psuhoffman

The weekly ensemble members are not run at high resolution. They won’t estimate things like meso banding and that’s 10-1 which if you and I get a flush hit you know ratios would be higher. The gradient to the NW of 95 is NEVER as sharp as reality would be on those because a lot of what causes our enhanced totals are meso features (upslope and higher ratios and banding) a low res ensemble member won’t see. Also a 50 member ensemble will always skew towards the mean by outlier members. It works both ways. I would say the same if the pattern looked awful and it showed a 3-4” mean. Thats actually a shutout look. Just a few outliers skewing towards the mean. What I’m saying is it’s the axis and anomaly that matters more then the total. Snow maps aren’t even close to the best way to analyze the pattern but you can take hints from them if you know how to interpret them.

@CAPE this ones for you...euro weekly control. I get fringed up here! Fwiw (not much) the euro weeklies had their best run wrt snow mean all winter. Clearly above climo for the period, especially along 95. It’s not shocking...the general H5 looks workable right through Feb. -NAO suppressed SE ridge pattern in feb could work. control Mean

Para did come really close to a monster storm around the 25 but bombs just off the coast.

Wait till you see the para gfs. Cutter. Suppressed suppressed suppressed cutter

It’s weird the Rex block is actually gone it’s just a -NAO ridge but it goes berserk with a vortex in the 50/50. It’s actually the flow under a block that creates the effect so that solution is even more suppressive

When he said the west coast, you thought he meant of THIS planet??

@CAPE of course the -AO will end sometime. Maybe it does finally flip in February but by then we had a -AO from late November straight for 11-12 weeks. The failure of the winter wouldn’t be that the AO was positive the last couple weeks imo. Lol

Yes but in November it said that was coming by mid December. Then in mid December it was January. Then late January. Now by mid February? Ok...

I’m sorry this is the AP course. The remedial class is down the hall.

They have tried to kill the -AO/NAO state all cold season just as guidance tried to weaken the +AO in previous winters. Part of that is reversion to mean at range. Part is guidance misidentifying a key driver. 2 years ago it was a nino that never coupled. This year is a Nina that’s being countermanded by other influences. ETA: point is I doubt it just flips. If we fail this winter we can’t blame the high latitudes. That might make a fail even more painful

Well one is getting it inside 300 hours. The genesis of the pattern is only 5/6 days out from there you can extrapolate... But also other factors. One being the pacific flow backing off which won’t destructively interfere as much. Another is more cold injected into the pattern. We did have pretty good (not as good) look up top the last 10 days but with no cold we wasted it. 3rd guidance often is too fast with a pattern progression both setting in and breaking down. Lastly the effects of the SSW are just starting to couple with the troposphere so increased blocking is supported. It could still fail. But those are reasons I have optimism.

@stormtracker you are right to be skeptical. I’m wrong plenty of times. But let me lay out why I think our opportunities increase the further into this pattern we get. And I feel confident not because the guidance shows this because this was the progression I started laying out days ago before it was as apparent as it is on todays EPS. I’m confident because the guidance is going towards what makes sense wrt how the pattern should progress. Let’s start with why that first wave around day 8 is going to have trouble staying snow despite the block. It’s about what happens before it. The genesis is day 4. The pac ridge (1) is going up and retrograding. It don’t look like much yet but the energy in western Canada and AK is digging into the west (2) in response. As that trough digs downstream once that trough in the east moves out there is nothing to stop a ridge from popping (3). The NAO block (4) is not yet in a spot to be helpful. Actually it’s really still just an extension of the WAR there. So let’s go out a few more days... Now the blocking is getting going. But even there is still centered just east of Greenland and it can’t go back in time and erase that ridge already in the east! It’s not that the block isn’t good but it’s too little too late. But keep in mind the location of key features there. Block just east of Greenland and 50/50 just NW of NF. Could that force a secondary south of us...yea but that ridge is a bit much and more problematic look at the airmass in front of that wave coming... Just being honest...all that ridging with a block just getting into ideal position and no cold in front...isn’t likely to end well. Not impossible but I’m not getting my hopes up. But now that the block is up and there is cold getting into N America as the pac flow finally relaxes look at the progression. With each wave more cold will bleed east under the block. So lets try this again a couple days later... At first glance it might seem that’s the same. But the ridge is flatter. And look at the key features. The blocking is now centered just WEST of Greenland. And the 50/50 is over NF. But most importantly look at the temps in front of the next wave... ok...that’s not Arctic but that’s much more workable. And look at the MSLP anomalies. They hint at exactly what I was looking for... And imo the wave AFTER that day 11 threat has an even better chance. Fast forward to 300 hours and we try again but... look how flat the ridge is that time...look at the location of the block and 50/50. And look at the temps in front this time... Now we’re cooking...the mslp is washed out by that range but the mean precip during that period hints at what is going on. so yes this all relies on certain things happening that may not happen. But it fits the pattern progression. I’m showing this because the EPS went to how the pattern should progress imo. If it does the wave around day 11 will have a better chance then day 8 and the wave around day 14 will have an even better chance. sorry for the war and peace post.

Because the positive torque momentum from the axis of the angular sheer vector was several degrees off optimum velocity.

Is this the after meds Ji?

It snows some from a storm that has a primary get to Minnesota with no true cold in front. That’s impressive. But a block isn’t a magic cure all. It can only work with the airmass under it and the upstream flow has an effect. In this case both those other factors are wrong. There is a huge trough out west and no cold in the east so up pops a huge SE ridge. Plus the block is just getting into prime position. This is why I after that wave would be better. Cold should bleed east more once there actually is cold in N America again and the block will grow in influence as it retrogrades.

With a primary in mn...that’s a bit much to overcome but it tries. Hope for a slightly less extreme north track to the primary and secondary might be further south. I still think even better threats come after that wave. But not dismissing it either.

It’s a -AO/NAO. It’s not a bad pattern. But the pac is offsetting it. It still does force that wave further east then we would see without it. It secondaries. But can’t save us. There is no antecedent cold. If there was that pattern would be fine. We can cry about the fact that a pretty darn good pattern isn’t doing a freaking thing for us and I’m with you. It’s crazy. It’s scary. But what I’m saying is obviously a simply -AO isn’t doing it. If we need to step it up the true Rex block that can exert a lot of pressure on the upstream flow doesn’t kick in until day 7/8.

We have a -AO. We have an east based -NAO ridge before that. The Rex block doesn’t form and retrograde to a spot that can offset the pacific until day 7

Always good to declare a block a fail 7 days before it starts.

Hope it’s not too presumptuous of me but bringing this over from the old thread...

There is no cold in the pattern initially. The response to the EPO going up will initially be to dump the trough and cold into the west. Think wave dynamics. See saw. If there is no cold in front of that...what’s the response in the east going to be? I can totally see a ridge popping initially. Could the block fight it off...maybe. But the thing is the block effects things AFTER not before. There is a lag. Loop the n hemisphere h5 progression on the gfs. The block is just getting into a truly favorable location around day 7. By then the damage is done. The trough is dumping west and the ridge is going up because the block wasn’t there a few days earlier to effect the flow yet! If there was more cold in front and the blocking was already established we would see a more broad elongated trough but without..the trough/ridge makes sense. Now..again the blocking could suppress the track enough. I’m not tossing the day 6-10 period. But this was why I said yesterday AFTER that is when I think the progression favors us more. Once the Rex block retrogrades west of Greenland it will start to exert itself on the flow. The cold out west will bleed east under the block. That trough will be forced to spread and broaden. And frankly it’s an odd combo that has huge upside. That block location in a different pac would actually be way too suppressive. That’s a crazy southwest NAO Rex block with big 50/50 vortex signature and a displaced TPV under it. That could just be super cold/dry. But the western trough will try to cut storms west of us. But at some point as more cold bleeds east and the block retrogrades a “oh no you dont” wall will go up and a storm coming from the SW with gulf moisture trying to cut will be blocked and forced under. And those our “fun”. That’s still how I see this potentially playing out. But the balance between cold west/east and block location won’t be perfect for that until closer to the end of January according to the current progression and timing.

I mean this sub is in the midst of their worst 1/4/ and If things don’t change soon 5 year stretch in history!!! We waited literally 10 years for a -AO winter and when we finally get one DC has now totally wasted the first 6 weeks of it! So I don’t blame anyone for the current attitude. The frustration is kinda understandable. I’m just trying to soldier on and do my thing.

Just for fun...the #1 day 11 CPC analog is mid January 1966, the #2 is late January 1979. Both dates immediately proceeded 2 of our best snow blitzes (until 2010 of course) in history. Of course some of the other dates in the analog set are not as friendly...but almost all produced at least SOME snow. But the top 2 certainly shows there is big upside potential to this look.

I didn't say its not possible...but one of the reasons it resulted in that was that the NAO block retrograded so far SW that it blocked the western trough from "sliding under" and progressing east...so it dug in and pumped the heights even more...add in that the high latitude ridge was so far south...in southern Canada...and a link up was natural. Yes that could happen...and would happen if the block really does retrograde to south of Hudson Bay...but I find that a little extreme. It's more likely the block doesn't retrograde that far SW, that is extremely rare.

Gefs and eps are similar wrt h5 progression but the eps is simply more suppressive under the block next week so the west to east boundary storms ride is further south which is better for us. Not shocked the euro op caved to gfs progression wrt the northern stream though since the eps always favored that progression. It never had much support. The split can still work (as we saw on last nights runs) if the block asserts itself enough.