psuhoffman

We’re going to have to make this work with domestic cold for a while. We’ve done it before in blocking. But it does add a level of difficulty. ETA: the gfs has been REALLY struggling lately with not just synoptic but major longwave features. It’s had some runs of quality in the past but lately it’s been lost. Until I see signs it’s got it’s act together and can handle this pattern I’m giving it even less weight then normal. GFS has a lot less stratosphere resolution then the euro. I don’t know about the CMC. But the gfs was way off on the strat warm, delaying it by a week. I wonder if given what’s going on now that component is really hurting it.

@CAPE cmc illustrated what I mean by needing a clean transfer and tightly would (synced up closed mid level circulation). It has a perfect upper level and surface track to get at least some snow into the cities but it doesn’t really phase up well or quickly in the mid levels. It’s too diffuse. Add just a bit of amplitude though and that might work.

Icon has a totally different evolution then Euro. More GFS like. System for the 8th is all northern stream and runs to our north but then it has a wave right on its heels.

@frd the gefs did finally fold to the euro on the timing of the wind reversal. To be fair the Euro was originally a couple days too fast but the GFS was over a week too slow.

It looks like one of the more impressive events we’ve tracked and given the already pathetic state of the TPV it wouldn’t take much coupling at all to knock it out for the count this winter.

I doubt it can gain much (if any) latitude once to the east coast and with that h5 pass it’s possible. But the coastal plain needs 2 things to go well. 1. Get the storm to transfer to the coast quick and clean. 2. I say clean because once it does you need it to be a tightly wound system synced up at all levels (unlike the mid dec storm). Need the surface mid and upper levels to come together. No broad diffuse system that takes a while to redevelop off the coast. But if you get those 2 things with the current h5 look I could see a better result for the lowlands. But those are 2 big asks.

Looking better and better

One seasonal trend I’ve noticed is things tending to trend colder overall. I had snowcover for a week that looked like a torch from long range. That storm was a lakes cutter from 10 days out. Right now I was supposed to be torching and I had a snow sleet mix all day yesterday and awaiting freezing rain now. So far this is not a year where warmer automatically wins on guidance. We are lacking any true arctic air but at least we have that going for us.

Sometimes flukes happen but with a marginal airmass and that 8th system originating pretty far north to our west, I agree that would be a tough ask for the eastern shore.

6z EPS was considerably colder at the end of its run.

@CAPE will be happy to know the GEFS has a cluster of suppressed Richmond snowstorm solutions.

The pac trough has crashed in a couple times only to quickly pull back, despite at times guidance indicating it would be a more extended problem. That’s one reason I was never too concerned about the pac ruining things in the longer term.

Bootleg

@Ji new year. Read the shirt!

I told you in December last year winter was likely going to be an epic fail. I said I would keep tracking like I always do just in case we got lucky and I was wrong but when I got that fluke little wave in early January I told myself it might be the only snow I saw all year and I made sure to enjoy it. And it was! But I was content. I resigned myself to it early. This year my snowblower is gassed and tuned up (already used it once) and if we don’t get at least one more really good storm I will be very disappointed. My bar isn’t as high as yours but I do think we snow a decent amount this winter.

Fear is the path to the dark side

I think the suppressed storms are more likely in the Jan 15-20 period. Still not in range. Let’s hope we have snow OTG by then and we can relax and enjoy the ride.

Normally with the gfs I agree. But for some reason the GFS has been cutting storms into the block in the long range while other guidance is more suppressed.

I noticed that in his post too! The -5 AO though...how long we been waiting to see that?

For once he is late to the hype party. And not totally wrong. The danger in those analogs is there were other examples of that pattern that didn’t max out to that degree. It’s always dangerous to use the most extreme example of a pattern to set the bar.

Ugh I’m sorry. Any chance you can take a road trip home sometime as we get out back to back to back HECS?

@MillvilleWx how’s your snow looking???

I didn’t mean it that way. We have the look I’m describing day 10-20 on guidance. After that it retrogrades the pac pattern a bit. I’m saying I prefer the look day 10-20 over 20-30...and it’s still good just not AS good. And it might be wrong as long range has been going that way falsely for a month now.

@CAPE I’m starting to think that central pac Nina look the Uber long range guidance wants to go to around week 4-5 is just a model figment anyways. It’s been doing that since November weeks 4-5 and Keeps pushing it back. It’s forever stuck at 4 weeks away. Imo it’s the same phenomenon as in 2019 when the NWP continuously wanted to morph the pattern to a canonical modoki nino look as it was losing the forcing signal for whatever was running interference and was relying too heavily on enso at range. It’s been doing it this year (only the opposite way) and I am getting confident it’s not real. And even if it is we get 2 weeks of damn good before that. The good news is no guidance even hints at the NAM state flipping positive.