psuhoffman

I'll tell you what happens...in Jackson Hole... Still not too late...couple flights left to Idaho Falls.... And keep in mind these are 10-1 ratios...JH will probably be closer to 15-1 in town and 20-1 on the mountain...if not higher than that.

On a serious note, I actually ran the numbers a few years ago in a purely statistical analysis (no pattern or actual forecasts just from the numbers) and there is no predictive value for snowfall from one year to the next. The illusion that we are more likely to get snow after bad years is perception and confirmation bias. Yes...going into or looking back at any period LONG runs of anomalously good or bad snowfall is unlikely simply because getting an anomaly to happen multiple times in a row is unlikely. But once one year is over...regardless of the outcome, the odds of getting more or less snowfall the following year is not changed at all. Think of it like a coin toss. The odds of getting 5 heads in a row is about 3%. So before starting the process the odds of 5 heads is very very low. BUT...once you have flipped 4 heads in a row the odds of getting that 5th is still 50/50. The odds of that last flip is NOT affected by the first 4. Snowfall is like that. Now that is purely from a statistical analysis. There are some multi year patterns like the NAO that can stack the odds of multiple years, but even those things only move the needle a little bit as you can get a -NAO year in the midst of a long term +NAO cycle...or you can get a year like 2014 with a lot of snow without a -NAO. But right now its impossible to predict patterns next year anyways. Enso/NAO/PDO...all could go in any direction by next year. NAO is definitely in a + cycle but the fact we are near solar minimum would increase the chances of a long term phase flip sometime soon... I am pretty sure you were just making a half joking post but I wanted to post this since I actually ran the numbers a while ago and there is absolutely no truth to the "were due" index either good or bad.

DUDE>>>> don't tempt the snow gods...they are viscous unmerciful beasts

probably when the AO isnt +5

For my location, worst since 1973..but there is a good chance I will eek out a few more inches up here and pass 2002. That would still make it the worst winter by far in the 14 years I've been up here.

I mostly agree with this...its why I have stepped back (along with a busy schedule) quite a bit from tracking unless something makes it into short range. It seems obvious, as expected, that the raging +AO/NAO is going to continue through most if not all of February. I am starting to have serious doubts about any improvement in March either...in both 2017 and 2018, for example, there were a lot of hints and indications the NAO would flip a long time before it actually did. I see nothing to indicate a weakening PV right now. However, we can sometimes get SOME snow in a +AO/NAO regime. There are some truths...one being a big storm is highly highly highly unlikely... but something like what this weekend advertised is actually realistic and how we CAN get some snow in a bad regime with luck. A weak progressive shortwave timed up well within the larger longwave pattern. Anything too amplified will cut way north of us. So we are left rooting for these weak discreet systems that can time themselves up just right in the short windows of opportunity we get behind those larger waves when the boundary might clear south of us for a couple days. We scored a 2-4" snow in Feb 2017 during a similarly suck pattern from that kind of thing. We almost got a snow that way in Feb 2018 similarly but it ended up trending just north of us at the last minute. Those things are always long shots from distance because they have to be the goldilocks vort. Just strong enough to create the lift we need...not too strong to lift north of us...timed up perfectly after a wave that pressed the front south... and from range any one of those factors is likely to be just a little off and so the storm goes poof. But something else like that could pop up inside 72 hours. Or this wave comes back. Who knows...but we are left searching for this type of thing because any major longwave feature that can be seen well from range is very likely to end up a cutter in this pattern. You are right...the odds of hitting any any specific threat are very low...but I don't think people were silly to be tracking this weekend. Had it made it to Today as a legit threat I would have started to give in some cred. It wasn't a good bet because of the delicate nature but it was the exact type of thing we need to get lucky in this god awful pattern.

The tools show exactly what they say. What that run thinks is the probability of 3”. If most of that probability it based on one event and it busts...it changes. Because the run was wrong. One run looking really good is not that strong a signal. When we start seeing multiple runs over days AND it’s supported by an actual good pattern then we have a strong signal. That hadn’t happened this year because the pattern has sucked. But in the past we have seen ensembles indicate snow at long range and be right. And frozen does look to be “closer” at times the next 2 weeks so that’s why guidance has looked better at times. Still not good enough.

That’s different...its going to be a razor edge between places that get dumped and places that are mostly spring the next few weeks. Some guidance suggesting we could right on that line.

What does goose taste like?

Been really busy. This weekend is starting to look like a very good chance. Basically the best way to make this pattern work...front clears then a nice virt pass timed up before the next ridge comes. These waves have a tendency to juice up a bit at the end too. 2.4” at DCA seems like a good idea to me.

I’ll be rooting for you all like crazy here while I’m there...

Yea I’ve learned a “little” about the climo there from my extensive visits. I definitely made the right choice with Jackson. They will get way more this week plus another wave clips then over the weekend that stays mostly north of CO. Additionally they stay north of the front so Saturday it might hit 45 in Aspen but Jackson stays below 32 and could snow all weekend. A sunny 45 degree day can destroy the snow conditions quick. Someone took the last cheap flight into Jackson right before me so I got a flight into Idaho Falls and I’ll make the little under 2 hour drive. That’s not bad. Plan to ski Saturday-Monday.

I think I’m going to try Jackson. I did a little more research and found that apparently the same happened in Aspen last year with the Icon and found similar articles and an npr piece saying the exact same thing about Aspen and Steamboat. I haven’t been out west much lately and it seems the new cheap passes have caused more crowds everywhere. Plus I talked to one of the local reporters and apparently the crowds haven’t been nearly as bad this year. I guess year one everyone flooded in. Plus last year was an epic snow season after a bad one. I guess if I’m going to sit in a line I’d rather do it hitting off a bucket list item. I’ve already skid most of Colorado extensively. The cost of a flight into Jackson is about 450 more but offset by better rates on hotels near JH than Aspen. So in the end it’s only about 150 more to do JH.

I was leaning Jackson but this has me spooked. Sounds awful... https://www.jhnewsandguide.com/news/town_county/resort-is-a-bit-buried-with-snow-crowds/article_b04fc131-9a96-56c6-a6ef-7714e621618d.html

Actually thinking THIS weekend. It looks like most of the Rockies are getting dumped this week. With so many going Pres week I thought the weekend before shouldn’t be as bad. I haven’t been to Jackson in many years and when I went I was recovering from an injury and took it easy. Never made it into some of the better terrain. I love the trees at Aspen and Snowmass too though. Both look to get a lot of snow but Jackson stays colder. Aspen might warm up some next weekend and lead to crud. Jackson looks to stay north of the front. But I’ve heard the last couple years crowds have become crazy there.

@Bob Chill have you heard anything wrt if Jackson Hole has really become as bad as some people say with lift lines? I am deciding between there or Aspen as my final choices and kind of want to hit up Jackson but there has been chatter from locals that’s the crowds are insane since the Icon pass started. But I know sometimes they exaggerate to keep people away. I don’t mind some lines but definitely don’t need to waste my one ski trip this year waiting in 45 min + lift lines. Have you heard anything from friends our west? Thanks. ETA: anyone else with knowledge please chime in

32* snowing

There are pop up blockers yes.

The traffic is getting out of control along 70. I almost missed an 8:45 pm flight out of Denver when I left Vail at 3pm because it took over 4 hours to get to Denver. Took an hour to get to Breck from Frisco a few years ago over spring break. I shy away from that area anymore, rather drive a bit up front to avoid that crap during my vacation time. I used to ski Vail a lot. Blue Sky at Vail is awesome but it’s so hard to get to it. Takes forever to get through the crowds as the base then 3-4 lifts to get back there. It keeps getting worse everytime. Don’t even bother with Copper on a busy weekend. Waited an hour to get on the 6pack lift. Steamboat or further away and has great tree skiing but it can take forever to get out of the base because there aren’t enough ways up the mountain. That’s why I’m leaving Aspen this year. Aspen Snowmass never seem to get too crowded. I guess the extra 2 hour drive keeps people away. They get less snow but that only matters early season. Once there is a 5’+ base you don’t really notice the difference between an 8” and 12” storm in terms of skiing. Still considering SLC but it’s harder to get a last minute flight at a reasonable rate. I’ve noticed I can still find a Friday night $300 flight into Denver even until Wed but by then it’s like 700+ to get into SLC. I could book further in advance but then I risk so many things going wrong. Weather turns and I spend all that money to ski crud, or either myself or someone else in the family gets sick. Don’t want to leave my wife alone to deal with a sick kid or if she is sick. I’d rather wait until the last minute to reduce the risk of all that.

Ive been to CO about 20 times. Have family in Denver and go skiing there a lot. I agree with everything Bob said. If you do decide on Vail, I often stay in Avon which is 15 minutes up 70 from Vail and has some nice hotels for much less. Beaver Creek resort is also right there. Are you going to ski/board?

Yup....heading out there soon. Maybe next weekend. Might try Aspen this time.

I have a dusting of snow on my lawn from last night. I’ll call that a win.

@Maestrobjwa CCB refers to the cold conveyor belt. I think to fully explain this I should do a quick overview of how most mid latitude cyclones work First of all low pressure typically forms along the boundary of cold and warm air...as air moves across the boundary to try to bring equilibrium to the imbalance. This movement of air creates lower pressure where the air is vacating faster than it is filling in. A low can really intensify when an area of divergence in the upper levels crosses over the surface area of lower pressure. These areas of divergence are typically found in front of either long-wave troughs or Rossby waves or smaller shortwave troughs embedded in the flow. This divergence aloft creates lift below it to "fill" the void and this lift (rising air) from the surface lowers the pressure as the lift outpaces the rate air is filling the surface void. On top of that the rising air cools and condenses causing precip but that process creates latent heat release which causes more lift (warm air rises). This creates a feedback loop that intensifies low pressure. Early in the life cycle of a developing low pressure area they are typically just waves along the temperature boundary Precipitation breaks out along the boundary where the flow ahead of the developing low pressure begins to cross the "boundary" to the north of the wave. The warmer air crossing the boundary has to rise over the denser colder air and this lift creates WAA (warm air advection) precipitation. (rising air cools and condenses creating precip) Showery precip usually exists along the cold front to the south of the low where cold air is undercutting the warmer air cause it to rise...but since this displacement happens much faster the precip there is sometimes more intense (thunderstorms or convective showers) but short lived. Many waves never make it beyond this stage if there are factors inhibiting their intensification. But if a low can amplify and deepen it will develop a circulation at several different levels As it develops this structure...the cold conveyor belt begins to bring moisture that is to the east of the low from the warm conveyor belt to the west of the low. As this happens the storm will begin to develop the classic comma head structure seen below. That precip to the west of the low track is often commonly called the "CCB" since it is a function of a healthy system developing precip in response to the cold conveyor belt transport of moisture west of the low track. Additionally the precip to the west of the surface low track is not driven by WAA as much as other forces and so can have a colder thermal profile, especially in marginal events. Seen above there the dry conveyor belt begins to cause the "dry slot" that you often get near the track of the surface low pressure. Below I have zoomed in on what is going on in the "CCB". This region in the "CCB" develops a deformation zone...a region where the atmosphere is being pulled in different directions at different levels. The convergence of the DCB, CCB, WCB, as well as the sheer at different levels created by the mid and upper level low pressures creates instability in this area. Where the moisture convergence from the CCB bringing moisture in off the WCB meets this instability you can get intense snow bands. This is what they call the "deform" band. One of the best examples of a deform band was from the February 2006 storm. This radar is from the NYC area but this same band impacted our area...I think the Columbia MD area got 20" because they were under this band for several hours. You can see on the radar loop the forces I described above at work. Later in the life cycle of a mid latitude cyclone, because the cold air often outpaces the advance of the warm air...the cold catches up and the low ends up cut off from the warm air advection...at this point we say it has occluded and it looks like this. At this stage the intensification period is over and the storm typically begins to weaken. But during this stage you can often see snowfall wrapped up even under the surface low instead of displaced to the NW of it. Hope this helped some. You can ask any follow up questions also...others feel free to add anything to this.