psuhoffman

The guidance mishandling of the play between the tpv and North Atlantic vortex really mucked things up. That phasing and consolidating into Baffin vs splitting and sliding out forces the canadien ridge too far south and flipped the pattern on a dime. It was one thing...but a BIG thing. Maybe one big thing will break in our favor one of these times.

Southside steakhouse at trolley square in Rutland is an excellent eat btw. Good luck. Have fun.

Been to Rangely when skiing the loaf. They always have a ton of snow. They don’t quite get the huge totals from coastals though as on the southeast faces of the mountain range. But they hold snowcover due to the cold being protected from coastal warm ups. Having been to rangely and n Conway on the same trips often (combining wildcat and loaf) Rangely will always have more snow otg but in a big storm Conway gets the bigger dump. Trade offs. Conway still has snowcover much of winter so I think I would sacrifice the crazy pack Rangely has from November to May...literally they usually still have a 2 foot pack in late April even...to get those crazy coastals. I still want to be able to root for those and watch the crazy death bands on radar.

E was March 58 other than the bust that one was maybe cheating since it wasn’t HUGE at DCA but it was most of the area and it’s a personal fave.

This is Boxing Day... it fits the cohort. But I only included one mega bust in the set and I think Boxing Day actually gave him some snow in Delaware...like 3-6” so I didn’t use that one. I could fill the set with busts and hits and you wouldn’t be able to tell the difference and that was my point. Pattern is only half the battle. Luck with micro scale features has to go our way too.

Good guess but no. B was a HECS. Jan 96. I’ll disclose soon if no one else wants to take a stab at it.

You have the most reason of anyone in here to be a cranky miserable arse wrt snow yet you are one of the most level headed posters. It’s easy for me too have a positive attitude given my climo/results but I admire your rationality. I do hope your location breaks the drought soon and or you find a snowier spot. Even up here I dream of moving somewhere like North Conway NH where 100” is a common occurrence.

It shifted quite a bit colder. But it seems to do that partially in response to bombing the day 10 storm then squashing everything behind it. Cold/dry day 11-16. But still a better look rolling forward than 12z was imo.

Good luck to her! I’m going to Gettysburg with my wife tomorrow for the day/night. I won’t be on here for a while. Mersky can handle things while I’m gone.

23/7

In fairness the gefs was better day 10-15 but dry. But closer to workable. It was a better trend fwiw.

Now that’s bad.

So no guesses on the storms?

Wrt the mjo and pattern...that doesn’t mean things can’t flip...but that when we do see major pattern flips it’s not purely because of the Mjo. An example is 2017/18. We had a cold phase rotation earlier that didn’t do us much good but when it rotated into cold phases again later as the permanent NAM state was flipping it had the canonical response. But that pattern then went on to persist even as the mjo wave faded and went into warmer phases. We need an actual atmospheric base state change along with the mjo. An mjo wave temporarily traversing cold phases during an unfavorable global base state pattern won’t do much good imo. Those kinds of pattern flips can happen. But the most likely time is late. The Nina like pac response favors such. Think 1999, 2009, 2017, 2018. Not all do but many years with similar pac issues feature a legit pattern change for March. and before the “that’s too late” posts yes yes I know. I’m not saying I want that. Just saying that’s what might happen.

I’ve had a thought on the MJO for a while that I’ve mentioned a few times as to why we often don’t get the response we need when it goes into “cold phases”. The whole “MJO phase 8 is great...except when it goes into 8” thing. Basically I’ve theorized that the main reason the mjo phase 8/1/2 are correlated with the H5 look we want and cold is that those mjo phases are also correlated too and amplified by the types of global patterns that produce those results. So basically a winter here with a cold base state is likely to spend more time in cold mjo phases skewing those phases that way. But when we have a warm base state winter and we wait for an mjo wave to save us it rarely does. Even when it makes it into cold phases the response is muted. It often makes things “better but not good Enough”. I suspect a cold phase mjo is not as correlated to the response we want when it happens in warm base state winters. That is probably because it’s acting alone and not associated with the typical global pattern (canonical el nino) that it is during cold winters. Instead it’s being muted by the background warm base state. On the other hand I think the same is true in cold winters. Over the years when the mjo is about to crush our dreams and JB is spinning to save his subscriptions for another month he likes to throw out examples of warm phase rotations that were cold/snowy. But they are always years like 1978 where we were in a canonical nino pattern and the base state was cold. For the same reason in a year like that the warm mjo wave is muted by the background state. When we are in a warm year and the mjo spikes into warm phases we always torch. This has just been a theory and I never bothered to research and support it. I bring this up because isotherm seems to offer scientific support for this. Isotherm From the NYC sub “Chris, and I've been ruminating on some hypotheses re: the time-lag and distorted response. One issue, in my view, is base-state resonance. Sometimes the MJO/intraseasonal signal is misaligned with the base state, and as such, when it propagates through typically conducive phases, the N HEM response may not be bonafide/favorable due to the misalignment with the background indicators. For example, 2002-03 had a much more classic AAM/GWO and hadley/walker cell structures concordant with a canonical El Nino, and thus when MJOcirculated to 8, we had a more genuine N HEM response.”

I’m just getting caught up on the thread but I think this is saying in a much more scientific way what I just said more observationally.

The mjo in phase 8/1/2 is great...except when it actually goes in any of those phases...then it sucks. I have a thought...not even a theory yet since all I’ve done is kick it around in my head, but it seems to me over the years that when the tropical base state is good...then strong mjo waves in cold phases correlate well. But when we are in years where the base state is crap and we wait for the anomaly of a wave into favorable phases to come it typically doesn’t do much good and the response is muted. I am not saying the mjo is not a causation but that the reason for the strong pattern correlations might be partially due to the fact that cold years that have a pattern correlated to cold mjo phases tend to spend much more time in those cold phases. So it skews the mean. I wonder if cold phases in otherwise unfavorable winters have the same correlation. When we have had flips associated with the mjo it usually happens when a longer term overall change in the atmospheric base state is occurring, like March 2018 when a long term blocking period set in. I just don’t remember lots of instances when things were a hot mess for a long time and the mjo wave into 8 suddenly saved us. Usually it makes it “better” but not good enough. Like I said this is just a thought for now and I could be injecting perception bias here. I would have to study the data to see if there is anything too this.

Nothing you said was inappropriate

Why are you stuck on the mjo projections. This started over you comparing my analysis of the EPS to Will’s and implying they have not gotten worse for our snow chances. Neither myself or CAPE said the EPS was right. Your off on a worthless tangent because your original point was BS.

The first rule of fight club... @stormtracker can we get some old school mortal combat fatalities codes up in here?

Sorry let me clarify. The statistics for the pattern in January show we have a roughly 90% chance to end the year below normal snowfall based on past outcomes. That doesn’t mean it can’t snow at all. And hey maybe this is the 10% but right now that seems unlikely. Now below normal doesn’t mean no snow. But losing a huge chunk of prime climo to a crap pattern makes it hard to end well but we did have years like 2007 where a similar January went on to a snowier February. But the statistics were only about 50/50 about it getting any better the rest of winter. In some cases the pattern did shift but to another crappy one. I noted then that some of the crap years had a late snow in March and that might be our best chance. Wrt right now...the look day 15 can go either way. My lost earlier outlined that. But with the AK vortex there with a +NAO it will be hard to overcome. I was talking about day 10-15. I have no clue after. If the vortex shifts and an epo ridge pops like the guidance suggests then it’s a temporary problem. If it sets up shop there longer were in trouble. But I’m not going to speculate much past day 15. My guess is it’s temporary. But that still doesn’t mean we get a great pattern.

Again with the false equivalency. No one even said the EPS was right. I said it degraded the pattern for snow chances the last few runs. It did. I don’t know if it’s right. It’s 10-15 days away. That range is like reading tarot cards. But you’re using a bait and switch tactic to deflect from the fact your last claim was assanine.

Ok less extremes. Even if everything fails within the next 2 weeks we still have February and early March to score a better look and or a fluke snow. The odds of this being a good snowfall year are decreasing rapidly but that doesn’t necessarily mean we won’t get anymore snow at all. Try the middle. It’s a nice place.

I’m going to try really hard to say this respectfully but you really stretch the limits of patience. Will is in New England. He is analyzing the eps from their perspective. How did the pattern in 2001 work out around here last time? And that was with way more blocking than is likely given the current NAM state. The EPS is worse for our snow chances than it was 48 hours ago. For one there are less members with snow here. While that can be a fluke in this case it’s in coordination with unfavorable changes in the longwave pattern. You’ve made posts like this several times here and in other regions peddling false equivalencies. And I am not the first person to point it out or take issue with it. Just a word of advice...the people here aren’t as stupid as you seem to think they are.

They do. They broke the pattern down erroneously several times in years with a cold base stare. PD2 was rain in the long range and not even close because I was up at PSU and it was all rain even there on the day 10 MRF. 2014 several times guidance showed a false warm up. But there are less opportunities for that because the base state is warm most years.