psuhoffman

The real issue with this...is we need the upper low and associated surface system in the TN and OH valleys to be stronger. This is not an amplifying up the coast coastal setup. These can be nice storms...but the mechanism is a strong upper low and surface system to our west into the Ohio valley pressing WAA against the compressed confluent flow over the northeast. That ends up creating a really strong inverted trough to focus moisture transport and lift along as the secondary forms off the coast. But that secondary will not gain much latitude. If the system in the midwest is weak and not amplified enough to create that strong inverted trough feature this is a non event. The coastal itself will not affect us. This is 100% about the strength of the upper level wave that ejects out west. Stronger and further north...we have a storm. The trend the last 24 hours was suddenly weaker on average across all guidance after it had been a very healthy wave...even on the GEFS in prior days. All I want to see today is trend back towards an amplified closed upper level low coming across.

weren't you complaining there was no high like that for the last storm...and now this one that is the reason it wont hit. Guess you are consistent with your character at least.

Euro looking kinda weak this run.

Dynamically driven...its actually raining on the northern fringe of precip on WV while its snowing in SC on the gfs run...but with incredibly heavy precip and crashing heights under the mid and upper level lows it creates just enough cold to get snow.

the op probably just drank Jobu's rum

cutter suppressed cutter... it knows our climo

The good news WRT the TPV lobe is at the rate its slowing down EVERY run lately...its probably going to end up to the west of the next wave also and not be an issue.

it was better then last run lol. But really want to go crazy...the TPV lobe that was supposed to slide across in front of the monday wave and help suppress the flow over top of that wave...and keep it from cutting...slowed down sooo much that not only did it allow that Monday wave to get out in front of it and drive north but its still around and compressing the flow over the top of the storm later in the week. LOL

Ok let me clarify what I meant above before I start a panic....this run of the GFS does not bother me because its the GFS and its all over the place at this range. But...the way it suppressed the storm on THIS run was a more realistic scenario. What I saw on the last few runs didn't bother me at all because it was suppressing the storm for the wrong reasons. So...as long as none of the other guidance trends to a weak pathetic flat wave ejecting out west tonight...we are fine. But if we start to see across guidance a trend weaker with the upper level low coming across that is BAD because that is what is driving this storm. There has to be an amplifying upper level low to our west to pump ridging for this scenario to work. The trough axis is off the east coast and the flow is NW to SE...this isnt a type of setup where a surface low is going to amplify up the coast along the baroclinic boundary. This only works if we have a strong upper level center to our west pumping heights into the confluence to our NE creating a strong inverted trough for a low to amplify along. That won't work if the upper low is weak.

If we're going to fail might as well do it in the most epic way possible!!!

too weak... the wave was simply too weak and couldn't amplify at all. Dampened as it came east. We need a healthier wave to eject from that western trough then that. Just the GFS but that run troubled me slightly more then the last few misses to the south because that was at least consistent with itself. If the wave that ejects out west is that weak...it will go south. The other runs were just doing stupid GFS stuff but the storm should have been further north. This run did was it will do IF that wave is actually that weak.

This isn’t a setup like when we’ve missed South recently. The gfs doesn’t have a weak wave off Florida while the euro targets NC and we’re kidding ourselves about “north trend”. The cmc ensembles are targeting just north of us eps right over us and gefs just south. but forget the clown maps look at the setup... this is the most suppressed gefs. But the pattern doesn’t support that. That’s a healthy upper level disturbance (1) and look at where the 50/50 is. This isn’t a case where there is a vortex over or just north of Maine like most of those suppressed examples lately and we are acting like maybe that will somehow relax. The 50/50 is well NE. If it wasn’t for the block so far SW this would likely be a rain problem with that 50/50 location. Look at the latitude of the upper low and the ridging ahead of it. Even on the gefs that doesn’t look suppressed to me. I would think anyone south of the red line is ok. I wouldn’t want to be north of there and the blue line is the “probably smoking cirrus” line. The 18z euro is even more bullish look at the ridging already in front...and that upper low is coming across at a pretty high latitude. There isn’t enough pna ridge to really dig that into the southeast like the last few. I think the eps/geps has the right idea here. Frankly Imo the gefs itself doesn’t really support that much suppression.

Don’t worry it will adjust north.

@frd just looked. After a relax the weeklies imply another surge of the NAO from Feb 10-15 which sets off a progression that would be very favorable from about Feb 16 through into mid March here. Huge if but that pattern would imply we get another crack at a snowy period later in winter.

That’s actually a pretty good look. Shades of 2014 and 2015. Those years achieved that through a different mechanism on the Atlantic side...a trapped tpv. That setup has pac ridge further west but a -NAO to offset. The result is a similar pattern over the conus. Wouldn’t be as cold but a good storm track in Feb and early March is ok so long as we’re not torching and we shouldn’t be in that look.

That’s a cutter look though. Way too much ridge in front. If we were to see a 50/50 in future looks it could morph into a transfer setup but the first wave as the trough progresses east (after reversal from current retrogression) is likely a cutter. After that we could get waves depending on how suppressed the SE ridge gets. Too far out to guess yet. Feb is murky but not a shutout look Imo.

Live look at DCA

I think you end up south of that brick wall it’s fine but this won’t gain a lot of latitude on the coast imo.

Moving this from the “wrong” thread lol. Like I said last night this setup reminds me of PD1. Now that was a max anomalous outcome so that doesn’t mean we get that exact outcome. But I expect models are underestimating the intensity of lift along the inverted trough as it slams into the confluence from the block. If that setup holds there will be some pretty good banding stretched NW along the trough from the surface low. It will hit a brick wall though somewhere. My guess is Philly ends up ok but it’s close...any further north though...

Like I said last night this setup reminds me of PD1. Now that was a max anomalous outcome so that doesn’t mean we get that exact outcome. But I expect models are underestimating the intensity of lift along the inverted trough as it slams into the confluence from the block. If that setup holds there will be some pretty good banding stretched NW along the trough from the surface low. It will hit a brick wall though somewhere. My guess is Philly ends up ok but it’s close...any further north though...

Chill I’m just teasing you. I’m probably your biggest fan in here so calm yourself.

We did it’s day 7 so it’s in the day 3-7 thread. Just be glad we have so many threats it’s confusing...that’s a new and good problem to have. Back in the day we just started a storm specific thread pretty early but now everyone is like NOOOO it will kill it because some decided it’s our threads and not our crap climo that kills storms. Short of going back to specific threads having short/medium/long range threads seems the best we can do.

Don’t sell yourself short