecast = more unfavorable shear. Better than half the season lies ahead so we'll see what happens going forward.
  23. MANDA
    Minimum temps this morning:
  24. MANDA
    Low this morning of 46. Perfect weather!
  25. MANDA
    Biggest question in the tropics today is do we get to "peak day" September 10 without another named system. Certainly looks like we make it to 9/7 with nothing. Big numbers forecast (20+) now all but a sure fail. Still lots of time left for some notable storms and hits but we're not getting to 20+. All about quality over quantity at this point. Normal ACE to date is 41.1 and we are at 51.1 currently. Normal ACE by 9/10 is 58.2 so we are likely to fall to below normal by then. Normal ACE by 9/7 is where we are now at 51.1. Not calling the season over just being realistic on the big number totals that have been out there for months. One forecast (will not mention names) had a named storm total of 33. I'm sure I'll get a or two but so be it.
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