psuhoffman

in fairness he admitted his excitement is mostly due to lack of anything else to be excited about

lol I have no change in my forecast until I actually see what falls and then I will adjust/spin accordingly. Until then keep paying your subscription.

I suppose a true "cutter" is a storm that bombs out into the lakes...but we have come to call any system that goes to our NW a cutter. And there most definitely can be a track to our NW in a progressive pattern if there is too much ridging along the east coast and no blocking.

As long as it totally caves on the long range pattern too I will forgive it this once. Seriously though...I know the running joke is "why does the model with no snow always win" but that isnt true when we are in a pattern conducive for snow. Granted it does't seem that way but that is because 80% of the time we aren't in a good pattern for snow. But that is our climo. But when we know the overall longwave pattern isn't conducive for a snowstorm...going with the model with the snowy outcome, even when it's the euro, is a bad idea. I know you know that...just pointing it out before we get the typical comments.

One saving grace about the PAC ridge pattern is it will promote enough cross polar flow that there should be ample cold in western and northern North America. That means things can flip FAST if we can get some mechanism to get that into the east.

@Bob Chill That look matches the "better" enso analogs I posted earlier today way more than the disgusting looks the guidance were tossing out 24-48 hours ago. It's a subtle difference...the main one being the higher heights pressing the pattern over the top from Scandinavia and the EPO ridge poking over the top more as well. Not only is that look better for our prospects the rest of January...but it is a MUCH better omen for our prospects in February. That look tends to roll over into a pretty good pattern more often than the one we were getting yesterday. Hopefully this trend continues and we may be able to open that escape hatch after all.

Showmethesnow and some others are all over the medium range threats. The upper low pass this weekend is interesting. My gut says the low wraps up a little too late for anything significant in our area. That is usually how these go, but that H5 pass is good enough to think a little surprise is possible. The day 6 thing depends on 2 things imo. If we can either get the energy crashing into the west to back off and not compress the flow which prevents the system digging under us in the east....OR if we can get a little more ridging near Hudson bay. There has been a trend towards some ridging there...a bit more and that can compensate and act as a bootleg block. We actually have had a lot of decent snow events from that bootleg look. But... looking ahead I wanted to post something hopeful for long range. I already posted the analogs to a January central pac ridge +NAM regime and its not good. BUT...I was thinking almost all of them are either Nina years or cold neutral following Nina years. There were no good enso comps within that set. The fact that all of them were nina years might indicate this year could have more a chance at variability than those did when the enso supported that ridge alingment more than the current sst does. Look at the SST anomalies for the years I posted before...NOTHING like this year. Almost the complete opposite actually. So I went looking for somewhat similar years where there was at least a 1-2 week pattern like what is coming during a similar enso. I will admit this took some liberties. I did restrict it to January patterns but I had to cherry pick weeks from different parts of the month to find comps. Admittedly there really are NO great comps other than nina years. And admittedly the NAM state isnt as awfull as it is right now in these 5 comp patterns I found...but overall its a close enough look to think this might have some merit. There were similar patterns for a portion of January in 1952, 1960, 1962, 1979, and 2006. 1952 was a borderline weak nino warm neutral enso. 1960 was a neutral following a nino, 1962 was neutral following a neutral. 1979 was a neutral following a weak nino, and 2006 was a very weak nina following a nino. Those are all much better enso matches. This is the composite of the January periods that looked somewhat similar to this year. This is the February patterns for those years For the purposes of scientific integrity I will admit that the methodology used to get these matches was more biased and subjective than the last set of analogs. But it is true that those others do not match our current SST or ENSO at all. These years are better matches in that regard. These years are also perfect PAC matches. They are not as good wrt to the AO/NAO though, especially for the whole month. But we don't know yet what the second half of January will be. We can assume the first half will feature a PAC ridge +NAM regime but the second half could flip enough to alter the monthly mean look some. But for these to be valid we need to see the NAM state start to flip soon. What differentiated these analogs from the others the most was that by mid January the NAM state was in transition to a negative AO/NAO combo that lasted the rest of those winters. There were absolutely no examples of a similar pac look that improved at all absent a better AO/NAO state. One other interesting thing to note, and someone asked about this yesterday. Most of the years that improved did so by retrograding the pac ridge NOT progressing it. My take away from this... if we start to see improvements up top by the middle of January the door is open to a much better outcome...and that is supported by enso analogs. But those years this pattern didn't lock in for more than 2 weeks or so. The years where this NAM/PAC combo locks in for more than 2/3 weeks or so...its permanent and lasts pretty much all winter. We are still a ways away from being at that point...and there have been some baby steps in the long range trends wrt the NAM state. So when factoring in the enso and sst there may be more hope than the previous analog look suggests.

AO

It’s not oversimplified at all. The strong convection there will feed the central pac ridge which feeds the full latitude western trough which pumps the eastern ridge. We fought this last year too.

If we get an epo ridge with a +NAM we actually want a -PNA. Get the epo to ridge over the top of the pna trough and get an elongated positively tilted trough and we can score waves. A big full latitude western ridge with a +NAM is just cold and dry.

Anywhere but there is better. If the NAO tanks retrogression is more likely. If not progression. Either is better than where it is projected now.

We definitely agree on the ways out. I wish I had confidence with that Feb assessment though. The 4 top pattern analogs right now that keep showing up in the day 8 and 11 ensembles are 1952, 1989, 2002, and 2008. They all pretty much sucked wall to wall. Plus the other years I found skimming every January with a similar h5 look to what guidance is hammering were all a horror show straight through to March also. Im not saying I’m sold we don’t recover. I don’t have the answers. Anything can happen. The one comp year that did flip better, 2006, is in the analogs too so there is that. And you know in past years that started bad I’ve stayed optimistic and preached things might turn. But looking at what has happened in past years when January looked like this gives me no confidence February is any better. This look is the one our complete dumpster fire fail years are made of. Even so we will have threats regardless. Flukes. Maybe we get a Hudson Bay ridge for a time. Those can make something work in an otherwise shite pattern. A trailing wave. We might get lucky. And records are made to be broken.

@Bob Chill if these run over run trends continue we could have a decent pattern by Feb.

Thanks Wes. I found similar results with my 5”+ BWI snowfall study. It seems if we are in a -NAM state the PNA becomes less crucial. But if the AO is + we need either a perfect EPO ridge or PNA ridge to have much of a chance. I found the NAO numerical index to be misleading sometimes. Often a snow event followed the NAO blocking. If you look at the time of the event the NAO was neutral or positive but several days prior had been a nice blocking episode. Also some west based blocking (great for our purposes but not a canonical NAO) or Hudson Bay blocks were hidden in the numerical index if the east NAO domain had a trough or there was a ridge near the Azores.

It was actually a trifecta of busts over a month that got me about as bent out of shape as I’ve ever been over snow. I was living in South Jersey at the time. We had several straight really god awful snowless winter with nothing more than minor events and numerous bad busts (like feb 89) in the mix. I don’t know what happened/went wrong and I was too young to follow models yet but I remember each vividly. The first was a west to east system that was forecasted to be 4-8” then some sleet. It snowed for 20 mins before going to sleet then freezing rain. Got about an inch of sleet and ice. The second was a hybrid miller A/B that was supposed to be 6-10” then the day of they lowered it to 4-8 then 3-6. Should have known then. That evening we got about 1” of snow. Woke up the next morning to bare ground and driving rain that lasted all day. Ended up really warm too. Like 50 at least. They really blew that one. I think it didn’t transfer soon enough and ended up more a cutter than expected Last one was another west to east storm predicted to be 4-8” and we got about an hour of heavy snow that went to rain. Snow ended up NW of predicted. The last one was towards the end of winter and I was wrecked emotionally. ETA: I do think there was one good snow in 90 or 91 maybe and I missed it because we went on a family vacation to Maui for a week. Lol

Euro phases and has a huge cutter. Take the average. Lol

Feb 24 1989 I think. Not sure why it busted. But it didn’t bust by that much it simply had a sharp back edge. Atlantic City had 19”. Cape May 24”. But where I was 35 miles NW of there nothing. Philly was always on the back edge because I remember the night before the forecast was 1-3 NW of the city. 4-8 in Philly. 8-14 SE and 12-18 at the shore. The back edge ended up with a tighter gradient and maybe 20-30 miles east of expected.

There was a Kara block but that storm wasn’t a function of a bootleg pattern. It was classic. It also had a perfect west based -NAO, ridging near Hudson Bay, monster 50/50, central pac trough with SW ridge alignment. It looked like a mirror image of the HECS h5 composite. No wonder guidance saw it coming a mile away. This was the look for the whole core of that winter. In the end we probably ended up with about what we could expect but it all came in one massive dump. We easily could/should have had multiple snows from a 5 week pattern like this mid winter. We wasted a perfect track coastal on cold rain before the big storm because of the torched air mess left begins by the epic fail December. Then a storm before the blizzard and one after got suppressed. Another perfect track storm in early Feb was a few degrees too warm. I managed 8” of really wet snow up here while 95 was a non accumulating mix at 36 degrees. Finally a 6-10” storm missed us just to the south before the blocking relaxed some. Can’t complain since we got an epic HECS but we should have had more hits from a 5 week epic pattern like that. Not saying more HECS storms but more than one decent snow. It honestly was about as good a pattern as late Jan early Feb 2010 but with a crappier N American airmass heading into it. That really screwed us from a similar outcome.

What Bob said...also the baroclinic zone is wrecked by the wave out in front.

Some thoughts on the MJO and 2 possible escape hatch options to get out of this mess I have always seen the MJO as more of a predictor of warm than cold. It correlates much higher to warmth when it is in warm phases than cold in the cold ones. IT does a better job forecasting huge eastern ridges...sometimes we go through cold phases without much impact though. Don't get me wrong we are better in cold than warm...but frankly I just want to see it keep its hands out of the maritime continent warm phases. We can do just fine when other factors are in our favor with a weak inconsequential mjo wave. On the other hand when other things are bad and we are patiently waiting on the mjo to save us usually it just races through the warm phases without doing us much good. With that said...there have been significant changes to the mjo sst areas and not for the better. THis is why seasonal forecasts are maddening. This was the SST in November and why I was optimistic. The numbers correspond to the area of convection for each phase and the red is the warm phases and the purple circles are the cold. You can clearly see the sst was aligned perfectly to suppress convection in the warm phases and foster convection in the cold phases. The cold pool in phases 3/4 was perfect to kill the waves heading into warm and the warmth in 7 was good to spark waves heading into 8/1. And for November into December we got that effect and we generally had an ok pattern. Some wanted the IOD effect to come off so the standing wave in 2 would cut off allowing the wave to progress into 8/1 near the dateline which is technically better for our snow chances, especially early in the season. But what happened instead was not good. look what has happened around the maritime continent... this is the current look and supports the forecast by guidance of the mjo into a strong warm phase signal. That is also why I am hesitant to toss the guidance that shows a strong standing wave stuck in warm phases for a very long time. There is enough warm water still in the cold phases that its not hopeless but the trend is not good...warming where we don't want it, and cooling where we want warming. So long as we see the MJO strongly in phases 5/6 don't buy anything that shows improvement. But assuming at some point the mjo relaxes or moves out of the eastern torch phases there are 2 ways to adjust this pattern in a realistic way and get to a better place. Assuming the guidance isn't completely out to lunch and we do get a strong pac ridge...there are 2 realistic errors (not needing so much error to be crazy to expect) to the ridge alignment for January which would predict a better outcome going into Feb. Neither gets us to good right away, we would probably still suffer until Feb...but these adjustments to the Jan mean look would predict a better outcome come Feb. This is why the current look is so bad. Probably the worst look there is for snow here. That ridge location is just right to prevent the TPV from retrograding west off the pole, but also perfect to dig the trough in the west and pump the eastern ridge...and with the TPV up there that ridge cant build up into the high latitudes. It sets up a mess in every way. Option 1 or "error option 1" would be if that ridge ends up slightly west of where its forecasted. That look would portend a more likely better outcome in Feb. It would allow the TPV to slide west into AK...while not idea that would allow the eastern ridge to build up into the NAO domain which would eventually favor the wester trough to cut under. It would take a while but it gets us to a better look in Feb. These are some examples of snows from that progression and the end result. Option 2 is if that ridge builds slightly east or northeast of where its progged. THat would look like this... That could allow the Scandinavian ridge to pressure over the top and drop the TPV into Quebec which can lead to a better look...these are some snows from that look Both also require an improvement in the NAM state. But there is some symbiosis going on there because the central pac ridge also correlates strongly with a positive NAM state. But either of those adjustments to the mean ridge position for January would eliminate those god awful analogs I posted last night and bring in some better outcome possibilities for February.

I am hopeful but I am also weary of some of the longer term guidance (EPS Weeklies) that basically create a standing wave in phase 5/6 for a LONG time. The current SST might support that idea. About to make a post on that.

yup agree 100%...hence the "grasping at straws" part. And if I was in your boat I probably would be rooting like crazy just for that 1" scenario. Hell...if all else fails I will still be rooting for the 1" over nothing. But up here I have seen about four 1-2" snows so far...but nothing of consequence more than that so I guess I am looking for a bit more "meat on the bone" so to speak here. But I think we are seeing the same thing wrt to the potential.

we need a bit more amplification in the PNA ridge to help the trough dig a bit more in the east if we want to pull of anything of consequence. Like you said we could root for a weak sheared out wave to drop another 1" type deal with the current depiction. The way to turn this into something with a bit more upside (and it wouldnt take an unrealistic adjustment at this range) would be a bit more amplified PNA ridge to help that trough dig south a bit more...then we "could" get a slightly more amped wave without it tracking north of us. I am just grasping at straws here I know...but its all we got.

As CAPE said this is a great look for the west. Cold and snowy. Could be too cold for the northern ski resorts but places like Colorado when it’s sunny isn’t that cold. I skied Stramboat when it was -25 with the sun out and it actually felt ok. During a storm with wind at -25 though...forget it. But Alta in Utah is already up near 200” on the year with 20-30” expected in the next 72 hours. Yes they get a lot of snow but that’s still a great start with their snowiest months yet to come. I know Revelstoke was doing pretty good also last time I checked. I’m heading out there either the last weekend in January or the first 2 weekends of Feb and I’m salivating already. With this pattern they should be found great with all backcountry chutes and bowls open. ETA: you have to get pretty far north in the east for that to be a good look. Depending on how much the boundary can press and where the TpV near Greenland is it CAN be a good pattern for the mountains in northern New England. Northern NY Vermont and Maine. But if the TPV isn’t far enough south this can be a rain pattern even up there. I was up around Quebec City in the winter of 2008 (comp year to this coming pattern) and it rained all the way to where I was near Le Massif at 3000 feet elevation 40 miles north of Quebec City in mid winter. That’s about as rare a feat for them as a warning snow is for us.

It’s a long shot but get that Scandinavia ridge a little west (needs to retrograde to where it’s poking into Iceland) and working in conjunction with a monster 50/50 and it can work. There was one snowstorm in the dataset of central pac ridge snows that looked like that. Most had a west based NAO block though. But that kind of Scand ridge can be a precursor to NAO blocking. As you said it’s all we got. It’s really our only way out of this mess.