psuhoffman

The wave on the 28/29 is the one with the best upper support but it’s coming across a bit too far north.

No that run was beautiful. We want that boundary a little south of us at 200 hours. This isn’t a run that has it squashed to southern VA and NC. That would be bad. But we know it won’t be totally accurate at 200 hours. And we know the adjustment is still usually north 60% of the time. So all jokes aside just playing the odds we want it right there at that range. I’m totally fine with it..... But we all know no matter what the 40% screw us option is what will happen every time so why bother...there @Ji took care of it for you.

Yes that’s always been the most likely time period based on pattern progression. As everything retrogrades that’s the point where something is most likely to amplify in the east yet have a boundary far enough south to keep us on the frozen side. Doesn’t mean we don’t get something before or after...the pattern isn’t crap on either side of that but that’s when it all seems right wrt the longwave features to see an amplified wave along the east coast south of us. That’s all I saw. The details have to fill in as we get closer.

Lol I typed that up and then looked as the next panels loaded... details aside the whole euro progression is closer to my “vision” a week ago. Much less ridging and more of a mid latitude handoff between the western and eastern trough under the block v blasting a ridge between the two.

It doesn’t have enough separation between waves to really amp. But the good news is without much separation to allow the cold to press south behind the NS wave we need less amped. If we can get some separation between the multiple waves next week after the lead NS wave clears that would be our chance at a bigger event.

Geps fwiw supports a further south solution for both threats next week like the cmc op.

Gefs not on board with the 2 wave idea. Favors one dominant wave to our north. Then it favors a miller b screw job solution for the next threat.

That’s a kick in the nads after the improvements on the ops

Lol it’s good overall. We knew the euro all alone was not going to be exactly right. This progression gives us a way way better chance then the fully phased idea the gfs was tossing around before. But it’s never easy. This solution is also better for the follow up wave.

A compromise between the euro and gfs camps from a day ago. It’s coming out in pieces but they are spaced tighter then the euro had. Problem is if we don’t get enough separation between the waves it won’t work. It’s close.

I’ve thought about this and I think it would be more helpful if past day 6 only ran once a day but that one run was a super ensemble that incorporated the initializations of all 4 interim runs to account for possible errors with initialization. One more accurate update a day would be more helpful then a bunch of mini ones. And cause us way less mental anguish. A Day 7+ Forecast doesn’t need to be updated more then once a day anyways.

Yea but instead of bringing the NS across ahead it stalls it out west and pumps the ridge anyways on top of the unphased southern wave. Still not the progression we want. But I suppose a baby step towards a better idea.

Well oddly enough the eps isn’t that bad. It does have a camp that trended north. But there is also a camp of good hits still and the snow mean increased slightly from 12z. And the signal for the day 11 threat I’ve liked got better. The pattern dies degrade by day 15 though but it’s not awful. The -NAO holds but we need the western trough to either back off or shift its. It’s kind of in the worst spot and offsetting the NAO by day 15.

I’m not going to over react to one run but the trend the last 24 hours has been discouraging. Let’s see what happens tomorrow.

Guidance is in flux. I wouldn’t go with anything yet. If the ridge can retrograde west we could still get something to cut through and dive into the east. Depends what the NAO ridge does. If it continues south we’re screwed. If it rotates back north we would be ok.

If that ridge links up that way it doesn’t just wreck the one threat. All the cold from the epo ridge will be trapped west. The trough won’t progress east it will just continue to pump the ridge to its east.

Yup. It connects the ridge and that’s ballgame.

At 12z cmc was the only op showing that. But ensembles had it and now the para at 18 and 0z. But if I said “wait it’s the next wave” earlier some would have had a fit so I just kept my mouth shut.

Para fringes me so it must be right

Yea but that was bone dry remember. We needed in between lol. I wouldn’t freak over a day 13 op run. If the ensembles go that way over the next couple days then yea....it’s going to depend on that ridge link up. If the gfs is right about a complete link of the mid and high latitude ridges like that it’s game over. But nothing else shows that and the gefs is skeptical of that progression.

Cmc isn’t that bad Imo. It’s still 9 days away (especially if it’s the trailing wave). Cmc doesn’t have enough separation between waves to work. But it’s close. That wouldn’t take much adjustment. It’s not like the gfs that wants to drive a ridge to the North Pole and nuke the whole pattern!

@Ji what’s sad is that if someone just sneezes while facing north a ridge pops to the Arctic circle these days regardless of the pattern. Any freaking excuse and warmth wants to surge north.

A lot of the good ensembles in the Eps and gefs have that progression. That might be the best way here if that ridge is going to pump like that. A weak wave to knock it down then something behind. We need the trough to eject pieces to prevent the ridge from going ape.

What did you do with Ji?????

Honestly from a pattern progression the cmc was always in the gfs camp. The op pumped the ridge same way but less extreme buy it also washed out that first wave. No one pointed out the snowstorm the cmc showed was actually from the NEXT wave and was a days later lol. And for that progression to work required the first lead wave to wash out and it was the only model showing that lol. But the cmc ensembles were fully in the gfs camp without that wonky split wave idea. I didn’t want to kill the mood by pointing that out though.