psuhoffman

@CAPE @frd Sorry I didn't respond earlier today I have been very busy. But wanted to comment on your posts early this morning regarding the pattern in general. CAPE your point about where we have been and going is 100% accurate so this is not meant to be confrontational...in the current pattern we have NOT been able to develop enough domestic cold under the pacific flow into Canada for it to work out. We have had SW after SW track under us with nothing to show. But here is where I want to point out something...Posting the map CAPE showed earlier That pattern you are totally correct has NOT worked....but it is responsible for the vast majority of our MECS and HECS snowstorms. That look (+PNA,-NAO, Aleutian low, split flow) is the holy grail! Yes the Aleutian low pumps pac maritime air across Canada...but historically we have been ok with cold that develops UNDER the split flow. Its NOT a cold look. But a huge percentage of our snow came during that pattern when frankly had there not been a storm it would have been 50 degrees in DC that day. A LOT of our big snowstorms historically came with temps right near 32 degrees even with a saturated boundary layer. SO I am not disputing that this has not been working out for us lately...but I am also not willing to just throw that look away as not a good snow pattern because frankly if that no longer works...DC would average like 6" of snow and I am not exaggerating. Without all the snow we get from that split flow pattern there...DC's snow climo would be the same as TN or NC where they have to wait for some blue moon perfect storm of variables to come together ever few years to get snow. So lets hope this lack of success is bad luck and due to the really awful early season pattern and all the cold becoming locked on the other side of the globe. Because that pattern HAS to work...it is our best snow pattern and trust me no one will be happy with what our snow climo would look like if that no longer works. But...moving on where is this heading...I am using last nights run that CAPE posted because I have been too busy to really dig into todays stuff yet. Yes this is colder...but its also not going to produce a significant snowstorm. Look at where the flow is...waves are going to be coming in way too far north and east into the CONUS in that pattern to do us much good. That wave 1 full latitude ridge west trough east look is just a cold/dry look. But luckily its temporary and we head towards this look after... This has more potential. But let me point out...where that EPO ridge is located is way too far west to do us any good if it wasn't for the -NAO and the displaced TPV in southeast Canada. There is only 2 ways to really get snow here from an EPO driven pattern. Luckily one is that right there...to get a displaced TPV in southeast Canada. The other is to have a very rare positively tilted EPO ridge that extends into the Yukon. That was how 2014 worked at times. But both of those are extremely rare. We have had several EPO patterns in the last 5 years that did not produce any significant snowfall for Baltimore/DC. That is way more common. So that goes back to my point above...we really don't want to have to rely on getting all the little details needed that rarely happen to make an EPO pattern our best snowfall one. It might work here because we also have a -NAO and favorable TPV location...but the EPO will never be a reliable index for snowfall because it requires other rare variables for it to be helpful. Otherwise it dumps the cold into the west and yes that bleeds east behind storms but then retreats anytime a wave amplifies because the trough axis it too far to our west. That look above though...the NAO/displaced TPV will resist a SE ridge and force that cold to turn east under the blocking and set up a gradient for storms to ride. The danger though is if storms do not dig far enough south it just becomes a cold dry pattern. Longer term the dangers is if the NAO/AO back off too much the gradient will end up to our NW. But that right there is a good look and promising. But in the broader since I am not willing to just throw out a pattern (split flow -NAO) that accounts for like 75% of our snowfall! Lets hope that isn't necessary and this year is just more bad luck then anything else.

That’s common in a blocking pattern. We don’t need every SW to amplify just one or two. Could it just be cold/dry...yes that’s happened before. Or one wave amplifies and we get a big snow.

Move to Boone

I know the vortex west of AK was preventing cross polar flow. But it was also preventing a typical Nina response in the PAC longwave pattern by suppressing the central pac ridge. Our longwave pattern purely from a storm track POV has been perfect but we just needed that to back off some. I wanted to take my chances that we eventually get cold enough in that look. But the N PAC vortex looks to exit completely. That means a ridge through AK will pop and we will get cold injected into the pattern. But it also means the we will be fighting attempts to build an eastern ridge in that longwave pattern. The ridge will end up too far west without that vortex to suppress it and shunt it east. So long as there is still good blocking that can work. If the AO remains negative it will squeeze the trough far enough southeast to get the thermal gradient into the east despite the SE ridge. That could set up a 2014 type look. But the danger is if the blocking relaxes the gradient will likely end up to our NW.

@Ji if we fail it won’t be because the blocking failed. We have had a favorable high latitude regime since November. The AO has been as negative as can be realistically hoped for. The NAO has been negative in general too. The blocking has shifted around and waxed and waned but it’s been consistently there. Just putting this out there because for years the most common cause of pattern fail was a failure of projected blocking to materialize. This isn’t that. The long range guidance has nailed the general longwave patterns. They just haven’t produced the expected benefits given their generally favorable looks. We’ve had a -AO+PNA in the means for 6 weeks!!!! From range those generalities are all you can assess. But as wxusaf said...going through weeks of that kind of pattern with barely a flake is monumentally bad luck!

It retrogrades west after that but you knew that...

GEFS is really going bonkers with the Greenland block signature around day 10

Brrrr i can already feel it Does it make you blue

@stormtracker @Ji this needs to go away. GFS actually had an excellent representation of the wave in the Miss Valley but it’s can’t amplify and pump and ridge in front with that there. NAM doesn’t have that feature and that’s why it was coming north had it gone out 12 more hours.

If the precip was heavier and more organized it would be snow. The warmth is pretty shallow. But light rain won’t cut it to cool the boundary layer.

Slower would allow the flow to relax to our northeast and allow the stronger NS wave behind a chance to catch and phase.

Something has to give. We have had predominant -AO years we failed to cash in before but they are examples where I wonder how we only got 15” instead of 30 not where we get totally shut out.

But the tear concerns me

Ask @EastCoast NPZ he lived there

@WxUSAF @CAPE This is a 10 day mean day 6-16. If we can’t snow with this pattern in mid to late January then it’s time to let @Ji loose on one of his scorched earth burn it to the ground epic tirades. I’ll even join in.

Only our feelings are allowed to be blue

The end result is the run ends at 90 hours

The best window is just starting to enter range. I expect to see those maps light up a bit more in the next few days.

@Ji @WxUSAF @CAPE 3 of the last 4 runs of the op gfs have looked like the ensembles do day 10-15. and suddenly we’re seeing snow in that period almost every run. This run was about to bury us at the end. I also doubt that day 10 storm lifts that far north before jumping to the coast. But the main point is the op gfs is hinting how that pattern would play out.

It’ll be gone in 12 days

Upstairs is fun for a while but blue without blue makes me red

@Maestrobjwa I really hope this doesn’t cross a line. What I am about to say comes from a place of caring and compassion not derision. And while I am not a psychiatrist I am a sociologist and I stayed at a holiday inn express once so consider my suggestion... Stop worrying about what someone thinks of Ji. Stop worrying about what they think of you. Stop worrying about if it’s going to snow. Stop worrying about defending how you worry. Stop worrying about worrying. Just stop worrying. Find something you enjoy that brings you peace in the moment and do that more. If you have anxiety I seriously suggest you not invest your emotions in something that is unpredictable and you have no control in and is guaranteed to disappoint you 99% of the time! That’s a really bad idea. Do things that give you agency over your emotions. Life’s too short to torture yourself. Plenty of other people will do that for you!

The snow is a big part but it’s also really nice here in the summer when it’s 92 degrees near 95 and I’m 83 with a cool breeze. I’m closer to outdoor activities I like here. I also don’t mind the drive. It’s time to meditate, reflect, and decompress. Sometimes get caught up on news or make phone calls. It’s productive. I could work up here but I like what I’m doing working with inner city kids. I don’t know if I’ll have the energy to do it forever but for now it works.

I feel like a broken record but everything really is progressing in the way we outlined a week ago and is typical of a blocking regime. There has been no degradation of the progression. The only let down is there was hope we “could” score something during the early phase of the blocking with some luck. My optimism for the Jan 15-30 hasn’t waned but waiting sucks. But I do keep having this thought lately...and touched on it with wxusaf earlier, it seems we don’t luck into minor events in decent patterns anymore. Waiting a while into a blocking pattern isn’t unusual. But in the past we usually had minor events along the way. 1995/6 we didn’t have any warning events until Jan 7 and that block established in early December but we had a string of minor events along the way. Lately it feels like we wait around for a perfect setup to get a big storm and otherwise it’s shutout city where we can’t even get a car topper. That makes this harder. Even a couple 1-2” events would probably make the mood more bearable. you are really funny sometimes sometimes