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psuhoffman

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Everything posted by psuhoffman

  1. psuhoffman
    The first flex of the NAO failed. That’s over and done. We had a great -NAO but there was no cold in the pattern. We wasted it. So all those calls were wrong. Now we’re tracking the next round of blocking. There looks to be more cold this time. Or would you prefer we just pack it in and go home because the last one failed?
  2. psuhoffman
    I still think the waves the 24-30 have potential. But it’s also true we do better as blocking relaxes and we may be anxious and so jumping the gun. We might need to wait for the flow to relax.
  3. psuhoffman
    Cmc ensemble doesn’t agree with suppressed either. Actually more rain then suppressed members.
  4. psuhoffman
    It never does but the op is blowing it way Ensemble verification is better at that range. But I want to see this show up in op runs soon
  5. psuhoffman
  6. psuhoffman
    Gefs does not agree with the op fwiw
  7. psuhoffman
    372...we flip to rain by 384
  8. psuhoffman
    That block is blocking lol but IMO the bigger issue is the orientation of the trough/ridge to our west. The western trough cuts off and sits in a bad spot on the op gfs. Too far west for anything to amplify through the ridge not far enough west to let something dig into the east. That western trough needs to either shift east and link up with the eastern trough or more likely pull back enough to let the ridge pull west and something can amplify in the east.
  9. psuhoffman
    Phasing wasn't even close on gfs It wasn’t close but it wasn’t so far off that it’s impossible. It got the NS SW out ahead of the southern feature. No dice. It needed to dig a little more and get in behind. Timing was off.
  10. psuhoffman
    That’s sad. Someone in this sub did something really really really wrong and you need to make amends. Now
  11. psuhoffman
    There are 3 southern waves there...we need one to phase with the NS
  12. psuhoffman
    @stormtracker I’m looking at the ensemble members in the eps and gefs that had hits from that wave on the 25th. They phase that NS wave that the op run just ran out ahead. That has to be behind the southern feature and phase. Otherwise the southern feature won’t survive the shred factory flow. If that doesn’t happen we need to wait as the trough/ridge retrograde until it pulls back enough to let the eastern trough axis pull back some.
  13. psuhoffman
    Here comes another Deep South snow ok this is comical
  14. psuhoffman
    The NS SW came across on top of it instead of phasing and the southern SW got left behind. Eta: that never works. We need the southern energy in front and the NS diving in behind.
  15. psuhoffman
    Not much of the wave left. It’s light rain because the southern feature sheared out.
  16. psuhoffman
    We might need to wait for that western trough to retrograde a bit more to allow that ridge to shift west so something can dig more into the eastern US.
  17. psuhoffman
    It’s not going to do it this run but this would be a candidate
  18. psuhoffman
    @stormtracker what we really need would be one of those NS SWs diving down out of western Canada to dig a bit more and phase.
  19. psuhoffman
    Yea it’s a good setup for a snow in the Deep South. Way way way too much suppression for here. We need the boundary to be relaxing not pressing as a wave approaches.
  20. psuhoffman
    First wave going to be a Deep South snow it looks like lol
  21. psuhoffman
    That’s still not even a fair comp since I average close to 40” and DC about 14”. A better comp for me would be 2 25” storms a year. In which case hell yes so long as I didn’t know they were coming. That would ruin most of the fun.
  22. psuhoffman
    This is funny coming from the guy who could get 10 10” storms a year end still complain.
  23. psuhoffman
    I'm not drunk enough for this
  24. psuhoffman
    at least he is letting it out in a "dead" thread...
  25. psuhoffman
    All the long range guidance has consistently tried to break down the -NAM state around day 20 all cold season since if flipped late November. Sometimes it makes it as close as about day 15 then suddenly gets pushed back out to day 20-25 again. It will eventually flip but I see no signs its eminent yet.
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