It’s perfect. Duel waves. The first lays down 2-4” across the NW parts of the forum and the second flush hits 95 and between the two the whole area gets 6”+
Not true we got a 1-3” snow in early January but you dismissed that. Dude it’s ok. I’m not picking on you. You be you. But you gotta admit looking back it was kinda funny to go on a rant about needing snow 3 weeks after we got a hecs for Xmas and while all the models were already showing the next epic pattern developing.
The thermal boundary is oriented and located almost exactly where I would want it for this type of pattern to work. Have to see if that ends up being the reality but I have no issue with the current projections.
EPS looks good for the period of Jan 20-25 but not focused on any one wave...there is a bit of an uptick around the 21st compared to the rest of the period. But it favors some wave sliding by under us during that window.
EPS is similar...the wave around the 19-20th is iffy, after that any follow up waves in the next week would favor snow given the trough axis and thermal boundary.
On the GEFS the wave around the 19-20 is the most iffy wrt thermals, but the GEFS would indicate we would likely be on the snowy side of any waves in the week after that.
EPS details still rolling in
GFS actually shows how that kind of pattern, if it actually ends up close to the current longwave projections, would likely play out. 3 waves, one misses north, one south, and one flush hit. They aren't all going to take the same exact track and if we get that kind of SW to NE oriented thermal boundary with the cold centered to our NW we are likely to score eventually as those waves keep riding the boundary. They wont all hit, but they won't likely all miss either.
Exactly... each of these waves in this type of pattern will depend on where the boundary is as they approach and the easiest way to get a win here is to have a NS SW pass by ahead of one of the waves and suppress the thermal boundary to our south as a STJ wave approaches from the southwest.
But that kind of intricate balancing act is not the type of thing that will be resolved at long leads like in a blocking regime. None of those storms in 2014 or 2015 were resolved outside 72 hours.