psuhoffman

We also lost the handful of “crazy uncle” members that thought the cutter next week could be snow from day 9/10.

N@Ralph Wiggum I warned you about the NAO. When I researched for that really pessimistic post I made in early Jan that some got upset because it really crushed our hopes for this winter...I said we needed to see a base change flip by mid January or it was trouble. That’s because I found no examples of similar pacific patterns with this string of a AO/NAO combo for the whole month of January that flipped better in February. All the examples where the AO/NAO flipped for February the AK vortex +NAO pattern wasn’t as entrenched or as strong. All the good Feb examples showed signs of a flip up top by Jan 20th. At this point there is very little chance the AO or NAO improves before very late Feb or March and I’m skeptical it happens at all. Things are following the progression those analogs indicated. What could chance is weakening the AK vortex and getting enough epo ridge to maybe give us a chance. That’s all I’m rooting for. Things are evolving to what I expected. A less crappy look where we could get lucky. But by no means a good look. AK cold can work but the issue is the shot is dumping west first and by the time it translates east it’s weak sauce. After that we need the epo to help some. Guidance keeps kicking the can on that and pulling it further west of where we need it. Unfortunately climo for this years pac and NAM base state is winning over long range guidance everytime.

@Ji lol wow he is pulling out the last play he had left I guess. Thing is that wouldn’t end well. Given the trough axis if we did get a full phased bomb it would cut to Chicago.

Yup...I do think it’s undeniable that “bad” years are getting worse. DCs ability to eek its way to something like 8” in a crap year like this is being hurt by marginal events becoming harder and harder to work. The early Jan storm was an example where 30 years ago DC might have got 2” instead of .2. This weekend if some light precip does make it in maybe in the past DC adds another 1-2” but now it’s likely white rain. So I think what we’re already crap years are worse. 3” instead of 8”. 1” instead of 5”. And that sucks but is that really the big deal? Would that many people be happy if DC ended up with 8” instead of 3”? Likely the same people would be whining because by the standards of the past that 8” would be crappy. So long as our “good patterns” still produce that’s the most important thing. We just haven’t had any. If we start to see good patterns not working anymore that’s when alarms will go off for me. It’s probably coming eventually but I don’t see that yet.

We have 2 threats I see...a trailing wave after the cutter...or a west to east wave around day 11-13. But we would need it to stay progressive. Amplified systems would cut.

Not shocked. It wasn’t the kind of wave that was likely to impact the PV much. And every attempt to dent it has been brushed aside with ease. I’m focused on how to get a progressive wave type deal. That’s all we can try to work with given we’re likely stuck with a raging +AO/NAO. Maybe March but honestly my gut says the NAO stays + straight through.

None of the 3 24 hour networks are quality news. Way too much punditry. Im not sure if CNN has become as bad as Fox wrt false or misleading news because I stopped watching it. We were better off when people got their news from respected outlets and there was ONE news not alternate narratives to fit different agendas.

Yea it was good up in PA but not nearly that good. Had about 50” up there. It must have come down pretty hard in that late March storm then because I don’t remember it being a long drawn out event. That band just missed me in PA.

Thanks. I’ve always wondered what that storm in 2014 did here. I was in Pine Grove PA. We had 8” there. One of my favorite storms. No lull. Just 8 hours of steady heavy wet snow. That was a rare juiced up progressive wave. I’m still kinda bummed I missed 2014. We had good snow up in PA but got fringed a lot compared to down here that winter. A few of those good storms here I was just super cold and dry up there. How much did you get from that really late March coastal in 2014 that started as rain but then stalled and hit this area with the upper low?

It’s our fault. That’s obviously what viewers want to see or they wouldn’t be doing it.

It’s the previous 6 hours precip rate.

No joke many years ago I flipped on Fox and Friends accidentally having never actually watched it and I thought it was a parody. The way they were “acting” and exaggerating their expressions and reactions so over the top...then I realized it was REAL and it was a depressing sobering moment. Not for any political reason. I don’t think the segment was even political. Just that it was so transparently fake yet so many people liked that kind of “news” production. I don’t think CNN lately is any better.

Kinda...except honestly whenever it’s a borderline temp issue it almost always ends up breaking good up here. So I get the excitement of the suspense but with a payoff. If I was in the city I’d want cold smoke every time. But those really cold waves tends to be hours of light to moderate snow. I do enjoy when it’s puking heavy wet snow bombs up here more. Some of my favorite storms here weren’t the numerous 2’+ storms but just a good 6-10” wet snow paste job like October 2011 or the early Dec 2009 storm, not the big one, or the Feb 2016 storm that was a 33 degree 7” snowstorm up here. November 2018 would have been higher on my list except I was stuck in Baltimore and didn’t get home until the snow was ending. That sucked. I also missed some of the really heavy wet snow that fell the first day of the 2 day 14” March 20-21 2018 storm. The second day was colder dry snow but the first day was 8” of really heavy wet snow but I only caught the last hour of the good rates.

They simply use the output of each member to calculate odds. Eps is less jumpy because it has more members and more spread typically. Gefs is underdispursed. NCEP is aware of it. The whole system is being changed to operate off the new FV3 core soon. I’m not sure an index probability would be better because the index is based off the individual members output. And their results are impacted by that too. We only know what the indexes are now. (Bad just in case you weren’t sure) but we don’t know in 5/10/15 days...those estimates are based off the models so can be just as wrong. There are some pattern analog progression models but they don’t seem to be any more reliable because patterns often evolve different based on different factors. There are SST long range models but they mostly busted BAD last year and this year. I don’t blame them...I busted both years because I tend to lean heavily on SST analogs for long range and lately the correlations are failing. I need to look more into some of the methods Anthony and Tom use wrt angular momentum, walker cell strength. Those correlations seem to be more important that canonical sst anomalies in a changing climate where waters are in a warmer state. I know HM busted this year but he has stated that was partly because he broke some of his own rules this year. Everyone makes mistakes!

I’ll admit I agree with @Ji on one thing. Missing a heavy wet snow is depressing. That is my favorite. When we snow at 32* and it’s paste that sticks to everything and perfect for making a snowman or fort with the kids. Of course the problem is for me to get a wet snow is invariably has to be raining in DC. Not that I’ll kick the idea of 8” of cold smoke on the gfs out of bed but those kinds of storms always have less suspense and excitement.

You’re welcome. You weren’t interpreting it wrong. It means exactly what it says. The DC area is between the 50-60% chance of 3”. Is what it is. I’m just adding historical context. The fact that it’s all in a 5 day window though actually does make it more impressive. It’s not from a shotgun effect of 5 or 6 low level threats over 15 days. That’s typically a not so good thing. Additionally, I know it being 10 days away sucks but seeing that high probability for events that are 9+ days out is actually impressive. It’s hard to get high odds at that range, for obvious reasons. Keep in mind that map is very course and won’t pick up local meso scale features like elevation well. You are way closer to the 60 than the 50 so you are likely about 58 or 59% and maybe more since you have some oragraphic help. DC is probably about 52% guessing from that map.

Well there is absolutely nothing the first 7 days...so it’s really a 50% week 2. And that’s above climo. Avg chance of 3” of snow during that week is about 25%. Is it the best probability map I’ve ever seen no. But it’s better than those weeks of 10-20%

This is the one they want

That looks too much like 2014-15. I want hecs Deal with it

I get fringed so you know it’s real.

Let it go. Incoming on 18z gfs. 1041 high on top of a stj wave train.

That’s because we don’t believe in global warming...

This is actually a very good look for getting progressive waves with cold around...this has worked before..the key is getting the SE ridge suppressed just enough. That can happen various ways...a well times TPB lobe rotating across to our north... a series of waves where the first knocks down heights, that was how we got so many waves in 2014 and 2015. It isn't an HECS look but it is a snowy one. The GEFS and GEPS not so much...so lets bank on the EPS dominance right now.

So do it... talk about the long range weather however you want to talk about it. All you do is complain about what other people are talking about and how they are talking about it.