psuhoffman

First of all...1996 isn't the ONLY nina fluke. There was a year in the early 1900s...I can't remember if it was 1905 or 1909 but I remember years ago when doing research there was a nina year around then that was an epic snow year in DC. When the NAO is negative during a nina we actually can get snow. The problem is the pacific pattern correlated to a nina is also correlated to a +NAO so often we get both a bad pacific AND atlantic in a nina. Kind of like this year. This is the composite of all the Nina years in the last 30 years OTHER than 1996. Look at the typical pacific pattern But look at the pacific in 1996 The pacific pattern never aligned with a typical nina response. Or in other words...the Nina didn't "couple" with the atmosphere in the pacific. Kind of the same as how last year the nino never coupled and we failed to get the expected results. That could have happened for various reasons. Could have been a disconnect with the AAM or the walker cells or the mjo. I would have to do a case study and I don't have time right now. Maybe that is something worth doing sometime. The low solar state certainly could have contributed to enhancing the blocking...but the fact the pacific wasn't actually in a typical nina pattern that is hostile to blocking likely had at least as much if not more to do with it.

he got what he wanted...affirmation of his persecution complex

I decided this winter was very likely going to suck a long time ago. I said as much. Got the emotional reaction over with, and moved on with my life. I am still tracking. I will still track to the bitter end whether we get anymore snow or not. There can be a fluke in a bad pattern. There could be a transient pattern that is less hostile and we sneak some snow in. Or maybe we get a march flip like in 2018, although I doubt it, that season had a much less hostile base state than this one does. So I am resigned to the fact we are unlikely getting much snow this year...have been since around Xmas. I don't expect much. But I never give up on a fluke snowfall and I am not having some emotional fit about it. It will snow again...if not this year next year. Put me on whatever list that attitude falls into.

I guess we will just have to carry on without him... godspeed to us all

That’s fine...I don’t want to get into the “politics” I just took issue with the insinuation you all were playing favorites or not being equitable.

There are way more factors involved than just enso and solar.

For the record I like DT. He has no filter and gets too emotional sometimes. That combo gets him in trouble. But for the most part I dig his passion and he is always honest about what he thinks/feels.

They’ve known for a while. There is no way they didn’t see the same things some of us did a month ago! It’s just the calculus has finally reached the point it’s not worth spinning anymore. They milked as much time as they can before they risk so much damage to their reputation that it’s not worth it just to string along the 3 people who haven’t figured it out yet. If an amateur can figure it out a month ago I just don’t think it’s credible they just “saw the light” this week.

Most of the -NAO periods were displaced after the minimum. Minimums happened in 1976, 1986, 1996, 2008. With the exception of 1996 the periods of extreme blocking cane AFRER minimums. 1977-80. 1987-88. 2010-11. Perhaps 1996 wasn’t as solar related as we thought. Maybe the blocking in 1998 which we forget because it didn’t accompany any snow was in response to the 1996 minimum. Either way the stronger correlation is after minimum not before and it’s not and every year 100% correlation. If we don’t get a period of blocking in the next few years then I would say WTF

Y’all complained when those maps showed 20-30% everyday. That’s what you get!

No one needs to be defensive. Everyone is free to feel however they want. And it’s not like I’m totally thrilled about this. Im just trying to lesson the misery. Serenity now and all that jazz.

3 points to consider 1. I highly doubt we suddenly had a radical climate shift. We’ve had periods like this before. 1948-1953 was awful. There was an awful run in the mid 1970s. 1989-1992 was mostly crap and so was 1997-2002, 2007-2009, and 2011-2013. Also look at a long term NAO chart and you will note it runs in cycles with multi year positive and negative phases. Also note there are typically positive cycles preceding solar minimums and negative cycles following them. We are about to hit a solar minimum so it’s not crazy that we have had a multi year positive. It’s also not crazy that we had a rough patch for snow following what was an epic 3 year heater. If we go another 3/4 years without any winter -NAO then I might start to worry. Right now this is still within historical norms. 2. I showed a while ago that we have had patterns like this before and how bad they all sucked. It’s not like this type of winter never happened before or we used to snow a lot in this pattern. I do think DC is losing some marginal events and that what was a 6” year 50 years ago might be a 3” year now. So bad years are even worse maybe. But I don’t thInk the odds of a really good year have changed appreciably. If we start to see what should be good patterns not working because it’s too warm that would be a red flag. This pattern always sucked. 3. What if your fear is right. What if we did flip and it’s never going to snow here much anymore? Will getting upset every 6 hours when the gfs doesn’t show snow change anything or make it any better?

I was reading some old storm threads from years ago and it struck me how many voices are missing. And I don’t think it’s just because things have sucked. I went back to other years that sucked and posters like HM/Ian/Matt/Ender/Wes and many others were contributing in discussions even when things weren’t doing amazing. And lately even when we do get a legit threat most of them barely even pop in at all. I wonder what happened and I really hope it’s not a trend. It’s been such a slow bleed that I hasn’t even realized it until I went back and saw what the threads years ago looked like.

No I was pretty pessimistic late summer early fall. I meant more in November. I thought by then things looked “ok”. Never great but years with a mish mosh of mediocre that were warm neutral enso in the past tended to be ok. I got that part way wrong.

Weeklies week 3 week 4 week 5 week 6 but they flip the pattern around March 15 so we can enjoy a cold miserable spring!!!

It’s ok even if I don’t get another inch I’ll be alright.

I agree guidance degraded that look. But didn’t I warn you about that a week ago? The way the pattern was progressing it was unlikely the canadien ridge was going to be able to do much damage to the tpv as it briefly traversed the edges of the NAO domain. And the ensembles always has some doubt built into the means. So yes the look changed but it did exactly what I thought it would so I guess I’m not lamenting it.

About 11” I think. I’d have to go into my records and add to all the minor events in Dec but I’m not doing that. Too depressing. But it’s close to 11”.

Your last argument made more sense

1. That’s an op at range. The ensembles never looked as good as that even but... 2. That’s not a true NAO block. That’s more of a WAR on roids, and it’s transient because... 3. There is no 50/50 there to help pump that ridge into the west NAO domain where we want it or to create confluence in the northeast. 4. The epo and pna ridges are displaced west of ideal It’s close to a good look but not. This is where we actually want those features centered.

Curious what you thought looked really bad in the fall. Turns out some of Tom and HMs insights wrt the walker cell state and AAM were right but purely from classical analogs that matched a weak neutral enso with descending qbo and a similar north pac sst config the results were ok. Not great but not like this. This turned out like a Nina. Tom nailed that.

It’s never happened. Using the local coop here back to 1989 then Westminster before that...back to 1942 the worst Feb/March combination was 2002 with 1.5” total. So no we probably won’t get blanked. But a lot of the analogs to this years pattern were the most dreadful years. 2002 is one. 1988 only had 2.6” from Feb 1 on from a bunch of insignificant cartoppers. Same in 1950. 2008 only has a couple 1-2” snows. So we will luck our way to some snow. That’s 99%. An inch here or there somehow is almost a sure thing. But honestly if we get 2” the rest of the way from a couple insignificant events I don’t care. Honestly adding 2” to my current total won’t make me feel any better. If it’s not going to be a legit snowstorm I’d rather just stay warm and get to spring.

I dunno I have a bad feeling the mjo is about to go ape into warm phases and slam the door on February after next week. But I just saw JB actually tossed in the towel and said the same thing after seeing the mjo forecasts and so now I have to reconsider my stance.

It was never really THAT good. The canadien ridge temporarily traversed the NAO domain for a few runs. It still does but it happens while we torch. But it’s way too transient to do any good or bully the pattern. It’s not a block. Just a weak transient ridge. The real issue is again the epo centers itself too far west setting up an RNA pattern.

People are really driving themselves crazy looking at each run with expectations. I think I’m less frustrated right now because I got the disappointment out of the way a month ago. Back when I made the now infamous “winters over” post I was depressed about it. Not really, but in a this sucks a wasted winter sense. And I dealt with it. Then moved on. Now I don’t expect anything but suck. Every major global pattern driver is a train wreck. I watch just in case a fluke happens or a pattern change comes but I don’t expect anything to work out. So when it doesn’t I’m not distraught.