psuhoffman

I never disagreed with THAT. I’ve been saying we have to be patient and wait for true blocking to establish and the temporary trough that crashes the west to pull back. My retort was to your post implying we need a total reshuffle and some huge EPO ridge and a breakdown of blocking to get cross polar flow. I think we just need to let the pattern progression we are on play out.

This is a composite of some blocking periods that centered the greatest + snow anomalies in our area. this is a composite of 3 years where the blocking didn’t do us much good but crushed New England. It’s subtle but look at the west and east. There are lower heights in the west on the NE comp and the trough in the east is centered slightly further northeast as a result. Note we don’t need some big PNA ridge with a block but we don’t want a full trough in the west either. Off the NW coast is ok but not crashing full in. One exception is March. Once wavelengths shorten in March that works. Some of our big blocking March storms had a trough in the west. I know this looks subtle but on a planetary scale us and NE aren’t that far apart so looking at a hemispheric map the differences seem subtle.

Lol they aren’t used to having to read the tea leaves of day 15 ensembles to look for their snow. Also a big block isn’t the holy grail to them that it is to us. They can do good but they can also get screwed. They also have way more ways to snow then us. And a lot of them up there are into snow pack building and frankly a blocking pattern isn’t the best for that. They aren’t typically cold, can warm up between storms, and if a storm gets trapped and hugs the coast they are susceptible to rain more in a blocking pattern. An east based -EPO with a displaced TPV is probably what they want most. 1994 and 2015 are their holy grail patterns.

SNE can do ok but they can sometimes be vulnerable to the storm being suppressed south depending on details wrt 50/50, exact block location, PNA ridge amplitude and location...the first 4 big storms in 2009/10 all went south of them. Then as a real kick in the sack the 5th HECS storm (the one that hit NYC and fringed our northeast area) cut due north and went to rain for them. They had a similar fate in 1987. They actually do better if there is more trough into the west coast as that’s more a miller b pattern. That’s what happened with the Feb storm in 2013. That block screwed us over. Missed that bomb then the March 2013 storm...I won’t go there. I’m pretty sure their big winter of 69 was the same, great block but with a western trough so that there were a lot of storms that started far enough north to really bomb off New England. That’s why we only had a decent but not great year in 69 despite amazing blocking. But some of our big storms from a west -NAO got southern NE too. I certainly wouldn’t want to be too far north in NE though. It all depends on the details once they set up wrt who exactly it favors. Fwiw the look I see on long range guidance now favors the mid Atlantic.

Yes...it won’t play out exactly like any op at that range but hypothetically that wave in the west at the end of the run has big dog potential. There is a huge vortex stuck to our northeast under the block. It’s got no where to go but track east under the block and there is cold in front of it this time.

I always check Ji’s posts before setting my emotional compass

My guess is around the 18-20th is when we start to rock. It’s possible one of those waves in the Jan 10-15 works but a long shot as the antecedent airmass is a train wreck. But the thermal profile over the conus will slowly cool in mid January with a flow out of northern Canada. Maybe we get lucky with something amplifying and doing the mythical “create your own cold” thing sooner but I think we have to be patient.

If my memory serves maybe the 11th or so there was a weird flip where the EPS tried to break down the blocking and had us all questioning our faith. The GEFS I think actually stuck with it but back then choosing the GEFS over the EPS was questionable usually. But it was only one or two runs before the better look came back. Ji was depressed in that post because we had been tracking what turned out to be a cold rain (we had some slush bombs mixed in up here) coastal because a primary ran up west and wrecked the temps. When the blocking first showed up a lot of us thought that was the threat. Ended up being a week later.

Often a season with an extremely weak TPV that features a mid season SSW the following winter features blocking also. This becomes even more likely if we see subsequent warning events after the main one.

Very Mongolian

We’ve played this game before...

Sometimes 2 things can be true.

I think the blocking will set up by day 10. But remember we have often had to suffer through a rainstorm after the blocking establishment before a snow threat. We had a big rainstorm around March 1 in 2018 after the block formed before the trough got into the east. Same in January 2016. The first wave to come isn’t usually the one because there is no cold in front of it. It’s usually later that we get a threat. Also once the block goes up don’t get shocked if waves suddenly slow down and we have to wait longer between threats. That’s all normal. Our greatest correlation to snow is a week or more after blocking establishes.

So sorry. Just sucks.

Oh I know she does.

@PivotPoint you’re arguing apples and oranges then. For about a week starting now the pac trough crashes into the west. That’s a problem. That has to back off. But that has not been the case all winter so far and it looks to only last about a week. No one has said we want that trough on the west coast. But getting it to back off slightly to be centered back where it has been most of winter so far isn’t a big change or reshuffle it’s just the pac resuming its base state so far this cold season. We have not had a legit NAO block yet. We did have a AO crash and it did produce cold and legit snow threats. If we get a legit NAO block with the pac base state we have had most of December we will be fine.

Looking into a lot of what’s being discussed right now...regardless of the outcome this year...a very strong SSW that couples could be good for blocking prospects next winter as well, especially if there are subsequent events

@PivotPoint composite of our 15 snowiest winters day 15 GEFS (all guidance agrees on this general look) I highly doubt any reshuffle is going to result in a better pattern then that! What you’re proposing is like hitting on 20 in Blackjack

We have never done well in a Nina without blocking. Ever. So your assertion that we should toss the blocking doesn’t have any historical support. NAO phases often last months so your idea that it could break down then reform in time to save the end of winter is dubious. We do not want a ridge where that N PAC low has been. We want a ridge centered over eastern AK into western Canada. That N pac low has been, and guidance suggests will be again, centered west of AK. Most of our best snowstorms have a low there. If you put a ridge there you will get a trough in the west and a ridge in the east! If you are only talking about the one week coming up where that low becomes a monster and crashes into western N Amer then yes that needs to back off. That does temporarily flood us with pac puke next week. But that’s only temporary not the permanent base state. It’s a result of a sub 920 low crashing into the Bering sea. Assuming that pulls back to where the N PAC low base state has been it’s fine Imo.

First of all the pac has not been that awful. But we are recovering from this in Nov which left N Amer scorched. But the means this month are fine. the N Pac trough mean axis is far enough west not to be a major problem. And despite starting from a warm base state it got cold enough to snow in Richmond and the northern 1/3 of our forum and just to our west Xmas eve. Right now our bigger problem is we’re still recovering from a late start and the WAR. There is actually a decent ridge on the pac side right now but the last 2 and next system cut because of the WAR! The pac isn’t the problem. Now it’s about to be. A near record low is crashing into the Bering Sea and for a while the whole trough amplifies end shifts east. This here is no good and kills us for about 7-10 Days so yea we need that to improve but that’s not been the pac base state and guidance says it’s only temporary and pulls back again that there is fine! It won’t be arctic...but you keep the flow into the east out of northern Canada and it will be cold enough. It was cold enough for Richmond and Nashville and everyone just NW of 95 2 weeks ago! lastly what you want isn’t realistic. We’re in a Nina. You want to remove the N pac low and NAO and think we would pop some full lat EPO PNA ridge? No. We would go back to that November look! The NAO and Aleutian low are all that’s keeping that pattern at bay and you want to toss them?

My 2 year old has Jedi hide and seek skills. The 6 year old goes to hide and she just sits down and starts to play with her frozen castle. After a couple mins the 6 year old starts calling “are you coming”. She replies “yea I’m coming” but just keeps playing. Eventually he gets frustrated and walks out and she immediately points at him and says “I found you”.

I said I do expect the blocking to work out. But if we start to see what was our best snow looks stop producing even threats that is a big uh oh. That’s not a revelation. Pulling for ya I coach a policy debate team. Dunno about “training”. We won a State championship a few years ago. I am proud of that.

I thought I was being optimistic...for me anyways. I am bullish overall.

@CAPE @osfan24 I don’t think we’re kicking all of Jan. The SSW has actually already commenced. The wind reversal looks to happen around the 4th (I but the euro here, its adamant about it and it’s been far superior with the strat over the years) and the progression we’re seeing on ensembles matches analogs. Weeks 1-2 after a SSW look ehh but the cold anomalies really kick in week 3 and go ape week 4-5. That lines up with the look on ensembles mid month and gets us into good shape by the last week of January. On a side note Cohen and some others have said this most closely resembles the 2018 SSW. That happened mid February and the flip for us happened after that storm the first couple days of March. From then on it was a favorable pattern into April. If this SSW happens the first week of January that same timeline puts the favorable windows from about Jan 20-March 1. I don’t mind that. Give me that same 2018 pattern but centered on prime climo v March/April and let’s roll!

Don’t worry by the time it gets here we will be worried about the thaw showing on the long range.